Sigismund von Luxembourg, monarch of multiple kingdoms in the late 14th and early 15th centuries and eventual Holy Roman Emperor, has always struck me as someone who managed to be quite successful in spite of having had very bad luck. But let's say, this time around, things go a bit better from the beginning.
In the 1380s, while still quite young, Sigismund was seemingly in line to become King of Poland, but a faction of the Polish nobility turned on him, leading to Ladislaus Jagiello of Lithuania becoming ruler instead. TTL, Sigismund is crowned and manages to consolidate control. With Polish resources at his back, he has an easier time staking his claim to the throne of Hungary, removing the necessity of pawning his possession of Brandenburg off to his cousin Jobst. In 1395 his Hungarian wife, who died OTL in a hunting accident while carrying his unborn heir, avoids her fate and delivers a son, with more children possibly on the way.
The next year, Sigismund helped lead the Nicopolis Crusade against the Ottomans. Originally, he was supposed to be joined by a Franco-English contingent led by John of Gaunt, Philip of Burgundy, and Louis of Orleans. OTL, none of these actually joined; the English failed to show up completely, while the French were led by the inexperienced John the Fearless, whose disregard for Sigismund's tactical advice contributed to a crushing Christian defeat. TTL, however, either John, Philip and Louis actually show up, or Sigismund's stronger position is enough to result in a crusader victory in spite of French incompetence. As a result, the Ottomans are badly beaten, suffering a severe setback in their efforts to conquer Europe (considering they are about to be hit by Timur, this could lead to the end of the Ottoman Empire entirely). Meanwhile, Sigismund's prestige back home continues to rise.
When Sigismund's incompetent, alcoholic brother Wenceslaus of Bohemia is deposed as King of the Romans by the German pretender Rupert (as OTL), Sigismund is able to react more forcefully, with Jobst, lacking Brandenburg, not being powerful enough to interfere as he did OTL. Wenceslaus is either crowned Holy Roman Emperor as Sigismund's puppet, with Sigismund eventually succeeding him having already successfully replaced him as King of Bohemia (as he attempted to do OTL even as he was pushing to have Wenceslaus crowned HRE), or just dies earlier and leaves Bohemia and the Empire to Sigismund sooner. Jobst, meanwhile, dies on schedule in 1411 or sooner, while Jan Hus remains alive, with some of his ideas possibly included in the resolution of Sigismund's Catholic schism-ending Council of Constance (at which he was historically burned at the stake; while Sigismund was seemingly opposed to this, and was absent from the Council when Hus was executed, the Bohemians blamed him, and rose in revolt when he succeeded Wenceslaus, triggering the Hussite wars).
The end result of all this is that, by 1419 (Wenceslaus' historical death) at the latest, Sigismund is simultaneously Holy Roman Emperor, king of Bohemia, Poland, Hungary and Croatia, and Margrave of Brandenburg, with at least one male heir. It would have been very challenging, of course, to hold such a realm together, but the consequences of its existence are potentially massive. A continued Luxembourg line means no Hapsburg rise to dominance, and the potential existence of a massive multi-ethnic Central European polity in the Hapsburg mold many years ahead of schedule.
How plausible is the scenario I outlined above? What are the odds of this realm, which could perhaps be called Luxembourg, surviving beyond Sigismund's death (or perhaps dividing and eventually re-coalescing, as the Hapsburg domains did historically)? There is a challenge inherent in the fact that Bohemia, Poland and Hungary were all elective kingdoms with powerful noble classes, and it would be very difficult for the Luxembourgs to hold any one of them, let alone all of them, permanently, but stranger things have happened, haven't they? One thing that's probably inevitable, though, is that, with the Luxembourgs having to focus so much on domains outside the HRE, imperial authority decays even further than it did under the Hapsburgs; what does this mean for Germany? Also, what might become of an Ottoman-less Balkans? The possibilities here are seemingly endless, from a limited Byzantine revival, to a restored Latin Empire or a renewed Bulgaria, a different Turkish or Timurid successor state rising, or the Luxembourg polity asserting dominance. How would Jagiellon Lithuania without Poland, meanwhile, fare in the struggle against the Teutonic knights? Could this lead to either a surviving Teutonic state, or a Lithuanian Prussia?
