WI Louis XVI never calls the Estates-General

The situation was dire either way. I'm far from a specialist on the period so I can't give a precise answer but something would have happened.

Probably not a coup but maybe some revolts/independance? The financial situation was abysmal, there were famines...

Maybe he could have been strong handed into accepting some sort of constitution by enlightment aristocracy?
 
The problem is Louis XVI would still need to do something drastic about the deficit and the regressive tax policies that were fueling the chaos across the country. If you look at the Cahiers de Doleances that each commune prepared for the Estates General you can see the intense anger and frustration that the Third Estate felt.

If the King doesn't call an Estates General he probably faces growing dissent, particularly in Paris where food prices are spiraling (remember in 1789 just bread - whose price had gone up 88% 1788-1789 - was between 50% and 70% of the ENTIRE food of the poor). Although he might turn to the regional Parlements they are basically incapable of the reform on the tax code he needs - packed with nobles they aren't going to vote themselves away their exemptions any more than the Assembly of Notables would have.

What happens next? Hard to say. Maybe some sort of insurrection in Paris. Probably a series of provincial demonstrations and lobbying.

Its very unlikely that a compromise could be reached easily. Louis's actions OTL prove that he was never in favour of any sort of constitutional arrangement nor was much of the nobility who would be the prime movers in such a forced compromise.

You might see opponents come together to form some sort of rival unofficial Estates General around which the opposition would unite, maybe drawing inspiration from the USA or Britain but more likely inspired directly by ancient Rome.
 
To avoid calling an Estates General,Louis would have to not screw up his negotiations with the nobility.It's completely possible to not call an Estates General.Prior to the calling of the Estates General,Louis screwed up his negotiations with both the Assembly of Notables and the Parlement.The Assembly of Notables offered to raise taxes on the nobility with the condition that he allow the assembly to audit royal spending.For some fucked up reason,he refused to do that.Next,he went to the Parlement.Just when his financial minister Brienne managed to persuade the Parlement to register the new taxes,Louis for some reason showed up and ordered them to raise taxes.The King turning up and ordering them to register the raising of new taxes provoked them into defying him.He could have easily prevented fucking all of these steps and gotten new taxes.More easily,he shouldn't have reinstated the Parlements,which had been abolished by his grandfather to begin with.
 
If you want Louis XVI to not call the Estates-General then you need a different Louis XVI. I mean seriously, while Louis Auguste came off as a good person he made a terrible King. He let himself be bullied by his ministers, his brothers, his aunts, the clergy and the nobility. The few times he grew a backbone he made the situation much worse (ex the Diamond necklace affair). The only way his reign could have ended better would be to give him a personality transplant.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
This might be better for the monarchists as they could simply end up repressing provincial bread revolts rather than putting a crap ton of angry reformers in the same location, which just so happened to be the most radical in the nation due to its high literacy rate and vibrant but downwardly mobile middle class who later would become sans cullottes, and giving them a platform from which to speak on.

The financial crisis that France found itself in was not irreversible. The failure of its tax collection efforts was an issue, but not all winters would be like the one that caused that huge bread price increase.

Louis might be best off if he devolves power to the regional parlements, because when THEY fail, and they will fail, to bring about what the people want, Louis looks much better by comparison. He could even do this in the same way that the Sun King did, in which he would pit the nobility who were causing the issue with their tax avoidance against the middle class and use his power strategically to balance the situation. But this particular Louis was not a very smart man, so I doubt that this would occur.
 
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