WI: Louis XII of France dies without children

What might have happened if Louis XII's daughters were to have died before him? Claude of France was a rather delicate girl and could have succumbed to her own ill health at some point before her marriage to Francois d'Angouleme. Renee of France herself while stronger than her sister could have died in her infancy of a childhood illness.

If Louis XII were to die without heirs as OTL there'd be no one to inherit the French throne from the main branch of the family. And without his daughters he can't ease the way for Francois d'Angouleme's ascension to the French throne through marriage to his eldest.

Just how much of a quandary would the French have been in at this time?
 
This situation probably wouldn't have caused that much trouble in regards for the succession to the French throne. France followed Salic Law, so Louis XII would still be succeeded by Francis I in this scenario. Francis' marriage to Claude of France had nothing to do with "easing the succession", even if Louis XII had a pretty bad opinion of his nephew. But he just couldn't do anything to prevent Francis I from succeeding him aside from fathering a son (which is what he failed to do OTL).

The issue could come from Britanny though. Britanny got attached to France thanks to Anne of Britanny's marriages to the French Kings: first Charles VIII and then Louis XII. Anne was still Duchess of Britanny in her own right so when she died OTL, the duchy went to her eldest daughter, Claude. Which is the main reason why Claude was eventually wedded to Francis I: because it made sure the next Duke of Britanny was the King of France. As a matter of fact, the Dauphin Francis (Francis I and Claude's eldest son) was sometimes referred as Duke Francis III of Britanny between the death of his mother in 1524 and his own death in 1536. Same thing with Henri II: he was both titled Dauphin of France and Duke of Britanny before he became King of France in 1547.

If Louis XII and Anne of Britanny have absolutely no children though, then Britanny can technically remain independant since the King of France isn't the next Duke of Britanny. The situation is complex however, as there isn't a clear successor to Anne in 1514. The following candidate I found are as follow:
  • François II d'Avaugour (1493-1517) - The son of François Ier d'Avaugour, himself the illegitimate son of Duke Francis II of Britanny. He is the closest kin to Anne, being her nephew. However, he is the son of a bastard, and thus that technically excludes him from the throne. It wouldn't be the first time in history that a bastard might be considered worthy of accessing a title though.
  • Philibert de Chalon (1502-1530) - Son of Jean IV of Chalon-Arlay, Prince of Orange. Jean IV himself was the son of Guillaume VII and Catherine of Britanny, sister to Duke Francis II and thus Anne's aunt. He is probably the most legitimate candidate for the Duchy. There are several issues surrounding him though: he is only 12 in 1514 and his father was known as an opponent of France, so that probably won't go well if he is chosen.
  • Jacques de Rohan (1478-1527) - son of Jean II, Viscount of Rohan, and Marie of Britanny, herself daughter of Francis I of Britanny as well as the cousin and stepsister to Duke Francis II (her eldest sister Marguerite was Francis II's wife). He belongs to a pretty old and strong Breton family and he has a pretty good lineage to back his claim. His family also happens to have supported France, but his father also tried to claim the Duchy at one point only for Charles VIII to remind him he couldn't do what he wanted.
  • Guy XVI de Laval (1476-1531) - son of Jean de Laval, himself son of Guy XV de Laval and Isabelle of Britanny, herself daughter of Duke Jean V of Britanny. He is basically in the same situation as Jacques de Rohan, but he is less well-placed in the succession line. That being said, he apparently played a pretty big role OTL and seems relatively important: he might just have enough political wait to pull it off...
  • Charles IV d'Alençon (1489-1525) - He belongs to the House of Valois and is a very distant cousin to Louis XII and Francis I, as his ancestor was the brother of King Philippe VI. He also happens to have connections to the House of Britanny, his great grandfather Jean I d'Alençon having wed Marie of Britanny, daughter of Duke Jean IV. He also happens to be Francis I's stepbrother, as he had married the latter's elder sister, Marguerite of Angoulême (later known as Marguerite of Navarra), in 1509. He is probably the claimant with the least back-up but he is a Valois, a Prince du Sang (He might even be Premier Prince du Sang at the time) and the future King of France's stepbrother...
The last two are probably the ones with the least chance to take the Duchy from my POV, but I don't know enough about Britanny's history to know who would be chosen. If I had to guess, I'd go with Jacques de Rohan because he seems to be in the better position and that would probably satisfy everyone: the Bretons get a Duke from their own ranks and the French have a relatively solid ally. Still, you're going to get a very interesting situation in Britanny in this scenario...
 