Overall, Sigismund's life seems to be one that has underrated potential to completely alter the trajectory of European history. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
In the 1380s, while still quite young, Sigismund was seemingly in line to become King of Poland, but a faction of the Polish nobility turned on him, leading to Ladislaus Jagiello of Lithuania becoming ruler instead. TTL, Sigismund is crowned and manages to consolidate control. With Polish resources at his back, he has an easier time staking his claim to the throne of Hungary, removing the necessity of pawning his possession of Brandenburg off to his cousin Jobst. In 1395 his Hungarian wife, who died OTL in a hunting accident while carrying his unborn heir, avoids her fate and delivers a son, with more children possibly on the way.
The next year, Sigismund helped lead the Nicopolis Crusade against the Ottomans. Originally, he was supposed to be joined by a Franco-English contingent led by John of Gaunt, Philip of Burgundy, and Louis of Orleans. OTL, none of these actually joined; the English failed to show up completely, while the French were led by the inexperienced John the Fearless, whose disregard for Sigismund's tactical advice contributed to a crushing Christian defeat. TTL, however, either John, Philip and Louis actually show up, or Sigismund's stronger position is enough to result in a crusader victory in spite of French incompetence. As a result, the Ottomans are badly beaten, suffering a severe setback in their efforts to conquer Europe (considering they are about to be hit by Timur, this could lead to the end of the Ottoman Empire entirely). Meanwhile, Sigismund's prestige back home continues to rise.
When Sigismund's incompetent, alcoholic brother Wenceslaus of Bohemia is deposed as King of the Romans by the German pretender Rupert (as OTL), Sigismund is able to react more forcefully, with Jobst, lacking Brandenburg, not being powerful enough to interfere as he did OTL. Wenceslaus is either crowned Holy Roman Emperor as Sigismund's puppet, with Sigismund eventually succeeding him having already successfully replaced him as King of Bohemia (as he attempted to do OTL even as he was pushing to have Wenceslaus crowned HRE), or just dies earlier and leaves Bohemia and the Empire to Sigismund sooner. Jobst, meanwhile, dies on schedule in 1411 or sooner, while Jan Hus remains alive, with some of his ideas possibly included in the resolution of Sigismund's Catholic schism-ending Council of Constance (at which he was historically burned at the stake; while Sigismund was seemingly opposed to this, and was absent from the Council when Hus was executed, the Bohemians blamed him, and rose in revolt when he succeeded Wenceslaus, triggering the Hussite wars).
The end result of all this is that, by 1419 (Wenceslaus' historical death) at the latest, Sigismund is simultaneously Holy Roman Emperor, king of Bohemia, Poland, Hungary and Croatia, and Margrave of Brandenburg, with at least one male heir. It would have been very challenging, of course, to hold such a realm together, but the consequences of its existence are potentially massive. A continued Luxembourg line means no Hapsburg rise to dominance, and the potential existence of a massive multi-ethnic Central European polity in the Hapsburg mold many years ahead of schedule.
How plausible is the scenario I outlined above? What are the odds of this realm, which could perhaps be called Luxembourg, surviving beyond Sigismund's death (or perhaps dividing and eventually re-coalescing, as the Hapsburg domains did historically)? There is a challenge inherent in the fact that Bohemia, Poland and Hungary were all elective kingdoms with powerful noble classes, and it would be very difficult for the Luxembourgs to hold any one of them, let alone all of them, permanently, but stranger things have happened, haven't they? One thing that's probably inevitable, though, is that, with the Luxembourgs having to focus so much on domains outside the HRE, imperial authority decays even further than it did under the Hapsburgs; what does this mean for Germany? Also, what might become of an Ottoman-less Balkans? The possibilities here are seemingly endless, from a limited Byzantine revival, to a restored Latin Empire or a renewed Bulgaria, a different Turkish or Timurid successor state rising, or the Luxembourg polity asserting dominance. How would Jagiellon Lithuania without Poland, meanwhile, fare in the struggle against the Teutonic knights? Could this lead to either a surviving Teutonic state, or a Lithuanian Prussia?
Overall, Sigismund's life seems to be one that has underrated potential to completely alter the trajectory of European history. I'd be interested to hear your thoughts.
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