WI: Louis XI and Charles the Bold Switch Personalities?

Exactly as it says on the tin. Louis XI and Charles the Bold were contemporaries as the King of France and Duke of Burgundy respectively in the 15th century, but their personalities and legacies could not be further apart. Louis was cautious and cunning, preferring plots to direct confrontation; for this he was known as "the Spider". On the other hand, and as his epithet pretty obviously shows, Charles was proud, vainglorious, and relished any chance of taking the fight to his many enemies head-on. The different results on their realms were stark: France continued to centralize and saw off its many enemies both within and without its borders, whilst Burgundy got divvied up between the Valois and the Habsburgs.

But what if these two men switched personalities? For Spider Charles this would require a pretty blatant personality transplant, but Louis was fairly reckless in his youth, rebelling against his father, Charles VII (and fleeing to exile in Burgundy for his troubles ironically enough), so its not wholly implausible. Butterflies will start flapping once the War of the Public Weal rolls around - Spider Charles should be able to control and wage the conflict much more skillfully than his historical counterpart, with a corresponding decrease in effectiveness on the part of Louis the Bold. Which would result in a severe curtailing of the French monarchy's power vis-à-vis its overmighty dukes and counts starting from the late 1460s onwards. Perhaps Charles, Duke of Berry, Louis XI's brother and rival, would survive long enough to spark further civil strife down the line? At the very least, Charles the Spider should be more than tactful enough to be crowned as King of Burgundy in 1473, if not earlier, since he will not scare off Emperor Frederick III with his naked ambition.

Meanwhile, Louis the Bold would surely want to direct his energies somewhere in a violent manner, whether it be sparking the Italian Wars three decades early, invading the Swiss cantons as Charles the Bold did OTL, even reigniting the Hundred Years War by trying to seize Calais, or some other wild course? Speaking of, Edward IV's invasion of France in 1475 would likely not be bought off with the Treaty of Picquigny, simply because it was not in the Bold's nature to make peace. Ever. Would the English be able to reassert their rights over continental France, in the context of a brotherly civil war and semi-independent feudal nobles? Most likely not, but Normandy or Aquitaine might be recovered if Louis the Bold massively screws up. However, given how Charles the Bold destroyed his army fighting against the Swiss three times IOTL, while making fervent enemies of all his neighbours, I would not put said massive screw up past Louis the Bold TTL. That itself will have knock-on effects in England itself, especially with regards to Clarence's crackpot plans to be "Regent of France" and so forth.

For the sake of a productive discussion, let's keep talk about alternate family trees to a minimum - the real POD here is the switch in personality itself, not whether Mary of Burgundy has a brother or if Louis XI marries differently. History is about way more than just a few noble families having sons instead of daughters, or vice-versa, anyways.

So, what are everyone's thoughts on this scenario?
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_St._Jakob_an_der_Birs

A change fairly early in his career. With the contempt Charles held the Swiss in OTL I imagine then-Dauphine Louis the Bold will take the wrong lesson from this battle and decide that he can easily press on and defeat the Swiss in his expedition. And then probably hold a grudge and try again once he's king. And possibly again once that fails.

Relevant specifically to England and the War of the Roses, the first thing that comes to mind is whether there would be an alliance between Margaret of Anjou and the Earl of Warwick without Louis the Spider pushing pieces to arrange it.

That's just two divergences off the top of my head though. With the eventfulness of both their reigns OTL, you can find plenty of things that could be changed here.
 
Louis XI has a significant advantage in already having a kingdom, something Charles clearly wanted but couldn't have without conquests and some shenanigans in the HRE.
 
Louis XI has a significant advantage in already having a kingdom, something Charles clearly wanted but couldn't have without conquests and some shenanigans in the HRE.
And being “bold” does not mean that he is automatically against the Swiss with whom, unlike Charles, rash or wise, he does not have conflict, not to mention an absence of the common border. If Charles the Wise still wants to get the pieces of his territory together, he needs to court the Swiss but the problem remains: the cantons would almost inevitably treat the Burgundian acquisition of Alsace and Lorraine as a threat to their security and, wise or rash, Louis has deeper pockets and is not necessarily an idiot. Burgundian state was rich but this did not map into a huge steady revenue for its rulers because each piece of the territory had its own laws. IIRC, the estates of Burgundy had to vote for the money necessary for Charles’ military buildup but de Commines did not mentioned other parts of the state. Charles had to cut expenses of his court but his army was usually smaller than the Swiss opponents.

