Well, He probably wouldn't have the reckless, Alexandrian urge for power as Louis XIV. In the short-term, France is unlikely to rise to total dominance (as in otl) and would likely equal Spain in terms of power. The way I see it, without ASB, we'd have one of three scenarios:
A.) Gaston is eclipsed by one of his cabinet members, probably a Catholic Cardinal, and fade into obscurity.
B.) Our Frankish friend (the King...I'm trying to be entertaining

) would submit to the will of the Vatican in the cause of suppourting the HRE and Counter-reformation(results in an alliance between Spain, France, and Austria).
C.) He chooses to disregard the Pope, and gets whacked by the Vatican Secret Service, just like a couple of his predecessors.
I won't even begin working on the possible future butterflies
