WI Louis XIII dies childless?

The birth of Louis XIV was a surprise in the French court. The king Louis XIII and Anne of Austria were married for 23 years at the time, and the queen couldn't have a surviving children until then. So, WI Anne had kept the same earlier bad luck, and remains unable to give birth a heir to Louis XIII? Assuming he still dies in 1643, how would Gaston, Duke of Orleans fare as king of France?
 
Well, He probably wouldn't have the reckless, Alexandrian urge for power as Louis XIV. In the short-term, France is unlikely to rise to total dominance (as in otl) and would likely equal Spain in terms of power. The way I see it, without ASB, we'd have one of three scenarios:

A.) Gaston is eclipsed by one of his cabinet members, probably a Catholic Cardinal, and fade into obscurity.
B.) Our Frankish friend (the King...I'm trying to be entertaining ;)) would submit to the will of the Vatican in the cause of suppourting the HRE and Counter-reformation(results in an alliance between Spain, France, and Austria).
C.) He chooses to disregard the Pope, and gets whacked by the Vatican Secret Service, just like a couple of his predecessors.

I won't even begin working on the possible future butterflies :D
 
A.) Gaston is eclipsed by one of his cabinet members, probably a Catholic Cardinal, and fade into obscurity.

I'm not so sure about that. Gaston hated Richelieu, and he would see Cardinal Mazarin as his enemy's "creation". I can even imagine him trying to send Mazarin back to Italy and enforce royal power in order to show that a real king doesn't need a Cardinal to tell him how to rule.

B.) Our Frankish friend (the King...I'm trying to be entertaining ;)) would submit to the will of the Vatican in the cause of suppourting the HRE and Counter-reformation(results in an alliance between Spain, France, and Austria).

Maybe not allying, but a separate peace with Spain is possible. In 1643 there was a plot made by important nobles to kill Mazarin and make peace with Madrid, so it's not so unlikely that such agreement could be reached.
 
Or if Gaston becomes too much pain in the ass for the Pope he ends up excommunicated and his catholic subjects revolt or try to assassinate him...
 
if i remember right, Gaston, Duke of Orleans has no sons in OTL, guessing that doesn't change, when Gaston kicks it in 1660ish, our hair is, there for, the prince de Condé, Louis II de Bourbon, Prince de Condé

Hmm, that's right! And interesting enough, by 1660 Louis of Condé needed to ask forgiveness of Louis XIV for having fought against French forces during the Franco-Spanish War. But, if Gaston becomes king in 1643, and Mazarin is dismissed, then we probably would have no Fronde and no war with Spain, or a different one, changing completely Louis military experience.
 
if i remember right, Gaston, Duke of Orleans has no sons in OTL, guessing that doesn't change, when Gaston kicks it in 1660ish, our hair is, there for, the prince de Condé, Louis II de Bourbon, Prince de Condé

Well since most of his surviving daughters are born after the time he would become King...

It need not be that he be survived only by daughters, anyone of them may have been a boy instead and the son that died may have lived...

Given his greater responsibilities as King he may definitely continue efforts to bequeath a son and heir to the Kingdom. The eldest daughter, Anne Marie Louise, will suddenly be quite a match but with no illusions that she herself may become queen and will likely marry at an early age. perhaps even Charles II as sometimes envisioned or proposed.
 
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Given his greater responsibilities as King he may definitely continue efforts to bequeath a son and heir to the Kingdom. The eldest daughter, Anne Marie Louise, will suddenly be quite a match but with no illusions that she herself may become queen and will likely marry at an early age. perhaps even Charles II as sometimes envisioned or proposed.

That would be interesting. If Charles II still becomes king of England ITTL and marries Anne Marie instead of Catherine of Braganza then we would probably have issue and James II wouldn't be his heir. Maybe the Stuarts could hold the English/Scotish throne for longer.
 
That would be interesting. If Charles II still becomes king of England ITTL and marries Anne Marie instead of Catherine of Braganza then we would probably have issue and James II wouldn't be his heir. Maybe the Stuarts could hold the English/Scotish throne for longer.