Now, in OTL Louis, wise as he was, was not exactly a military genius or even anything above the routine level of a general knowledge and was seemingly pretty much on a “knightly” side of a warfare: the battle of Montlhery was a mess (on both sides) but the firearms (which won the last battles of the 100YW) had been noticeably absent. At Guinegate all the innovative ideas had been on the opposite side (the French relied almost exclusively upon the knights attacks against the pikemen columns and this was after the Burgundian experience). The francs-archers had been pretty much neglected in the terms of training and performed poorly, to put it mildly. So the Wise Charles is going to have the same attitudes and is not even going to try to build a reasonably modern army (as Louis did not). The Burgundian state keeps relying almost exclusively upon the feudal militia with all underlying problems.

OTOH, Louis the Rush would conduct a military reform and if in OTL the modernized Burgundian army was beaten by the Swiss, its ATL French equivalent is not going to met them and will have time for a further development. It would be definitely more than adequate in the case of invasion of Italy and a further development could provide France with a national infantry well ahead of the schedule: with all its complexity and inefficiency the Burgundian model had quite advanced underlying idea of pike and shot infantry formations. Of course, implementation was moronic and tactical handling even worse but, unlike OTL Burgundy, France has time and does not have to face a strong opponent like the Swiss.

Edit: Actually, with almost unavoidable conflict between Burgundy and Swiss (with a wiser Burgundian ruler it may end up before escalating into a complete disaster as was the case with the conflicts during the rule of Charles’ father), Louis the Rush but Not Too Stupid could put two and two together and start hiring the Swiss as was the case even with his not too intelligent OTL successors. Actually, OTL Louis was not hiring them directly in any noticeable numbers, so his son (definitely not a genius) was much more advanced when he invaded Italy: France had the most powerful artillery and the big numbers of Swiss mercenaries. So perhaps the less intelligent monarch could be even better in the military matters? 😂


The next inevitable problem is with the HRE because almost no matter what most of the Burgundian expansion happens within the HRE and, regardless the legalities, can be considered a threat to the imperial power. Of course, Charles the Wise can behave in a smarter way and, if everything else is the same, arrange for the marriage of his only daughter to Max “the empty pockets”. But this leaves a huge legal problem with the French part of Valois Burgundy. What Charles can do or offer to convince Louis to give away the claim to these lands?



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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_St._Jakob_an_der_Birs

A change fairly early in his career. With the contempt Charles held the Swiss in OTL I imagine then-Dauphine Louis the Bold will take the wrong lesson from this battle and decide that he can easily press on and defeat the Swiss in his expedition. And then probably hold a grudge and try again once he's king. And possibly again once that fails.

Relevant specifically to England and the War of the Roses, the first thing that comes to mind is whether there would be an alliance between Margaret of Anjou and the Earl of Warwick without Louis the Spider pushing pieces to arrange it.

That's just two divergences off the top of my head though. With the eventfulness of both their reigns OTL, you can find plenty of things that could be changed here.
Good idea to throw in butterflies from earlier in Louis' life than I had initially considered. Assuming that Louis the Bold pushes on TTL and gets he and his army destroyed, a peace of some sort would probably be made quickly between the Swiss and France, which OTL followed around a year or so after the battle at any rate. And from this clash he can start getting ideas on how best to reform the feudal army that had gotten trounced by the professional pikemen, as alexmilman suggested.

I really like the idea of the Kingmaker and the Lancastrians just floating in Europe for years, bouncing around from court to court. Its possible, even probable, that a reconciliation between Warwick and Edward IV would eventually occur if there's absolutely no opening in England for Warwick to get his due, facilitated by either his brother John of Montagu or his son-in-law George of Clarence; both men were on the fence about the whole betrayal thing IIRC, with Montagu even appearing to be loyal to Edward for a good while. Meanwhile Edward of Westminster grows up in exile as a Richard de la Pole type of character, I imagine.
Louis XI has a significant advantage in already having a kingdom, something Charles clearly wanted but couldn't have without conquests and some shenanigans in the HRE.
It is true that Louis XI had a kingdom already, but it was still one arrayed with a surfeit of uppity nobles - the War of the Public Weal and the Mad War proves that well enough. Without a deft, diplomatic approach to opponents both domestic and foreign, I don't think its unreasonable for Louis the Bold to find his hands tied, or his resources rather less than he had hope for, despite being the King of France. Conversely, Charles the Spider would surely be able to forge a kingdom for himself given time, as Frederick III was willing to give OTL Charles the crown of Burgundy for a time, and can probably finesse territories to his realm by hook and crook legalities rather than brute military force.
And being “bold” does not mean that he is automatically against the Swiss with whom, unlike Charles, rash or wise, he does not have conflict, not to mention an absence of the common border. If Charles the Wise still wants to get the pieces of his territory together, he needs to court the Swiss but the problem remains: the cantons would almost inevitably treat the Burgundian acquisition of Alsace and Lorraine as a threat to their security and, wise or rash, Louis has deeper pockets and is not necessarily an idiot. Burgundian state was rich but this did not map into a huge steady revenue for its rulers because each piece of the territory had its own laws. IIRC, the estates of Burgundy had to vote for the money necessary for Charles’ military buildup but de Commines did not mentioned other parts of the state. Charles had to cut expenses of his court but his army was usually smaller than the Swiss opponents.

