WI: Lunalilo Lives

Tsao

Banned
King Kamehameha V, the last of the Kamehameha kings, died on December 11, 1872 without naming a successor. Under the Kingdom's 1864 constitution, if the king did not appoint a successor, a new king would be elected by the legislature from the eligible Hawaiian royals still alive. The other candidate was David Kalākaua. Lunalilo was the more popular of the two. His grandfather was Kalaimamahu, a half brother of Kamehameha I and was thus a cousin of King Kamehameha V. His grandmother was Queen Kalakua Kaheiheimalie, sister of Kamehameha’s favorite wife, Queen Kaʻahumanu. Because of this, many people believed the throne rightly belonged to Lunalilo since the only person more closely related to Kamehameha V, Bernice Pauahi Bishop, made clear she did not want the throne. Another contender was Princess Ruth Keʻelikōlani who was a half sister to King Kamehameha V. She was a favorite among the Hawaiian chiefs because of her adhering to the old Hawaiian ways. She was governess of Hawaii and refused to speak English even though she was fluent in it. Her genealogy, however, was too controversial and few people considered her suitable to take the throne. This left Kalākaua and Lunalilo, and of the two, Lunalilo was greatly favored. So great was Lunalilo's popularity that some people believed that Lunalilo could have simply walked into the capital and declared himself king. Lunalilo, however, insisted that the constitution be followed. He issued the following message six days after the death of Kamehameha V:
"Whereas, it is desirable that the wishes of the Hawaiian people be consulted as to a successor to the Throne, therefore, notwithstanding that according to the law of inheritance, I am the rightful heir to the Throne, in order to preserve peace, harmony and good order, I desire to submit the decision of my claim to the voice of the people."
Lunalilo, unlike his more conservative opponent, wanted to amend the constitution to make the government more democratic by removing property qualifications for voting. It was decided that there would be a popular election to give the people a chance to have their voices heard. However, because the constitution gave the legislature the power to decide who would be the next king, the popular election would be unofficial. Lunalilo urged the people of the Kingdom to have their voices heard.
The popular vote was held on January 1, 1873 and Lunalilo won by an overwhelming majority.[2] The week after the legislature unanimously voted Lunalilo king. It has been speculated that the reason for the unanimous vote was because each legislator was required to sign his name on the back of his ballot, and the legislators were afraid to go against the wishes of the people. Queen Emma later wrote in a letter that hundreds of Hawaiians were ready to tear to pieces anyone who opposed Lunalilo.[7]
At Lunalilo's coronation ceremony, held on January 9, 1873 at Kawaiahaʻo Church, the courtyard was filled to capacity and a large crowd watched from outside. Other sources give the date of his coronation as January 12. Because Lunalilo's popularity was so great, and because he became king through a democratic process, he became known as "The People's King."

IOTL, Lunalilo died of tuberculosis after only a year of rule, and was succeeded by Kalākaua, who was forced in 1887 by a group of anti-monarchists to sign the Bayonet Constitution, effectively removing the powers of the king. This constitution also changed voting requirements to favor European and American residents and wealthy Hawaiians.

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayonet_Constitution#Provisions)

So my question is, how would Hawaii be differently affected if Lunalilo had not died so quickly (or alternatively, if Kalākaua dies before Lunalilo)? I'm unsure of the POD needed for this to happen, and my grasp of Hawaiian history is pretty basic, so any help is appreciated.
 
I'm no expert in Hawaiian history, but this might actually have accelerated the kingdom's fall rather than preventing it. The "Bayonet Constitution" was called that for a reason - by the 1870s and 1880s, American interests were very powerful in Hawaii and were both willing and able to advance their agenda through force. Also, the Native Hawaiians were still a declining population at that time and were experiencing dieback from European diseases as well as dispossession of land, to the point where it was doubtful that they could mount meaningful resistance to an American-backed coup.

If Lunalilo had lived, and had tried to push American interests to the curb and reclaim the kingdom for the Hawaiians, it would have been he rather than Kalakaua who faced the bayonets, probably in the late 1870s or early 1880s. If he tried to resist, as Liliuokalani did in OTL, he might well have met Liliuokalani's fate or even been killed during the resulting coup. I'm not sure what the attitude of the United States government would have been at that time, but in OTL, while the United States opposed the coup against Liliuokalani, it didn't care enough to do anything about it (especially in the face of the planters' lobby) and I suspect the result would be similar in TTL. So a Hawaiian Republic in 1880-85, and annexation around 1890?

I'd appreciate correction by those who know more about Hawaiian history than I do.
 
I believe it depends on what he tries to do.
The idea of trying to make a deal with the US over letting Hawaiian sugar into the US tax free, but he dropped it after he realized how much opposition there was to it.

Unfortunately, I don't know enough about Lunalilo to comment further.
 
If I recall correctly there had been an idea floated during Lunalilo's reign, possibly initially supported by Charles Reed Bishop, that the Kingdom cede or loan Pearl Harbor to the United States. It wasn't well received by the native populace that convinced to withdraw the idea.

The best POD to getting Lunalilo to live longer would be his marriage to Princess Victoria Kamamalu Kamehameha. At one time in his youth Lunalilo had proposed to Victoria, but her brother, Kamehameha IV and Kamehameha V, forbade since Lunalilo came from a prestigious line of descendents from Kamehameha the Great - more prestigious than the Kamehameha line itself. He was more highly born than the future brother kings. Marriage may prove to be a stabilizing force in his life, or at least keep him sober.
 
If I recall correctly there had been an idea floated during Lunalilo's reign, possibly initially supported by Charles Reed Bishop, that the Kingdom cede or loan Pearl Harbor to the United States. It wasn't well received by the native populace that convinced to withdraw the idea.

I believe it was Pearl Harbor in exchange for sending sugar to the US tax free.
 
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