WI Louis XIV wins the Franco-Dutch War?

Wikipedia said:
When a Dutch mission arrived suing for peace, Louis demanded only Delfzijl, by far the least important port Charles desired, for the English. Yet, when he was offered the southern fortresses of the Republic — the French possession of which would make the Spanish Netherlands indefensible[19] — and ten million guilders, he refused. Knowing that the mission was not allowed to make any concessions on the point of religion and the territorial integrity of the provinces themselves (the southern fortress cities of Breda, 's-Hertogenbosch and Maastricht were in the Generality Lands), Louis demanded – besides twenty million guilders and an annual embassy from the States General to Louis asking pardon for their perfidy – either religious freedom for the Catholics or lordship over Utrecht and Guelders, his sole motivation being to humiliate the Dutch a bit further.[20] But he did not continue his military advance, fearing to drive the Dutch into the hands of Charles. Louis waited while the mission returned to ask for new instructions, which would take some time given the decentralised nature of the Dutch administration; all the city councils would have to be consulted on the issue. Meanwhile the water gradually filled the polders of the defence line. On 7 July, the inundations were fully set and the province of Holland was safe from a further French advance.

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So let's say Louis XIV accepts the offer of the Dutch peace mission and takes the Generality Lands from the Republic and calls that a victory (which it would be since his lands would completely surround the Spanish Netherlands). What would the consequences be? He promised Holy Roman Emperor Leopold I that he would leave the Spanish Netherlands alone, but agreements can be broken of course. Personally, I could see Louis XIV do that in order to establish the Rhine as his border.

In the meantime, how would England's concomitant war against the Dutch go? I imagine that because France (and presumably the Bishopric of Münster and the Archbishopric of Cologne) has just signed a separate peace with the Dutch Republic, England would do the same. I don't see France's separate peace butterflying away De Ruyter's naval victories. Also, I suppose the anti-Catholic parliament would distrust Louis even more than IOTL for breaking their agreement and force Charles to abandon the costly, fruitless war like they did historically.

And where does that leave the Republic? They've lost lands, yes. But their naval and mercantile assets remain intact, although their position vis-à-vis France has seriously weakened. They're surrounded by France and its allies, so perhaps a foreign policy of Finlandization would follow, unless William III still manages to cobble together an anti-French alliances. That's assuming he holds onto the office of Stadtholder to begin with after such a defeat and loss of prestige. His anti-Orangist republican opponents could blame him for the Republic's defeat since it occured under his tenure and use that to assault his position.

Thoughts, ideas, suggestions?


Here is a map to visualize what France would be getting. The Generality lands are in purple and pink:

The_Low_Countries.png
 
I'd guess a coalition of Austria, Spain, minor German states like Bavaria and others, possibly England and maybe the Dutch (if the war goes badly enough for France so they can join without being overran and if William keeps his position and enough power). All of them together would try to stop France from getting anything more before they go all crazy on everyone and in fact might try to bring them back to 1659 borders if possible. England could join as the Parliament was, as you said, anti-Catholic and they could make gains. Everyone made peace with the Dutch and it would be smarter to do the same. England could gain more from a war against France especially in the colonies and use this as an opportunity to come out of the war as the prime naval and trade power, depending on how beat up the Dutch are.
 
If Louis XIV keeps rampageing through his half-century, I think the Spanish/Austrians are bound to lose their lands in Belgium. On the long term, possibly a Rhine Frontier.
Coalitions are more likely to pop up, though.
 
I'd guess a coalition of Austria, Spain, minor German states like Bavaria and others, possibly England and maybe the Dutch (if the war goes badly enough for France so they can join without being overran and if William keeps his position and enough power). All of them together would try to stop France from getting anything more before they go all crazy on everyone and in fact might try to bring them back to 1659 borders if possible. England could join as the Parliament was, as you said, anti-Catholic and they could make gains. Everyone made peace with the Dutch and it would be smarter to do the same. England could gain more from a war against France especially in the colonies and use this as an opportunity to come out of the war as the prime naval and trade power, depending on how beat up the Dutch are.

That occured to me too. That leads me to ponder who France could ally with to break its international isolation. I'm aware Louis XIV had an alliance to the Ottomans, but I'm not sure how much good it did him IOTL or how much good it'd do him ITTL.
 
Anybody have any ideas on the War of the Spanish Succession btw? I imagine the campaigns in the Low Countries and the Rhine would have been seriously different, with or without the Dutch. For one, the Spanish Netherlands would have fallen quickly to the French. Assuming a neutral Holland, France could have directed even more attention to southern Germany, enough to win the Battle of Blenheim and keep the Bavarians in the fight, which would have pressured the Habsburgs (more so, given that there'd still be a Hungarian uprising). They could even have threatened Vienna with some luck and perhaps force the Habsburgs out of the fight.
 
I asked the very same question a month ago, great to see that I'm not the only one wondering about this. :)


WI: Louis doesn't get greedy in the Franco-Dutch war?
http://forums.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=354324


Only one source for this wikipedia entry though, I would still like to know if the offer war really made to Louis, because I cannot understand how he would in his right mind refuse this. :(

One word: hubris. For a while in 1672 it looked like he couldn't lose. Equally great men have fallen due to hubris before and since. But a simple PoD like falling ill (too ill to continue leading his armies) would do the trick.
 
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