Now, in OTL Louis, wise as he was, was not exactly a military genius or even anything above the routine level of a general knowledge and was seemingly pretty much on a “knightly” side of a warfare: the battle of Montlhery was a mess (on both sides) but the firearms (which won the last battles of the 100YW) had been noticeably absent. At Guinegate all the innovative ideas had been on the opposite side (the French relied almost exclusively upon the knights attacks against the pikemen columns and this was after the Burgundian experience). The francs-archers had been pretty much neglected in the terms of training and performed poorly, to put it mildly. So the Wise Charles is going to have the same attitudes and is not even going to try to build a reasonably modern army (as Louis did not). The Burgundian state keeps relying almost exclusively upon the feudal militia with all underlying problems.

OTOH, Louis the Rush would conduct a military reform and if in OTL the modernized Burgundian army was beaten by the Swiss, its ATL French equivalent is not going to met them and will have time for a further development. It would be definitely more than adequate in the case of invasion of Italy and a further development could provide France with a national infantry well ahead of the schedule: with all its complexity and inefficiency the Burgundian model had quite advanced underlying idea of pike and shot infantry formations. Of course, implementation was moronic and tactical handling even worse but, unlike OTL Burgundy, France has time and does not have to face a strong opponent like the Swiss.

Edit: Actually, with almost unavoidable conflict between Burgundy and Swiss (with a wiser Burgundian ruler it may end up before escalating into a complete disaster as was the case with the conflicts during the rule of Charles’ father), Louis the Rush but Not Too Stupid could put two and two together and start hiring the Swiss as was the case even with his not too intelligent OTL successors. Actually, OTL Louis was not hiring them directly in any noticeable numbers, so his son (definitely not a genius) was much more advanced when he invaded Italy: France had the most powerful artillery and the big numbers of Swiss mercenaries. So perhaps the less intelligent monarch could be even better in the military matters? 😂


The next inevitable problem is with the HRE because almost no matter what most of the Burgundian expansion happens within the HRE and, regardless the legalities, can be considered a threat to the imperial power. Of course, Charles the Wise can behave in a smarter way and, if everything else is the same, arrange for the marriage of his only daughter to Max “the empty pockets”. But this leaves a huge legal problem with the French part of Valois Burgundy. What Charles can do or offer to convince Louis to give away the claim to these lands?



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Thank you for you thorough analysis, I enjoyed reading it. :) However, I do think this is transposing the finest qualities of OTL Charles onto ATL Louis, whilst doing the opposite for OTL Louis onto ATL Charles. From the sounds of it Charles the Bold was just a flat-out a better ruler than Louis the Spider, in both intrigue and war. :p

I do agree that Louis the Bold will attempt to reform the French army into a more professional force, especially if he still has his encounter with the Swiss at St. Jakob. And also that Charles the Spider will probably shy away from direct confrontations with the Cantons on top of not conducting any military reforms. However, I do not believe that the War of the Public Weal would go nearly as well for ATL Louis XI if the mastermind behind the noble coalition is Charles the Spider, nor would the bellicose Louis the Bold have an easy time finding allies to stand besides him. As long as Charles, Duke of Berry, remains alive, he can always be a focal point for any opposition to Louis the Bold and his centralizing, reforming ways. Furthermore, if Berry is alive, then he can be wed to Mary of Burgundy and keep her realm intact that way - it seems to have been the deal OTL AFAIK, though its from Wikipedia so obviously take it with a grain of salt.

