WI Macarthur replaced as senior commander in the Philippines before Dec '41

Who would be a good and convenient replacement and how would he fare in the coming campaign? I assume that without Macarthur's staggering blunders and abandonment of the Philippines, Japanese manpower in the Pacific would be stretched far thinner than IOTL.
 

Hoist40

Banned
But what would they do differently?

Immediate pull back to Bataan? But then the Japanese would not need a lot of troops to blockade them there and it would mean that most US aircraft in Luzon would either have to pull out or be abandoned since Bataan had few runways.

Fight the Japanese on the beaches? You still have the problem of troop quality, quantity and equipment shortages. You have one under strength US division. One poorly trained, under strength and poorly equipped Philippine Army regular division. 10 very poorly trained and equipped Philippine Army reserve divisions. Not good for any battles requiring maneuver.

Guerrilla warfare? Easier said then done, especially since it would be hard for so many troops to live off the land and even harder for the US to supply them. Especially since the Japanese are not known for being kind to civilians helping guerrillas.

Yes, MacArthur could have done better but not by s huge amount. He could have bombed Formosa but without proper intelligence and with only a few dozen early model B-17’s it would not accomplish much. He could have put a lot more supplies in Bataan but it just delays surrender . He could have arranged some guerrilla warfare but it would not really harm the Japanese much.
 
Agreed, the situation was so FUBARed nothing could help it. About the only help would be a better chance of not getting his air force caught on the ground. Even that only buys a little extra time which, with no help coming, won't be of any value.

Removing MacArthur means the one who deserves the greatest blame for what's about to happen isn't there to face the music in person...
 
All that the troops in the PI can do is tangle up Japanese forces for as long as possible. A rational defense plan (no attempt at stopping on the beaches just delaying), proper response to the PH warning & use of AF assets, moving supplies to Bataan earlier, perhaps moving some troops/stuff to southern islands & setting up a separate command that can't be surrendered from Luzon would all mean it takes longer and more Japanese effort to take the PI, more Japanese casualties and equipment loss.

The reality is that all the troops and every bit of equipment the USA has in the PI except for ships that can escape and a few troops that were evacuated are a total loss. However if you delay the surrender of Bataan/Corregidor by 2 months (and even then the surrendered troops not so starved so a better chance of survival as POWs), and have a campaign in the southern islands this costs the Japanese time, troops, equipment, and fuel that they cannot afford to lose. All of this can be done by MacArthur without a single bit of "extra" stuff coming from the USA. It is entirely possible that some resupply might reach troops in the southern PI, not enough to prevent eventual loss but enough to drag it on longer...
 
Hoist40 said:
But what would they do differently?
Bomb Formosa before the Japanese arrived to wipe out half the B-17s in the P.I. at a stroke, for a start.
Hoist40 said:
Immediate pull back to Bataan?
Fighting withdrawal does make sense. In any event, the waste of food & medicine wouldn't happen, & the defenders would hold better & longer, which is bad news for Japan.

Depending on when MacArthur is replaced, there's some chance of the P.I. getting more ammo, too.
Hoist40 said:
with only a few dozen early model B-17’s it would not accomplish much.
Hitting the Japanese airbases with the birds on the ground? Why would that be less damaging than what Japan achieved?:confused:
Hoist40 said:
more supplies in Bataan but it just delays surrender
Ever day Japan is delayed is a day she can't spare, ever soldier held in P.I. is one not available somewhere else. Japan's timetable was so finely balanced, disaster looms everywhere. It scarcely takes anything to provoke it.
 
Who would be a good and convenient replacement and how would he fare in the coming campaign? I assume that without Macarthur's staggering blunders and abandonment of the Philippines, Japanese manpower in the Pacific would be stretched far thinner than IOTL.

Quite difficult to remove MacArthur since he was also appointed as a field marshal of the Filipinos by the local Philippine government.

For the initial attacks, both the allied forces and Japan had equal manpower.

