WI: MacArthur runs as an Independent in 1952.

What if Douglas MacArthur decided to run as an Independent candidate for POTUS after Eisenhower wins the Republican nomination?

  • Does this take votes away from Ike?
  • How does this effect who the Democrats nominate (do they still pick Stevenson)?
  • Would President Truman try to undermine MacArthur's candidacy?
  • Would MacArthur actually have a chance of winning?
  • Would Senator Taft still endorse and campaign for Ike after MacArthur got into the race?
  • What else could've happened?
 
IIRC, MacArthur didn't even win Wisconsin (considered his home state) in the 1948 primaries. This defeat ended his Presidential aspirations.

Assuming you can wave this away and somehow encourage him to run as an Independent in 1952, I think the turn Korea took for the worse after the Chinese got involved would really hurt MacArthur. Many at the time felt he wandered into a "Chinese trap" in Korea at the end of 1950. I don't see him running in 1952 under any circumstances and if he did, I doubt he would affect the outcome much. While MacArthur had some support, he was a very controversial figure, going all the way back to his actions dealing with the Bonus Army in the 1930s. Eisenhower, on the other hand, is not controversial and seen in the U.S. as the one who beat the Nazis and led NATO during some of the worst of the Cold War. There is nothing to tarnish Ike's laurels in 1952 but Mac comes with a lot of baggage.
 
Whilst it depends on his platform, money and organisation, I doubt he could break double figures in percentage of the popular vote, or win any electoral votes. Whilst he would take a lot of the wind out of Ike's sails, I doubt it would be enough to spoil the election.
 
Negligible Effect....

Well, for starters, MacArthur would not have given the keynote address at the 1952 Republican National Convention that July if he was running as an Independent. He also would not have endorsed Taft for President if he was running as an Independent himself. To some extent, MacAthur's conservative candidacy may have underminded the conservative Taft's chances of winning the Republican nomination.

Ike was obviously more popular that MacArthur in 1952, among Republicans as well as among the U.S. electorate at large. By 1952, MacArthur at age 72 was too old, and, perhaps, would have been better off retiring from the Army and actively running as a Republican four years earlier in 1948.

Ike's margin of victory over Stevenson was 10.5% in the popular vote, and he won 39 out of the then-48 states. Stevenson won 9 states, all of them Southern or Border States, but lost the states of Texas, Florida, Tennessee and Virginia to Ike. My guess is that MacArthur would not have won any states outright or any electroral votes, but may have shaved up to 2% or so off of Ike's popular vote margin nationally--not enough to have any effect on the outcome.
 
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