Well, I suppose Soissons is likewise conveniently close(r) to a border should things get out of hand. The mob can't hold the king hostage, and him being protected by loyal regiments might work. Just make sure those regiments are French (not Allemands or Suisse or whatever), because that was one of the things that was said about Louis OTL IIRC - namely that he intended to use the foreign regiments to massacre the Parisians/French IIRC
You are right about the existence of xenophobia among the revolutionaries, especially among Parisians who feared a brutal royal repression. The dissolution of the foreign regiments was a plea often repeated in the cahier de doléances in 1789, as they were seen as instruments of despotic oppression.
This xenophobia will slowly grow along the fear of repression. The arrival of French and foreign regiments around Paris created a debate on the subject during the Estate-General. The fact they didn’t immediately enter Paris waiting for reinforcements accentuated this fear as it was seen as a build-up before a massive repression. The emigration/flight of nobles and royal relatives abroad made it worse.
Unfortunately for the King, most of those regiments were as loyal as the french ones due to the fact that their recruitment weren’t 100% foreign based. As an example, members of the German regiments were often recruited in Alsace and the descendants of foreign soldiers could join the regiments of their fathers, even if they lived most of their lives in France.
The Swiss regiments were the only ones with a 100% foreign recruitment, but even the Swiss Gardes hesitated to shoot on the Parisians. Their three barracks were situated around Paris (Rueil-Malmaison, Courbevoie, Saint-Denis) and they became used to live among the Parisians and slowly sympathized with them.
In OTL, most of the foreign regiments and the Maison militaire du roi troops were nationalized in 1791. The Gardes Suisses and the Swiss regiments will only be dissolved after the Tuileries massacres in 1792. The Gardes Suisses didn’t hesitate to shoot during the Tuileries attacks and stayed loyal to the King, obeying even when they were asked to let down weapons, a gesture leading to their massacre.
In my opinion, only a quick enter into Paris by a mix of foreign and French regiments wouldn’t let enough time for this xenophobia to reinforce the uprising.
A quick disarmament of the Gardes Françaises and an action taken before the seizure of the weapons guarded in the Invalides should be enough to stop the military crisis in Paris.
IOTL :
Since the 26th of May. marching orders have been issued to six regiments. A troop of about 20,000 men was thus called to the outskirts of the capital to maintain order in Paris and Versailles. All those troops are ready on 22th of June.
Riots occurred in the beginning of July against the toll on goods entering Paris belonging to la Ferme Générale.
Those riots culminated after the firing of Necker in the 12th of July and the subsequent violent reaction by the Royal-Allemand near the Tuileries leading to the treason of the Gardes Françaises.
Paris municipality afraid of the violence and without any real help from outside was paralyzed. The "voters" of Paris met at the Hôtel de ville de Paris. They formed a "permanent committee" and decided to create a "bourgeois militia" of 48,000 men.
It led to the attacks on the Invalides and the Bastille.
ITTL :
The foreign and french troops already deployed near Soissons and between Soissons and Paris are called to march on Paris on the 22th of May. They reach Paris as early as the 1st of June (8 days of preparation), slowly joined by other regiments from the provinces.
After the death of the Dauphin Louis-Joseph on the 4th of June, the Estate-General is adjourned for a week and a national mourning period is declared until his burial on the 13th of June. During this week, in Soissons (and Versailles), agents are sent to quell any troubles and Estate-General deputies are closely monitored. This surprising action against deputies has been explained by historians by the effects of Louis XVI's profound sorrow that literally paralyzed most of his decisions. Fortunately for the monarchy, being away from Versailles, King Louis XVI had already assigned most of his daily duties to his council and to Monsieur le Comte de Provence.