Untill they are kicked out for suspicious Catholicism...
 
Well since most of his surviving daughters are born after the time he would become King...

It need not be that he be survived only by daughters, anyone of them may have been a boy instead and the son that died may have lived...

while of the 9 children Duke of Orléans had, 2 were boys, 7 were girls (and one of the boys was illegitimate) so the gene pool seems against him
 
while of the 9 children Duke of Orléans had, 2 were boys, 7 were girls (and one of the boys was illegitimate) so the gene pool seems against him

granted he would appear to be predisposed to females, but the fact remains he did father some sons so it is not out of the realm of possibility a boy born first or second to Marguerite instead of later when she is nearing or in her forties would have as good a chance as the daughters of surviving.
 
granted he would appear to be predisposed to females, but the fact remains he did father some sons so it is not out of the realm of possibility a boy born first or second to Marguerite instead of later when she is nearing or in her forties would have as good a chance as the daughters of surviving.

I think it's more fun with another succession crisis, after Gaston kicks it, all so King Louis XIV must be :cool:
 
I think it's more fun with another succession crisis, after Gaston kicks it, all so King Louis XIV must be :cool:

It may be more fun for you yes...but improbable, given that Gaston acceding to the throne is your Pod, he is most directly affected and therefore so are his issue past the Pod.


Besides there are issues that could be explored with Anne Marie Louise perhaps marrying Charles II while in French exile. He will as stated most definitely have issue while there well before his restoration. He did have Scots support afterall and a French bride will bring him French as well. though I doubt he is likely to turn the clock back fully. the most he islikely to attempt is a measure of tolerance. He is unlikely to convert himself, at least not immediately as it would hinder his chances at restoration. He will make the concessions he has to to gain support first, restoration 2nd, and then he can think about possibly returning the favour to the French if they support him more fully.


Gaston, not being a minor means no Mazurin, no Fronde perhaps and an entirely different policy for France perhaps as stated earlier. So rather than jumping straight to the succession down the road perhaps determining the course of events in France that were characterized by theFronde OTL and probable French policy during the Swedish phase of the 30 yrs war are of more immediate interests
 
Gaston, not being a minor means no Mazurin, no Fronde perhaps and an entirely different policy for France perhaps as stated earlier. So rather than jumping straight to the succession down the road perhaps determining the course of events in France that were characterized by theFronde OTL and probable French policy during the Swedish phase of the 30 yrs war are of more immediate interests

That's something I was wondering about. If Gaston's ascension to the throne in 1643 causes the dismissal of Mazarin and a separate peace with Spain (and probably with the Emperor too) how would it affect the 30 Years War? Weren't the Habsburgs already in a difficult position in 1643? What could Gaston ask in exchange for peace? And would the French retreat give strenght enough to the Catholics to push the war for longer, or could it mean an earlier agreement?
 
That's something I was wondering about. If Gaston's ascension to the throne in 1643 causes the dismissal of Mazarin and a separate peace with Spain (and probably with the Emperor too) how would it affect the 30 Years War? Weren't the Habsburgs already in a difficult position in 1643? What could Gaston ask in exchange for peace? And would the French retreat give strenght enough to the Catholics to push the war for longer, or could it mean an earlier agreement?

The dismissal of Mazarin may cause a slight side effect... In OTL Cardinal Mazarin arrived too late in the 1644 Conclave to present the French veto against Cardinal Pamphili who already had been elected and took the name Innocens X... Now if Mazarin is dismissed but still in French service he could have vetoed Pamphili in time and could promote a pro-French Cardinal to the Papacy... Maybe Cardinal DuPlessis de Richelieu or Alessandro Cardinal Bichi or Girolamo Cardinal Panciroli...
Without a pro-French Pope France could conclude a peace with Habsurgs with little or no gain... But with the Pope allied to them they could gained something valuable from Spain and HRE...
 
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