WI : Luckier Japan…… not Manchuria

What if Japanese invasions of Korea (1592–98) happen 50 years later (during the Da Shun rebellion), resulting in Japan successful conquering China. What will this influence China, Korea and Japan?
Where will Chinese West border be?
 
It'd really depend on how it happens 50 years later. How militarized is Japanese society? (I think the OTL campaigns were to get rid of excess soldiers?) How much damage do the butterflies do? is there a military genius that can compare to Hideyoshi?

Also, considering how badly damaged Korea was following the Imjin War, they'd be able to put up a fight ITTL against the Manchus and Japanese. With an extra 50 years, Korea might be a tougher nut to crack.
 
It'd really depend on how it happens 50 years later. How militarized is Japanese society? (I think the OTL campaigns were to get rid of excess soldiers?) How much damage do the butterflies do? is there a military genius that can compare to Hideyoshi?

Also, considering how badly damaged Korea was following the Imjin War, they'd be able to put up a fight ITTL against the Manchus and Japanese. With an extra 50 years, Korea might be a tougher nut to crack.
Just assuming Japan get united 50 years later, leaded by a person whose ability is not far away from Hideyoshi. And he succeed to conquer China since Ming had collapsed.
 
But Japan was quite lucky when it came to Korea. The Joseon King Seonjo ignored the talk of Japan's unification and militarization and did not prepare the country at all for a war (forts, navy, military buildup) and tried to imprison Admiral Yi, who was rather successful in keeping the Japanese from resupplying, because he was afraid of a coup or some nonsense rather than his country being conquered. He also ignored new military technology like the arquebus because he looked down on the Japanese and Europeans. Hence the early Japanese success in the war, with them taking everything up to Pyongyang before the second year of war had passed. And Korea did end up becoming fairly militarized (had lots of firearms in the army) in the aftermath of the Manchu invasions (albeit too late, since the Qing had taken much of China when Hyojong took power and had his plans for a Manchuria campaign) within 50 years of the Japanese invasion. They were apparently quite good shots, I remember reading somewhere.

A more wary king would've kept tabs on Japan and prepared for war, even asked the Manchu for assistance (Nurhaci OTL did offer help, though most probably to gain intel on Joseon and Ming forces for his future plans).

As for conquering the Ming, the Japanese OTL did not endear themselves to the conquered (you know, burning and pillaging, kidnapping entire villages of artisans and looting, and taking ears and noses as trophies, and raping and kidnapping tends to do the opposite), hence the intense guerilla warfare from the Korean side. I don't imagine the Chinese would be fond of that either (the Manchu succeeded largely because of how many Han defectors there were).

They also need to fight their way through the Manchu, then to whomever controls Beijing, then manage that whole territory while fighting South China while occupying everything north of the Yangtze. If they keep up with the looting, raping, kidnapping style of conquest, that's going to be expensive, both in manpower and money. It'll be hard to hold that too, plus how much power gets divvied up (whoever controls the mainland holding would be way too powerful for the shogun to control). Also Sinicization, since those who conquer China tend to end up being conquered by Chinese culture.

Short term? Lots and lots of death. Long term? Eh, depends on how you do it. Lots of resentment, either way, but that's not new at all.
 
I think conquering Ming this way is not really going to work. For that to happen, the Japanese need the Mandate of Heaven.

A different approach instead:

1. have Japan unite way earlier to a centralized and very militaristic state.
2. have them conquer Korea
3. from Korea, expand to Manchuria, and assimilate them properly
4. when the Ming falters, have the Japanese effectively be in place of OTL Manchus, have them gain the Mandate of Heaven the same way
5. unite the Dragon and Chrysanthemum Thrones

No idea what PoD you would need for this.
 
So, how do you explain why the rebellions would still happen if Ming did not have to do the tremendous expenditures of helping Joseon in the Imjin War?
With or without the Japanese invasions, the Ming are still not in a good spot. They're still going to suffer famines due to the Little Ice Age and poor bureaucracy meant the damage from natural disasters couldn't be much alleviated. Assuming a similar course of silver shortages due to Spanish and Japanese policy and the subsequent hoarding of the stuff, the Ming economy suffers incredibly and taxation becomes an issue. The Manchu and Mongols are an everpresent threat and constant drain of money and manpower, the emperors were apparently disinterested in ruling and had eunuchs performing more and more tasks, the government grew factionalized, all pretty ripe seeds for calamity.

Of course, assuming Japan doesn't unify and subsequently go isolationist, then the silver problem is no where near as bad and the Ming aren't so screwed.

Rebellions could happen, the Ming weren't in the picture of health by the late 17th century, but they'd be better off, definitely. Depends on the outside world, though.
 
I would say this outside the realm of possibility. One there has to be a reason for this invasion, which the OTL invasion has been suggested for any amount of reasons from Hideyoshi carrying out the later dreams of Nobunaga to try and invade China, to trying to get military access from Korea, to force China to give Hideyoshi legitimacy, to trying to further curb an already highly militarized country.

Two, you're making the assumption that the Ming is going to collapse in this time, yes the Ming was in decline, but the Imjin was a drain on their resources. No OTL Imjin could very well prevent the Shun from even rising and leave the Ming better off for now.

Three, What happens to Japan in the meantime. No Imjin War may have Hideyoshi do more to consolidate his power, Hideyoshi has no real legitimacy he can only become Kampaku or regent since he was a peasant. His son Hideyori at least traced his lineage to the Fujiwara clan via the Oda his mother. granted since Hideyoshi only killed his nephew and family after 1593, he could not have them killed. The question is what does a theoretical Toyotomi Japan set it sights on doing in the meantime, now that it has legitimacy and power invading Korea or even China, would be foolish if there is no real reason to do so.

Fourth, too unwieldy to work. Sengoku Japan conquering China would have to deal with two serious issues the domestic situation of a feudal society in Japan, where you have provinces run by clans, who delegated power to retainers. At it's worst the Sengoku period saw the emperor reduced to a powerless figurehead, with the Shogun as another powerless figurehead to sometimes having clans lead by other powerless figureheads. With China a vast nation with a large bureaucracy to boot.

A Japanese China would lead two outcomes, either the leading figure whoever that maybe becomes emperor and deposes the Japanese Emperor or the Japanese Emperor becomes emperor of both nations with the Japanese feudalism transplanted to China where notable families become daimyo of sorts who answer to Shugo of provinces all under the command of a Shogun equivalent, which like on Japan could suffer the same problems if things get out of hand.
 
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