I wonder if they wouldn't promote a prince of Savoy - son of Claudine de Brosse - as duke? The treaty that had ensured the Montfort succession to the house of Dreux during the time of Jeanne la Boiteuse and Charles de Blois reserved the right to the house of Blois to succeed to the duchy of Brittany should the Montfort male line fail (which here it has). Claudine died in 1513, by then it's apparent that Anna is not going to produce any more children (IIRC, her last pregnancy was in 1512). Claudine's eldest son has already succeeded as duke of Savoy (though the POD is flexible and Filiberto II could've survived, I guess), in which case her second son, the OTL duc de Nemours would be tipped as the logical successor in Brittany. Not only that, the duc de Nemours is the uncle of the future François I, by being younger half-brother to the Dowager Comtesse d'Angouleme.

Obviously, England and friends might not be overly fond of the idea, but it's not as though they have a whole range of non-French options. In fact, they might prefer Savoy to Alençon or Châlon. Spain might prefer Laval, due to the fact that he is married to a Neapolitan infanta, in spite of her being domiciled in France since the late '80s (when it was rumored that when Charles VIII rejected Margarethe of Austria, he would marry Charlotte of Naples instead - and then François II died and it all went to custard.
 
  • François II d'Avaugour (1493-1517) - The son of François Ier d'Avaugour, himself the illegitimate son of Duke Francis II of Britanny. He is the closest kin to Anne, being her nephew. However, he is the son of a bastard, and thus that technically excludes him from the throne. It wouldn't be the first time in history that a bastard might be considered worthy of accessing a title though.
  • Philibert de Chalon (1502-1530) - Son of Jean IV of Chalon-Arlay, Prince of Orange. Jean IV himself was the son of Guillaume VII and Catherine of Britanny, sister to Duke Francis II and thus Anne's aunt. He is probably the most legitimate candidate for the Duchy. There are several issues surrounding him though: he is only 12 in 1514 and his father was known as an opponent of France, so that probably won't go well if he is chosen.
  • Jacques de Rohan (1478-1527) - son of Jean II, Viscount of Rohan, and Marie of Britanny, herself daughter of Francis I of Britanny as well as the cousin and stepsister to Duke Francis II (her eldest sister Marguerite was Francis II's wife). He belongs to a pretty old and strong Breton family and he has a pretty good lineage to back his claim. His family also happens to have supported France, but his father also tried to claim the Duchy at one point only for Charles VIII to remind him he couldn't do what he wanted.
  • Guy XVI de Laval (1476-1531) - son of Jean de Laval, himself son of Guy XV de Laval and Isabelle of Britanny, herself daughter of Duke Jean V of Britanny. He is basically in the same situation as Jacques de Rohan, but he is less well-placed in the succession line. That being said, he apparently played a pretty big role OTL and seems relatively important: he might just have enough political wait to pull it off...
  • Charles IV d'Alençon (1489-1525) - He belongs to the House of Valois and is a very distant cousin to Louis XII and Francis I, as his ancestor was the brother of King Philippe VI. He also happens to have connections to the House of Britanny, his great grandfather Jean I d'Alençon having wed Marie of Britanny, daughter of Duke Jean IV. He also happens to be Francis I's stepbrother, as he had married the latter's elder sister, Marguerite of Angoulême (later known as Marguerite of Navarra), in 1509. He is probably the claimant with the least back-up but he is a Valois, a Prince du Sang (He might even be Premier Prince du Sang at the time) and the future King of France's stepbrother...