I've thought through this scenario a bit, and perhaps Louis XI would decide to kick off the Italian Wars three decades early as he presses his maternal claim to Naples, in a rough equivalent to Charles the Bold's OTL wars against the Swiss? He'll have a fancy new army to show off and covetous legal rights to assert - its as much reason he would need, imo. Militarily, Louis the Bold might very well be successful, but this French aggression will also trigger a response from the rest of Europe. Charles the Spider can probably rally a fairly effective coalition to contain French ambitions, if the historical Italian Wars and anti-Burgundian conflicts were anything to go by, and again there will be internal French dissent against their king running off to have wild foreign adventures if they have not been sufficiently quelled by earlier civil wars. There's also the chance that Louis the Bold will do something suitably daring (or just lead from the front one too many times) and get himself killed a bit too early, leaving Charles VIII with an even longer regency...
 
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I just think who Charles the Spider would marry his heiress to Nicholas of Anjou (who here will NOT be engaged to Anne of France as Louis the Bold will not use his daughters as pawn in that way), while Louis the Bold will have the great troubles of his brother Berry, but also the Orleans/Bourbon alliance (cemented by the wedding between Peter of Bourbon and Marie d’Orleans, as again Anne will not be used for block this match), the young Duke d’ Orléans free to marry whoever he want (Louis the Bold will not force him to marry a girl fit only for the convent) and the Duke of Brittany free to marry off his daughter
 
I just think who Charles the Spider would marry his heiress to Nicholas of Anjou (who here will NOT be engaged to Anne of France as Louis the Bold will not use his daughters as pawn in that way), while Louis the Bold will have the great troubles of his brother Berry, but also the Orleans/Bourbon alliance (cemented by the wedding between Peter of Bourbon and Marie d’Orleans, as again Anne will not be used for block this match), the young Duke d’ Orléans free to marry whoever he want (Louis the Bold will not force him to marry a girl fit only for the convent) and the Duke of Brittany free to marry off his daughter
Yeah, if Mary's still Charles' heir ITTL she'll definitely be marrying Nicolas. Otherwise I think Maxi, Gloucester/Clarence, or the next in line dude is probable.

Charles is also gonna dangle Mary's hand in front of practically everyone so I doubt any commitment to Berry is gonna happen.
 
Yeah, if Mary's still Charles' heir ITTL she'll definitely be marrying Nicolas. Otherwise I think Maxi, Gloucester/Clarence, or the next in line dude is probable.

Charles is also gonna dangle Mary's hand in front of practically everyone so I doubt any commitment to Berry is gonna happen.
No, no commitment to the most useful side followed by marriage as soon was possible is what Charles the Spider will do (as Anne was engaged to Nicholas then married off to Bourbon) and marrying his daughter to Nicholas is the best way for annexing Lorraine so Charles the Spider will engage her there. If he had a second daughter by Isabelle, well said daughter and a rich dowry would be sent to Maximilian in exchange for a royal crown from his father, but Mary would be married to Nicholas as soon she is 14/15
 
Thank you for you thorough analysis, I enjoyed reading it. :) However, I do think this is transposing the finest qualities of OTL Charles onto ATL Louis, whilst doing the opposite for OTL Louis onto ATL Charles. From the sounds of it Charles the Bold was just a flat-out a better ruler than Louis the Spider, in both intrigue and war. :p

I do agree that Louis the Bold will attempt to reform the French army into a more professional force, especially if he still has his encounter with the Swiss at St. Jakob. And also that Charles the Spider will probably shy away from direct confrontations with the Cantons on top of not conducting any military reforms. However, I do not believe that the War of the Public Weal would go nearly as well for ATL Louis XI if the mastermind behind the noble coalition is Charles the Spider, nor would the bellicose Louis the Bold have an easy time finding allies to stand besides him. As long as Charles, Duke of Berry, remains alive, he can always be a focal point for any opposition to Louis the Bold and his centralizing, reforming ways. Furthermore, if Berry is alive, then he can be wed to Mary of Burgundy and keep her realm intact that way - it seems to have been the deal OTL AFAIK, though its from Wikipedia so obviously take it with a grain of salt.

I've thought through this scenario a bit, and perhaps Louis XI would decide to kick off the Italian Wars three decades early as he presses his maternal claim to Naples, in a rough equivalent to Charles the Bold's OTL wars against the Swiss? He'll have a fancy new army to show off and covetous legal rights to assert - its as much reason he would need, imo. Militarily, Louis the Bold might very well be successful, but this French aggression will also trigger a response from the rest of Europe. Charles the Spider can probably rally a fairly effective coalition to contain French ambitions, if the historical Italian Wars and anti-Burgundian conflicts were anything to go by, and again there will be internal French dissent against their king running off to have wild foreign adventures if they have not been sufficiently quelled by earlier civil wars. There's also the chance that Louis the Bold will do something suitably daring (or just lead from the front one too many times) and get himself killed a bit too early, leaving Charles VIII with an even longer regency...