The pincer movements were also not well defended since there were two landings in the southern Luzon but majority of defense was in northern Luzon.

The US also did not take advantage of the manpower available in the islands which can be used for mass conscription.

Although Throughly Arming and training the locals is a double edge sword. Had USA done this, There was no need for Japan to invade since locals might just rebel on an earlier time vs USA. Too many revolutionaries, rebels, katipuneros, still alive in the Philippines 1940s who fought both Spain and USA 40 years earlier.
 
Quite difficult to remove MacArthur since he was also appointed as a field marshal of the Filipinos by the local Philippine government.

The politics of MacArthurs position are a bit understudied. I am unsure if even tomes like Manchesters biography get to the bottom of that. To remove Mac as overall commander you have to reach far back into the politics of the 1930s, or fairy dust in a accident or health failure.

For the initial attacks, both the allied forces and Japan had equal manpower.

The pincer movements were also not well defended since there were two landings in the southern Luzon but majority of defense was in northern Luzon.

The US also did not take advantage of the manpower available in the islands which can be used for mass conscription.

Although Throughly Arming and training the locals is a double edge sword. Had USA done this, There was no need for Japan to invade since locals might just rebel on an earlier time vs USA. Too many revolutionaries, rebels, katipuneros, still alive in the Philippines 1940s who fought both Spain and USA 40 years earlier.

There was also the problem of Depression era funding. Real money did not flow into the PI armed forces until after the start of the war in Europe in 1939, and then the panic following the collapse of France in 1940. The US Army was still severely underfunded in 1937-38 so breaking loose money from anywhere for the PI military was anathema to the fiscal mindset of the US Congress.
 
There was also the problem of Depression era funding. Real money did not flow into the PI armed forces until after the start of the war in Europe in 1939, and then the panic following the collapse of France in 1940. The US Army was still severely underfunded in 1937-38 so breaking loose money from anywhere for the PI military was anathema to the fiscal mindset of the US Congress.

Come to think of it, they should have fought Manila house to house rather than declaring it an open City since it would be leveled by 1945 anyways.
 

Hoist40

Banned
.
Depending on when MacArthur is replaced, there's some chance of the P.I. getting more ammo, too.
Why would some other general get more ammo? Until late july 1941 there was no priority for the Philippines and little was sent. After July 1941 the Philippines had a much higher priority but there was either not enough shipping to send more or none available.

Hitting the Japanese airbases with the birds on the ground? Why would that be less damaging than what Japan achieved?:confused:

Problem is they did not know where the Japanese airbases were. That is why they were preparing to send out two B-17’s equipped with cameras to do a reconnaissance. Formosa was a closed island to most foreigners and the US had no spies similar to what the Japanese had. The only place they had any real information about was the main harbor since it was also a commercial harbor and so there was information available.

So if the B-17’s did get sent to bomb Formosa it would have been the harbor not the airfields at least until they got some photo information back from the two B-17. That is if they found the airfields and managed to get back since they were early model B-17’s with no powered gun turrets or tail guns.

Ever day Japan is delayed is a day she can't spare, ever soldier held in P.I. is one not available somewhere else. Japan's timetable was so finely balanced, disaster looms everywhere. It scarcely takes anything to provoke it.
Not for the first six months, the allies had little to fight with and the Japanese had a big advantage at sea and in the air both in quality and quantity. On land the numbers were more equal but the Japanese had a big edge on quality. Keeping a couple of Japanese divisions in the Philippines for a few more months would not change much
 

Hoist40

Banned
There was also the problem of Depression era funding. Real money did not flow into the PI armed forces until after the start of the war in Europe in 1939, and then the panic following the collapse of France in 1940. The US Army was still severely underfunded in 1937-38 so breaking loose money from anywhere for the PI military was anathema to the fiscal mindset of the US Congress.