I can see Chalon inheriting the Duchy. Laval (and perhaps Spain due to Laval's ties to Aragon through marriage) would probably throw his support behind the boy if Jean IV de Chalon-Arlay were to agree to betroth his son to Laval's daughter, Anne de Laval b. 1505.

Chalon has, as you said, the most legitimate claim. Laval also has some very big political clout in Brittany as well as in France due to his long service to the Kings of France. It's likely that this would be the best way for de Chalon to get his son on the ducal throne of Brittany as well as to avoid tension with France.

Rohan's past might exclude him from inheriting the duchy. At the very least there might not be as much support for him as there might be for Chalon, especially if Laval throws his support behind the boy.

I wonder if they wouldn't promote a prince of Savoy - son of Claudine de Brosse - as duke? The treaty that had ensured the Montfort succession to the house of Dreux during the time of Jeanne la Boiteuse and Charles de Blois reserved the right to the house of Blois to succeed to the duchy of Brittany should the Montfort male line fail (which here it has). Claudine died in 1513, by then it's apparent that Anna is not going to produce any more children (IIRC, her last pregnancy was in 1512). Claudine's eldest son has already succeeded as duke of Savoy (though the POD is flexible and Filiberto II could've survived, I guess), in which case her second son, the OTL duc de Nemours would be tipped as the logical successor in Brittany. Not only that, the duc de Nemours is the uncle of the future François I, by being younger half-brother to the Dowager Comtesse d'Angouleme.

Obviously, England and friends might not be overly fond of the idea, but it's not as though they have a whole range of non-French options. In fact, they might prefer Savoy to Alençon or Châlon. Spain might prefer Laval, due to the fact that he is married to a Neapolitan infanta, in spite of her being domiciled in France since the late '80s (when it was rumored that when Charles VIII rejected Margarethe of Austria, he would marry Charlotte of Naples instead - and then François II died and it all went to custard.

I can see this happening. Honestly, the succession of Brittany will be a mess due to the many claimants involved. Especially considering the treaty you mentioned. If the duc de Nemours were the one to succeed to the throne of Brittany there might be a chance of the man marrying Mary Tudor, who's only six years younger than him.

Is it possible that Mary Tudor could marry Francis I here instead of or even after Louis XII?
 
This situation probably wouldn't have caused that much trouble in regards for the succession to the French throne. France followed Salic Law, so Louis XII would still be succeeded by Francis I in this scenario. Francis' marriage to Claude of France had nothing to do with "easing the succession", even if Louis XII had a pretty bad opinion of his nephew. But he just couldn't do anything to prevent Francis I from succeeding him aside from fathering a son (which is what he failed to do OTL).

The issue could come from Britanny though. Britanny got attached to France thanks to Anne of Britanny's marriages to the French Kings: first Charles VIII and then Louis XII. Anne was still Duchess of Britanny in her own right so when she died OTL, the duchy went to her eldest daughter, Claude. Which is the main reason why Claude was eventually wedded to Francis I: because it made sure the next Duke of Britanny was the King of France. As a matter of fact, the Dauphin Francis (Francis I and Claude's eldest son) was sometimes referred as Duke Francis III of Britanny between the death of his mother in 1524 and his own death in 1536. Same thing with Henri II: he was both titled Dauphin of France and Duke of Britanny before he became King of France in 1547.

