WI: Louis XIV died before the War of the Spanish Succession: can it be prevented?

[PauL62]

In 1700, Carlos II of Spain died, bequeathing all of his territorial heritage to Philippe d'Anjou, grandson of Louis XIV. The Sun King brings together several people around him on the approach to follow: they unanimously agreed to accept the will of Carlos II. However, this aroused the displeasure of the Austrians, but in addition, Louis XIV also aroused the ire of the maritime powers by preserving Pilippus his rights to the crown of France and by recognizing James III as king of England. War therefore broke out.
What if the Sun King had died for example in 1698 or 1699? Could his successor, the Dauphin, alias Louis XV ITTL, have better managed this embarrassment of the Spanish heritage by making territorial concessions to the Austrians (Milanese, Italy, Netherlands) and by avoiding provoking the maritime powers? Or would he have done like his father? At least, if he leans for the first option, France would not be ruined in the years 1700-1710. Even, France would keep some cities in the Netherlands (Veurne, Ieper, Menen, Tournai) that it lost IOTL to the treaty of Utrecht and would keep Acadia and Newfoundland. And Spain would keep the Rock of Gibraltar.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

I've felt that Louis XIV dying sooner than he did would have in the long run been better for France; he had a tendency to bite off more than he could chew. A more diplomatic man (not that Louis XV or his father's ministry would have filled this) probably could have secured French interests better.

I would think that France could at the most gain either the Low Countries or Sicily, buying off the Austrians with Milan and Naples, maybe Parma. This would undoubtedly mean aggravating with Britain and the Dutch but if Austria agreed I can't see them being overly miffed- maybe a swap of Bavaria for Belgium, Milan to Austria, the Bourbons get Spain+the Two Sicilies?

 

[PauL62]

I've felt that Louis XIV dying sooner than he did would have in the long run been better for France; he had a tendency to bite off more than he could chew. A more diplomatic man (not that Louis XV or his father's ministry would have filled this) probably could have secured French interests better.

I would think that France could at the most gain either the Low Countries or Sicily, buying off the Austrians with Milan and Naples, maybe Parma. This would undoubtedly mean aggravating with Britain and the Dutch but if Austria agreed I can't see them being overly miffed- maybe a swap of Bavaria for Belgium, Milan to Austria, the Bourbons get Spain+the Two Sicilies?

In the link I showed you in another thread (which was in French), they suggested Vauban as Prime Minister. If he really had been, I think he would have led France to more restraint and he would have avoided famine in 1700-1710 thanks to a plan which he had already thought of at the time if I remember good. After, surely Vauban would have influenced Louis XV ITTL for all this: less absolutism, more attention to the interest of France, at the economic level. But in addition, he would have negotiated with the other powers Savoy, Lorraine and perhaps Nice.

But it is that in spite of a good beginning and middle of reign, in the end it became calamitous for Louis XIV: loss of colonies, of cities considered impregnable in the north, the budgets of the 2 following years which were already spent, over-indebtedness... If he had died in 1698-99, this might have been avoided, the history of America would no doubt have been changed with many butterflies (or not), and the French Revolution (and especially the Terror) could be avoided.

 

[The Undead Martyr]

I'm not sure that Louis could have gained Nice or Savoy through diplomacy alone, let alone both. At the very least as OTL he would have to promise the Savoy Milan, which undoubtedly means war with Austria.

 

[Remicas]

Vauban also had in mind a tax reform, la dîme royale. Basically, replace a lot of taxes with a p unique income tax that would also be paid by the nobility and the clergy. He would have made a fine replacement for Colbert.

Another blunder from the Sun King was the 1685 Edict of Fontainebleau, revoking the Edict of Nantes granting Protestants the right to practice their religion. However, a lot of Huguenots were skilled craftmen, and when they fled France it was an equivalent of a brain drain. Though it's too late with the proposed POD.