WI Machukuo Survived?

How would the modern world and immediate post WWII world be affected if Japan's puppet state in Manchuria survived? And what about if it had been dominated wholly by the USSR at the end of WWII?
 
How would the modern world and immediate post WWII world be affected if Japan's puppet state in Manchuria survived? And what about if it had been dominated wholly by the USSR at the end of WWII?

Much more hostility between the PRC and USSR, if Mao was still able to win the CCW, which is far from certain since he'll have no Manchuria to retreat into. The Nationalists would also hate a Communist Manchuria.

If it survived under Pu-Yi...uh, well, I would have a difficult time seeing that without some sort of foreign backer.
 
How would the modern world and immediate post WWII world be affected if Japan's puppet state in Manchuria survived? And what about if it had been dominated wholly by the USSR at the end of WWII?
How?

Seriously, the only way I can see this happening is if Japan wins the Second Sino-Japanese War (or the war doesn't happen in the first place), but that would have utterly huge implications of anything...

I think relations between Stalin and Mao were fairly good, weren't they? I don't see why Stalin would prop up Manchuria as a non-China puppet state. However, if it did happen, the KMT would probably be in a better position with regards to taking over the rest of China, I would think? Though the People's Republic of Manchukuo could decide to give bases and aid to the CCP.
 
How?

Seriously, the only way I can see this happening is if Japan wins the Second Sino-Japanese War (or the war doesn't happen in the first place), but that would have utterly huge implications of anything...

What if tension between the nationalists and the communists erupted during the war? And Japan's chance of keeping Manchuria is pretty much nil, unless America doesn't nuke them which would have even bigger effects on the world. And even then they'd have the Soviets to deal with.
 
I thought that was just a misconception based on the fact that they were both Communist. I'd like some verification though now that it's been brought up.
IIRC the Sino-Soviet split was brought about because Khruschiev (sic) was moving away from strict Stalinist praxis. There was certainly friction between Mao and Stalin, mostly due to Stalin's overt support for the Nationalists before and during the Japanese invasion and occupation, but the real breach developed later.
 
What if tension between the nationalists and the communists erupted during the war? And Japan's chance of keeping Manchuria is pretty much nil, unless America doesn't nuke them which would have even bigger effects on the world. And even then they'd have the Soviets to deal with.
Tensions between Nationalists and Communists DID erupt during the war- Chiang Kai-Shek had to be kidnapped just to agree to fight Japan to begin with, he always saw the Communists as the real enemy and Japan as a lesser threat... Look at the New Fourth Army Incident, for just one of several examples.

Japan might have been able to hold Manchuria if they didn't keep going into China, or maybe if the Second Sino-Japanese War hadn't turned into the Pacific Front... But I'm not entirely sure on this.
 
How would the modern world and immediate post WWII world be affected if Japan's puppet state in Manchuria survived? And what about if it had been dominated wholly by the USSR at the end of WWII?
I would say that easiest way to keep Manchuria around is to have stronger KMT regime (able to kick Mao out of Manchuria) in 1945. Stalin would be interested in a buffer between him and American-aligned KMT.
 
If Japan had left the U.S., the U.K., the Dutch and the French alone, and invaded the Soviet Union instead, Manchukuo might still exist. This could only have happened if the West had stopped supporting the Chinese KMT and ended the sanctions against Japan, enabling them to purchase oil and whatever else they needed, and if Germany and its allies had won the victory at Stalingrad.
I believe history shows that Japan didn't want a united China. China probably would have been balkanized, as it was under Japanese occupation in OTL, into several satellite states, with varying degrees of autonomy, all part of the Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere. Although today's scholars scornfully dismiss Manchukuo as a "puppet state" with no legitimacy, had the Japanese been successful, we would probably not doubt its right to nationhood. Manchukuo, Mengjiang, and the Republic of the Far East might all have endured, and gained acknowledgement as sovereign nations, had things turned out differently.
 

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The best scenario that has the fewest possible butterflies for this is a negociated peace with Japan. Lets say, "No unconditional surrender"; things proceeds on schedule until Germany surrenders (Maybe a few days early), but when Japan is the only foe left, without the solid unconditional surrender doctrine, they capitulate several months early, and there is no soviet invasion. They have to pull of everywhere, but Manchukuo survives officially as an independent state.

Could it become a nationalist base against Communist China? Would be neat to have "Two Chinas" on the mainland itself. Desire to oppose the spread of Communism would make the US rapidly interested in the defense of the country against the communists. The Korean and Manchu war of 1949-1954?
 
since it was occupied by the Soviets in 1945 it would make sense it becomes a Soviet ally right next to the Mongolian Peoples Republic, if Mao is less successful in the CCW
this would not mean so much "two Chinas" as much as simply one Koumintang China and a big Soviet union with tens of millions of people extra, even if officially Manchuria, whatever it be called, might have some autonomy and its own great leader figure

then if the rest of China still becomes communist, it is likely to be heavily influenced by the Soviets also

this might also mean no Korean war, as the more direct Soviet backing would probably mean Korean Peoples Army runs over south Korea even faster and stays there, leaving maybe a small western backed enclave

alternatively it might go like Yugoslavia, being a Soviet ally for a while, but backing out when Stalin starts to put more preassure on them

in any case it is not likely it becomes any kind of nationalist state, what with the Soviets right there next to them
 
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