If Louis XII and Anne of Britanny have absolutely no children though, then Britanny can technically remain independant since the King of France isn't the next Duke of Britanny. The situation is complex however, as there isn't a clear successor to Anne in 1514. The following candidate I found are as follow:
  • François II d'Avaugour (1493-1517) - The son of François Ier d'Avaugour, himself the illegitimate son of Duke Francis II of Britanny. He is the closest kin to Anne, being her nephew. However, he is the son of a bastard, and thus that technically excludes him from the throne. It wouldn't be the first time in history that a bastard might be considered worthy of accessing a title though.
  • Philibert de Chalon (1502-1530) - Son of Jean IV of Chalon-Arlay, Prince of Orange. Jean IV himself was the son of Guillaume VII and Catherine of Britanny, sister to Duke Francis II and thus Anne's aunt. He is probably the most legitimate candidate for the Duchy. There are several issues surrounding him though: he is only 12 in 1514 and his father was known as an opponent of France, so that probably won't go well if he is chosen.
  • Jacques de Rohan (1478-1527) - son of Jean II, Viscount of Rohan, and Marie of Britanny, herself daughter of Francis I of Britanny as well as the cousin and stepsister to Duke Francis II (her eldest sister Marguerite was Francis II's wife). He belongs to a pretty old and strong Breton family and he has a pretty good lineage to back his claim. His family also happens to have supported France, but his father also tried to claim the Duchy at one point only for Charles VIII to remind him he couldn't do what he wanted.
  • Guy XVI de Laval (1476-1531) - son of Jean de Laval, himself son of Guy XV de Laval and Isabelle of Britanny, herself daughter of Duke Jean V of Britanny. He is basically in the same situation as Jacques de Rohan, but he is less well-placed in the succession line. That being said, he apparently played a pretty big role OTL and seems relatively important: he might just have enough political wait to pull it off...
  • Charles IV d'Alençon (1489-1525) - He belongs to the House of Valois and is a very distant cousin to Louis XII and Francis I, as his ancestor was the brother of King Philippe VI. He also happens to have connections to the House of Britanny, his great grandfather Jean I d'Alençon having wed Marie of Britanny, daughter of Duke Jean IV. He also happens to be Francis I's stepbrother, as he had married the latter's elder sister, Marguerite of Angoulême (later known as Marguerite of Navarra), in 1509. He is probably the claimant with the least back-up but he is a Valois, a Prince du Sang (He might even be Premier Prince du Sang at the time) and the future King of France's stepbrother...
The last two are probably the ones with the least chance to take the Duchy from my POV, but I don't know enough about Britanny's history to know who would be chosen. If I had to guess, I'd go with Jacques de Rohan because he seems to be in the better position and that would probably satisfy everyone: the Bretons get a Duke from their own ranks and the French have a relatively solid ally. Still, you're going to get a very interesting situation in Britanny in this scenario...
IIRC though the succession was supposed to be first to the male line of Montfort then to the male line of Penthièvre. With the Montforts extinct (since bastards do not count) the duchy should go to the Penthièvre family, whose rights were purchased by Louis XI. So there is a sensible argument for Brittany to remain part of the Royal Demesne anyway.
 
Is it possible that Mary Tudor could marry Francis I here instead of or even after Louis XII?
It does seem like a possibility. But it will depend a lot on what Henry VIII thinks of marrying his sister to Francis I.
IIRC though the succession was supposed to be first to the male line of Montfort then to the male line of Penthièvre. With the Montforts extinct (since bastards do not count) the duchy should go to the Penthièvre family, whose rights were purchased by Louis XI. So there is a sensible argument for Brittany to remain part of the Royal Demesne anyway.
Britanny wasn't part of the royal desmesne by the time Anne died: it was still a de-jure independant duchy whose duchess happened to be Queen of France. That being said, an argument can be made that the crown would seize Britanny by using that.

Thing is though that we're still dealing with a Britanny that originally wanted to remain independant from France. I don't know how far French influence had gotten in Britanny by the time Anne died in 1514. The Breton parliament asked to join with France in 1532: it's only 18 years after Anne died so you could argue French influence had already gotten pretty strong. But from what I understood, it actually required careful handling by french authorities to have the Breton agree to join with France. Plus, at the time Britanny asked to join, it still had its own Duke in the form of the Dauphin of France.

If Anne has no children, there is no guarantee the annexation of Britanny would go as smoothly as it did OTL. In fact, a Breton rebellion doesn't seem unlikely. It will really depend a lot on how the cards are played.
 
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