Just an idea: Louis XVI has a hunting accident or something like that and dies sometime between the election of the Estates General of 1789 and their meeting on 5th May 1789 (let's say he dies in the last week of April that year). What could happen after that? Would the Estates General still be convened? Who would be the regent for Louis XVII? And how a regency would deal with the situation?
WI Louis XVI dies just before the Estates General are convened?
- Thread starter Gonzaga
- Start date
Monarchy probably survives.Louis VXII’s regents probably become scapegoats instead of the king himself in the event that things still go south.
I have to agree...MA will likely be sent into exile, to start. The Austrians may not be thrilled about this, but they're not going to move against the rightful king. The new Louis XVII is only 3 years old, he can certainly be molded into a true constitutional monarch if desired.
That said, I can see a constitutional monarchy being established in this situation. At this point, public feeling had not yet turned entirely against the monarchy. Louis XVI himself was even viewed more as an innocent victim of evil counsel (read: Marie Antoinette).
It depends on who the regent is. If it's the Queen things may proceed like OTL till the mob comes for her at Versailles. She would've ordered the Swiss Guard to open fire, to save themselves, or at least giving her the chance to escape with her children. A monarch at liberty would've had a better chance of rallying counter revolutionary forces. There was strong support for the monarchy in many parts of the country, but with the royal family under virtual arrest in Paris mobilizing it was much harder. The hapless Louis XVI never wanted his nation to face civil war, Marie was made of sterner stuff. The loyalty of the Army would have been critical. Most of the rank, and file may have hated the "Austrian", but loyalty to the Dauphin, was still strong. Civil war is always problematic, so who knows what would've happened.