Actually it was even later then that. It was not until late July 1941 after the oil embargo that either the US Army in the Philippines or the Philippine Army got any significant increase in money, personnel or equipment.

The only increase prior to that was the increase of the Philippine Scouts from 6000 to 12,000 personnel in early 1941. There was also some spending in early 1941 for air bases but most of the work was not completed before the war started
 
Problem is they did not know where the Japanese airbases were. That is why they were preparing to send out two B-17’s equipped with cameras to do a reconnaissance. Formosa was a closed island to most foreigners and the US had no spies similar to what the Japanese had. The only place they had any real information about was the main harbor since it was also a commercial harbor and so there was information available.

So if the B-17’s did get sent to bomb Formosa it would have been the harbor not the airfields at least until they got some photo information back from the two B-17. That is if they found the airfields and managed to get back since they were early model B-17’s with no powered gun turrets or tail guns.

Brierton [sp] was until Sunderland and Dugout Doug stopped him. This whole episode is quite confusing. Some sources state there was no intel on Formosa, but other sources have pilots swearing they saw detailed photos _prior_ to the outbreak of war. If so, who flew these recon missions and when?

The other problem is the reason the Japanese bombers aren't taking off; the fog. I can't see the B-17's hitting anything, even assuming they manage to find Formosa in the first place. As best they just drop bombs randomly and probably hit nothing of military value.

And you're right, if the Japanese get fighters off these early B-17's are going to take serious losses...
 

NothingNow

Banned
The A6M is a highly flammable, highly vulnerable deathtrap.

It's also highly maneuverable, fast and has a pair of 20mm cannon. Compared to the USAAC P-35s, P-36s and Philippine P-26s that were much of the air power in the Philippines it's a very dangerous adversary.

An A6M model 21 also has around twice the range of a P-36A. That's not exactly a winning combination for an escort mission.
 

Hoist40

Banned
Also the US fighters did not have any oxygen in the Philippines which would prevent them from climbing to a good cruising altitude.

The B-17’s had a limited amount of oxygen that they had brought from the US.

The only oxygen plant in the Philippines was a small commercial one which the Navy had access too. The Army Air force was shipping an oxygen plant to the Philippines but it did not arrive before the war started.
 

GarethC

Donor
The P-40's don't have the range to escort them, much less the P-36's...

Don't forget, nobody knows just how good the A6M is yet except Pearl Harbor...

Are there A6Ms on Formosa? I thought they were IJA bombers, which would imply Ki-43s.
 
eltf177 said:
The P-40's don't have the range to escort them, much less the P-36's...
AAF doctrine was for bombers to defend themselves.

And they'd have faced IJAAF, so, what, Ki-43s then?
Hoist40 said:
Problem is they did not know where the Japanese airbases were.
I've seen conflicting accounts on this, some saying there was prewar recce done.
managed to get back since they were early model B-17’s with no powered gun turrets or tail guns.
The Japanese fighters only had a couple of 7.7mm, & found the B-17 a tough target.
Hoist40 said:
Keeping a couple of Japanese divisions in the Philippines for a few more months would not change much
So no troops were kept out of Malaya? None would have been diverted from MO? Or Kokoda?

I find it very improbable IJA had anything to spare.
 
All B-17s were tough targets for Japanese fighters. Whether B-17 bombs would have destroyed anything of consequence is moot.

The first air attack which destroyed half the FEAF was an all IJN/Mitsubishi show with G3M & G4M bombers and A6M fighters from bases on Formosa. Nakajima Ki-27 Nate fighters were available on Formosa, with the IJA fleet.

The blame for the farm is impossible to pin down, but, like Hitler sleeping through Normandy, Dougie somehow missed the morning, and seemed unaware of communications between his aide, and Brereton. Further down the line was the failure of the early warning system based on a single radar station, with everyone involved testifying it wasn't his fault. They could have used Dowding, but that would require Doug's permission. Mixing public image building, politics and military matters at the same time is a hard row to hoe.
 
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