A few deputies are temporarily put under house arrest and/or asked to quit Soissons including Sieyès, Mirabeau, Lafayette and surprisingly Louis-Philippe d’Orléans. Those who aren’t immediately jailed are forbidden to approach Versailles, Paris or Soissons and to publish any pamphlets or newspapers for a year at least. Unable to defeat the popularity of Lafayette and Louis-Philippe d’Orléans, the King’s council will appoint both of them as ambassadors after the Parisian agitation. Lafayette will be sent to United States in September 1879 to help Jean-Baptiste de Ternant, while Philippe d’Orléans will get the task to develop friendship between France and Russia as minister plenipotentiary in August 1789.
The King's council in Versailles carried out many important decisions to ensure the security of the kingdom and to eliminate the risks of sedition. Monsieur le Comte de Provence was the one who called for the armies to act against Paris. Numerically, the troops around Paris under the Marshall de Broglie were already more numerous than the six regiments called IOTL. The assembled troops could enter into Paris earlier, before the toll riots and even before the firing of Necker to reinforce the garnison and to restore order.
They enter into Paris around mid June. On the advice of De Besenval, the Gardes Françaises are rapidly disarmed, kept in barracks or sent outside of Paris. With the agreement of Marshal de Broglie, the Invalides weapons are evacuated outside of the city, while the Bastille is reinforced by fresh troops coming from the Swiss regiments. The Swiss regiments are temporarily transferred under De Besenval’s authority to restore order. This transfer won’t last for long. Skirmishes and fights occur between rioters and the Swiss mainly in the Faubourg Saint-Antoine, one of the poorest suburbs of Paris (next to the Bastille), and near the Tuileries.
Groups of soldiers get attacked nightly. Martial law and curfew are soon proclaimed in Paris and the Hôtel de Ville is heavily protected by troops. After the burning of a Ferme Générale toll barrier of La Porte Saint-Antoine, De Besenval is considered guilty of cowardice and revoked. Military control of Paris is given to Marshall de Broglie who decides to restore order by hook or by crook. He installs his headquarters at the Palais des Tuileries and at the Palais-Royal, evicting Phillippe d’Orléans supporters.
Leaders of the Parisian agitation are arrested and their political clubs are closed. Many of them are exiled outside of Paris. Those exiles are jailed far away from the capital and are going to be judged for treason, years later. Captured rioters and murderers of soldiers are put in jail. The second ones are silently hanged outside of Paris without trial.
In early July 1879, Marshall de Broglie reluctantly brings cannons inside Paris and will be forced to order the use of grapeshot once during an Orleanist-led riot on the 14th of July. Before and after this event, French regiments continued to enter into Paris, while the foreign ones were slowly put in reserve not to incite further riots. When Necker got temporarily dismissed on the 12th of July, Paris was already under control or at least ready for an urban uprising with numerous troops and cannons inside the city.
Attempts of urban uprisings still occur in other cities, around the 20th of July, but were severely crushed.
In 1790, Paris has 600.000 inhabitants.
- Lyon 150.000.
- Marseille 110.000.
- Bordeaux 110.000.
- Nantes 80.000.
- Toulouse 50.000.
Lyon :
In 1789, Lyon, along with Paris, was the only conurbation to have a population of more than 100,000. A city of banking, trade and manufacturing, it lives mainly on silk, which employs a third of the population. But France was then plunged into a very serious economic crisis, and this industry was in turmoil.
Two riots against the octroi barriers agitated the city, in June 1789 and July 1790. The people of the city hope that the Estates General of 1789 will abolish the toll rights, established by the merchant oligarchy to pay the rent on loans without taxing properties. However, the new municipality resulting from the elections maintained order until the arrival of royal troops in August 1789.
Marseille :
In March 1789, Marseille already revolted against town hall and the royal intendant. For two months the city sustained its uprising ; to administer its autonomy, it set up a new city council dominated by the guilds, and a citizen's militia. Its surrender to the king's soldiers in May was not total : the old tax system, unfavorable to the poorest, was never to be restored. The presence of king’s soldiers in the city in July 1789 prevented a new popular uprising.