I did not say anything about the intrigues but in OTL Louis was extremely unimpressive as a general and did not exist as a military reformer. Charles was a mediocre general but at least had some ideas about military reforms. Of course, while the implementation was wrong (*) but when everybody is eager to criticize him it should not be forgotten that his main opponent were the Swiss who had been defeating all their opponents, including the French, all the way to Marignano. Small wonder that his inexperienced and outnumbered troops had been beaten. Probably a better general could avoid these battles altogether but I’m not sure that anybody short of a military genius could win in these circumstances.

Now, Louis was definitely better as a master of the intrigue but as far as conflict with the Swiss is involved, expansion of the Burgundy was objectively endangering the Cantons and a better politician could delay the confrontation but hardly to avoid it and in that conflict Louis of Burgundy would have only the Burgundian militia (which fled at the sight f the advancing Swiss). De Commines explicitly wrote that the Duchy did not have any kind of a standing army prior to Charles’ reforms. OTL Louis would fit into this situation just fine (BTW, while in exile in Burgundy he also had experience of fighting against the Swiss and did not use this experience to modernize the French army). So the best and only policy for him would be to abstain from any serious attempt to link pieces of his possessions and remain in peace enjoying hunting.

Now, as far as the League of the Public Weal is involved, I’m not sure that it would even happen because Louis of Burgundy may be too cautious (and will not necessarily try to pursue an idea of Burgundian independence) while Charles of France would not necessarily try to assert his power to the same degree as Louis did in OTL. So the broad support for anti-royal war may not materialize. Anyway, the war hardly could be conducted worse than under Louis and a more “knightly” king would probably freely give most of the appointments and concessions that Louis was forced to give.

OTOH, the French aristocracy would more likely to rally for some foreign adventure with a clear possibility of a looting, especially when led by a brave and idiotic king like OTL Charles VIII or Francis I. ATL Charles VIII is almost an ideal figure for starting the Italian Wars with a much better timing: Spain is not, yet, united and can’t effectively interfere and Frederick III has neither money nor troops and whatever he can raise would be the feudal militia because Maximillian and creation of the landsknechts is a matter of future.

My point is that besides personalities and dynastic marriages there were also the objective factors which are at least equally important. France was objectively a pretty much national state even if not fully “centralized”. The royal power had an established financial backup: a permanent tax legalized by the Estates generals. Some major feudal lords could be looking for retaining their traditional privileges or for some profitable appointments but they were not permanently united and not universally against the king (look at the list of the participants on both sides). Under the not too bright king power consolidation could go slower (raising fewer hackles) but, anyway, it is not like OTL Louis solved the problem: this was done only by defeat of the Fronde. However, the process of power consolidation continued and France survived very serious challenges without having a single intelligent and capable monarch between Louis XI and Henry IV.

OTOH, the Valois Burgundy was a chaotic assembly of the entities united by nothing except ruler’s personality. The dukes, IIRC, had been trying to create some consolidated administrative structures but not with a big success and not without a local opposition which could be quite serious in the case of infringement on their traditional liberties (Max had to fight a prolonged war which required help from the HRE). Politically, they also were in a precarious situation because their goal to create an independent state was going against the interests of both France and the HRE and, realistically, could not be accomplished without a major defeat of France on a scale which hardly could be achieved and legalized. So the best course for survival would be continuation of the policies of Phillip the Good who was acquiring pieces of territory without making too much noice and avoiding major conflicts (routine small scale wars with the limited goals do not count). You may notice that he created the Estates-Generals fr the Netherlands (but not for all of his territories) but had to ask for a loan to finance his war. Similarly, Charles the Bold had to ask the Estates of Burgundy for a money grant to finance his reforms. It took a single not too capable ruler for the Burgundian state to fall apart. In other words, the Burgundian “state” (hardly a true state) was too weak inherently to survive in its existing form even if it’s disintegration could be delayed. Magic solutions based upon the marriage are unlikely (the Duchy of Burgundy would be lost) and an idea of Burgundy being made a kingdom within the HRE goes against the existing experience: AFAIK, there were no precedents and even Hohenzollern was made ‘King in Prussia”. An intelligent ruler would satisfy himself, as Phillip the Good, with something like “Grand Duke of the West”.


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(*) His army was based upon administrative structure of a lance instead of clearly separating the infantry from cavalry. However, it had a lot of the firearms. Unfortunately, at that time they were not effective enough to win against the Swiss pikes.
 
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