WI: Louis XIV tied to intercept William of Orange (1688)

William of Orange set sail from Holland in 1688 with 49 warships and a few hundred transport vessels, to depose King James of England. He was successful in his mission and James was driven from the country in what is known as the Glourious Revolution. My question is what if French King Louis XIV found out about the proposed invasion and decided to intercept William, in order to save his ally James? The French White Squadron which would probably be tasked with the mission numbered around 30 warships.

Your thoughts?
 
It probably ends with lots of dead French sailors.

The Dutch fleet at the time was rather superior to the French one.
 
Any intercept could be significant. James/Louis don't need to win a naval battle, just to get in among those transports. They are very vulnerable.


The wind's the thing. A protestant wind favouring the Dutch is not so good for a French fleet. Still , William had to run as far down as Torbay, so an intercept in the Channel might be possible. Where was the French fleet based?
 
Any intercept could be significant. James/Louis don't need to win a naval battle, just to get in among those transports. They are very vulnerable.


The wind's the thing. A protestant wind favouring the Dutch is not so good for a French fleet. Still , William had to run as far down as Torbay, so an intercept in the Channel might be possible. Where was the French fleet based?

I'm not sure. Dunkirk maybe?
 
I'm not sure. Dunkirk maybe?

Some privateers operated out of Dunkirk, but it wasn't a major fleet base: too far off the internal transport network in France (such as it was at the time). The main Atlantic/Channel fleet was based out of Brest, opposite the English navy at Plymouth and having ready access to both the Channel and the Atlantic.
 
Some privateers operated out of Dunkirk, but it wasn't a major fleet base: too far off the internal transport network in France (such as it was at the time). The main Atlantic/Channel fleet was based out of Brest, opposite the English navy at Plymouth and having ready access to both the Channel and the Atlantic.

Wasn't there a fleet base somewhere in Normandy?

agreed, the French were not that bad they managed to win at Beachy Head two yrs later.

Battle of Beachy Head (1690) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Exactly. Plus, its like Jedidiah said: You don't have to sink the warships just the transports. Whether or not William of Orange survives or not is gonna be a question. But either way the elite dutch forces will be mainly lost and I doubt States-General will want to support another invasion when the first one failed spectacularly. Depending on how many troops are lost, we could see a different outcome of the nine years' war.
 
Brest would be a difficult intercept in that wind. Cherbourg , much easier.

Bear in mind that Lord Dartmouth with the English fleet was in (theoretically) hot pursuit of the Dutch, but lost so much time stuck in the Downs ; waiting for more ships; and complaining about the difficulties of the Galloper and the Kentish Knock (as if they hadn't been there for every English fleet that ever sailed) that he never came up with the Dutch .Dartmouth was never more than competent, unfortunately for James , the great Admirals of the Restoration era were either dead (Sandwich, Rupert) or unable to command (James himself).

Still, if a French squadron had managed to delay the Dutch by even a day, either by battle or by forcing the Dutch to manoeuvre round them, that would have given time for Dartmouth to engage. A combined Dutch and English fleet would certainly have been able to see off the Dutch.
 
Well if William III doesn't survive there is a possibility that the Principality of Orange passes to Frederick William I of Prussia, him being the heir-general. The threat of a Anglo-French alliance means that the Dutch Republic needs friends in order to avoid another 1672, and this would be a pretty obvious one. One could imagine Frederick William being made Stadtholder in exchange for defending the Republic.

In certain ways the Dutch Republic might in the long term be better off. The constant wars with France after the Glorious Revolution put a heavy burden on the Dutch state. In addition many Dutch traders and bankers moved to London. All this meant that at the beginning of the 18th century, England was becoming the dominant trade power in the world. In this case things might be different.
 
I'd suggest that William NOT surviving should be a very unlikely outcome of a successful Anglo-French (or either one alone) intercept.

In the situation given, an Admirals first duty will be to take out the transports. He will (should !) use his battle fleet to shield smaller ships (frigates, 5th and 6th classes and fireships) that can wreak havoc amongst the unarmed transports. So, get the battlefleet into the midst of the enemy mass, and try to insert it between the enemy battle fleet and the transports.

William will certainly be on the Dutch flag ship, surrounded by the biggest war ships. The Anglo-French admiral has no business being anywhere near them. This isn't an action to sink the enemy battlefleet, or capture enemy warships ,let alone to pursue 'gloire'. The admirals duty is to sink , burn or disable (any will do it) those transports. Engage ,rake , and move on. a disabled transport is unlikely to be a threat. Don't waste time capturing them, just savage them, and move on to the next. Getting involved in battleship duels is just a distraction from that purpose. Of course, the opposing admiral will be doing his best to lure the Anglo-French into warship duels, and draw them away from the transports.

Problem is, nine out ten admirals will forget , in the heat of battle, why they are there , and go whoring off after glory and ship-of-the-line combats.
 
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