Tsao
Banned
King Kamehameha V, the last of the Kamehameha kings, died on December 11, 1872 without naming a successor. Under the Kingdom's 1864 constitution, if the king did not appoint a successor, a new king would be elected by the legislature from the eligible Hawaiian royals still alive. The other candidate was David Kalākaua. Lunalilo was the more popular of the two. His grandfather was Kalaimamahu, a half brother of Kamehameha I and was thus a cousin of King Kamehameha V. His grandmother was Queen Kalakua Kaheiheimalie, sister of Kamehameha’s favorite wife, Queen Kaʻahumanu. Because of this, many people believed the throne rightly belonged to Lunalilo since the only person more closely related to Kamehameha V, Bernice Pauahi Bishop, made clear she did not want the throne. Another contender was Princess Ruth Keʻelikōlani who was a half sister to King Kamehameha V. She was a favorite among the Hawaiian chiefs because of her adhering to the old Hawaiian ways. She was governess of Hawaii and refused to speak English even though she was fluent in it. Her genealogy, however, was too controversial and few people considered her suitable to take the throne. This left Kalākaua and Lunalilo, and of the two, Lunalilo was greatly favored. So great was Lunalilo's popularity that some people believed that Lunalilo could have simply walked into the capital and declared himself king. Lunalilo, however, insisted that the constitution be followed. He issued the following message six days after the death of Kamehameha V:
"Whereas, it is desirable that the wishes of the Hawaiian people be consulted as to a successor to the Throne, therefore, notwithstanding that according to the law of inheritance, I am the rightful heir to the Throne, in order to preserve peace, harmony and good order, I desire to submit the decision of my claim to the voice of the people."Lunalilo, unlike his more conservative opponent, wanted to amend the constitution to make the government more democratic by removing property qualifications for voting. It was decided that there would be a popular election to give the people a chance to have their voices heard. However, because the constitution gave the legislature the power to decide who would be the next king, the popular election would be unofficial. Lunalilo urged the people of the Kingdom to have their voices heard.
The popular vote was held on January 1, 1873 and Lunalilo won by an overwhelming majority.[2] The week after the legislature unanimously voted Lunalilo king. It has been speculated that the reason for the unanimous vote was because each legislator was required to sign his name on the back of his ballot, and the legislators were afraid to go against the wishes of the people. Queen Emma later wrote in a letter that hundreds of Hawaiians were ready to tear to pieces anyone who opposed Lunalilo.[7]
At Lunalilo's coronation ceremony, held on January 9, 1873 at Kawaiahaʻo Church, the courtyard was filled to capacity and a large crowd watched from outside. Other sources give the date of his coronation as January 12. Because Lunalilo's popularity was so great, and because he became king through a democratic process, he became known as "The People's King."
IOTL, Lunalilo died of tuberculosis after only a year of rule, and was succeeded by Kalākaua, who was forced in 1887 by a group of anti-monarchists to sign the Bayonet Constitution, effectively removing the powers of the king. This constitution also changed voting requirements to favor European and American residents and wealthy Hawaiians.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayonet_Constitution#Provisions)
So my question is, how would Hawaii be differently affected if Lunalilo had not died so quickly (or alternatively, if Kalākaua dies before Lunalilo)? I'm unsure of the POD needed for this to happen, and my grasp of Hawaiian history is pretty basic, so any help is appreciated.