Bordeaux :
The dazzling bourgeoisie of Bordeaux did not face a hostile proletariat. There were many workers: workers in shipbuilding, glassmaking, earthenware, distilleries, refineries, stringers, nail mills, cooperages. In 1789, there were 500 workers in refineries alone. But it was especially in the vast trading combinations that the Bordeaux people had found their fortune, and they had not had to subject the workers to particularly harsh exploitation.
The Jurade of Bordeaux was thus easily able to restore order in the city with the help of the wealthy merchants who didn’t hesitate to levy volunteers against the rioters. In several cases, captured revolutionaries had to be protected from the workers of the city.
Nantes :
The cahiers de doléances of Nantes expressed a desire for change, except with regard to black slavery and the privileges of Brittany. On July 19, 1789, a hundred of Breton patriots demanded the surrender of the Château des ducs de Bretagne, which the governor granted without a fight.
Late municipal elections are held in Nantes from 18 to 20 August. The new administration in Nantes was approved by a royal decree on 3 November. Thereafter, given the maintenance of the port's activity and good harvests, the question of supply does not give rise to any major tension.
Toulouse :
Concerned for their autonomy, the people of Toulouse always supported its Parliament when it was threatened by the monarchy. It is the Parliament of Toulouse that appoints the Capitouls, whose chapter is then reduced to 8 representatives. Only a few lootings and castle attacks occurred in 1789, the power of Parliament was respected.
Rennes :
On the evening of July 15, 1789, the revolutionary effervescence reached Rennes. In fear of a revenge of the nobility, helped by the army stationed in town, and after learning of the rumours of dismissal of Jacques Necker by Louis XVI, the young people of Rennes, most of whom were students, met at the Law School.
At the same time, the Artois regiment, commanded by Langeron, was ordered to prepare bullet cartridges for live fire, and its grenadiers were placed under lock-up. On the next morning of students harassed the soldiers in the barracks, inviting them to join them.
At 1 p.m., a half a thousand citizens came to break into the militia's weapons store, located opposite the Blossac hotel on Rue du Chapitre. The majority of the guarding soldiers refused to join the ranks of the revolutionaries and retreated in the courtyard of Blossac hotel to protect the Intendant of Brittany.
The municipality then negotiated with Langeron so that he would not call other soldiers in town and not punish the soldiers who had disobeyed. Langeron promises, but at the same time gathers his chasseurs and grenadiers in the courtyard of the Blossac hotel. He then ordered two of the four guns to be loaded with grapeshot and to point them towards the hotel's carriage gate...
Grenoble :
The Royal armies were forced to lay a two-month long siege around Grenoble, which refused to obey to the King and proclaimed a popular commune. The besieged city will be occupied for more than a year by royal troops after the siege.
Toulon :
King Louis XIV determined to make France a major sea power. In 1660, his Minister Jean-Baptiste Colbert ordered Sébastien Le Prestre de Vauban to build a new arsenal and to fortify the town. Toulon is with Brest, the only port capable of accommodating large warships in the 17th and 18th centuries.
In August 1789, sailors of one of the Toulon’s warship were on the verge of mutiny. The news of the massacres in Grenoble only fuelled hatred among these lowly men subjected to an iron discipline from noble officers. The Contre-amiral D’Albert de Rion, who commanded the fleet, was afraid of this mutiny. Fearing a bigger movement, he chose to directly negotiate on board of the mutinous ship.
Ready to ease the situation, he asked for the preparation of grapeshot volleys on two neighboring warships. During the negociation, he was slapped by one drunk sailor. Furious, the contre-amiral quickly quit the vessel before ordering his destruction. Surviving sailors were hanged at the gate of the Arsenal.
Avignon, Nîmes , Strasbourg
Jacqueries :
The jacqueries of OTL that happened following the Storming of the Bastille don’t occur ITTL. Peasants don’t have the example of the Bastille and do not dare to attack their lords.
EDIT : I am slowly adding stuff about the biggest cities ITTL.