WI Macarthur replaced as senior commander in the Philippines before Dec '41

Brierton [sp] was until Sunderland and Dugout Doug stopped him. This whole episode is quite confusing. Some sources state there was no intel on Formosa, but other sources have pilots swearing they saw detailed photos _prior_ to the outbreak of war. If so, who flew these recon missions and when?

The other problem is the reason the Japanese bombers aren't taking off; the fog. I can't see the B-17's hitting anything, even assuming they manage to find Formosa in the first place. As best they just drop bombs randomly and probably hit nothing of military value.

A really good question, worth some serious digging. Bereton was very anxious to launch a strike, causing one to wonder if he knew something we did not. My impression is the recon planes were to radio their visual observations back imeadiatly. Mainly if the Japanese aircraft were on which airfields. When you think about it waiting four more hours for photographs makes no sense when a radio message would suffice.

The fog could be a show stopper, tho those familar with low altitude ground fog might see the opportunity. One might also look a the timing, if the B17s arrive just as the fog has cleared and the Japanese bombers are lined up to launch...

Interception of the B17 is problematic, Over Raubal eight months later the Japanese could intercept only when warning came in from observation stations at some distance. Some times they had a CAP in position more often not. I dont have exact numbers, but it appears that less than one of three B17 actually attacked by the Japanese fighters was lost.
 
I find it very improbable IJA had anything to spare.

Japan did have to keep a significant amount of troops in the Philippines. There are still 260,000 guerrilla troops and unaccounted more anti-Japanese movement supporters. Had the Japanese left only a small amount of their troops, It would have been overwhelmed. Much like in the American Revolution. When the British left a city or any occupation, the American militia would just reoccupy.

If the 1944/45 Philippine Liberation Japanese casualties was any indication, Japan probably placed around 300k +/- soldiers stationed in the Philippines.
 
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