WI Louis VIII successfully conquers England?

[Fortuna]

As the prince of France Louis the eighth invaded England in 1216 and was proclaimed king in London by quite a few barons. But was excommunicated by a papal legate and when king John died many of his supporters abandoned him in favor of the English kings son Henry. Leading to him being defeated and forced to go back to France and abandon his claims on the English throne.

I'm proposing that what if instead cardinal Guala Bicchieri is neutral or even supports Louis' claim to the throne, and in addition king John either lives longer (thus staying hated) or conveniently prince Henry dies. And Louis manages to secure England under his control. What effects would this have on England and western Europe as a whole. Louis becomes the king of France not long after he was defeated iotl. With England and France united in personal union will France have an even larger influence in European affairs? What would the effects on english be? As at this time a large portion of the nobility still speaks and is fluent in French. Assume Louis VIII doesn't dye of dysentery in 1226 and has a long reign ahead of him to cement the union of England and France.

 

[Elfwine]

I'm not sure how strong a grip Louis will have on England, as far as that trying to manage either England or France is going to take a fair amount of effort/energy/time/loyal supporters (as in really dependable as far as exerting royal will, not just loyal as in "ignoring Prince Richard, John's second son").

If things go more or less like OTL , he's probably going to care about dealing with things in Southern France, which drags his attention far away from England and English matters.

If he lives about as long as his father, which would be unusual but not impossible he has another twenty years or so over his OTL lifespan as far as what cementing a personal union that exists solely on the grounds the English barons accepted him as king in England (meaning that his heir is by no means guaranteed to inherit there - he's welcome to try to get Prince Philip* made his heir in England too, but getting support for that will undoubtedly come at some price or another).

* Louis's eldest son (born 1209, died 1218 OTL), OTL's Saint Louis is the next oldest living son of Louis VIII/I.

 

[Fortuna]

I'm not sure how strong a grip Louis will have on England, as far as that trying to manage either England or France is going to take a fair amount of effort/energy/time/loyal supporters (as in really dependable as far as exerting royal will, not just loyal as in "ignoring Prince Richard, John's second son").

If things go more or less like OTL , he's probably going to care about dealing with things in Southern France, which drags his attention far away from England and English matters.

If he lives about as long as his father, which would be unusual but not impossible he has another twenty years or so over his OTL lifespan as far as what cementing a personal union that exists solely on the grounds the English barons accepted him as king in England (meaning that his heir is by no means guaranteed to inherit there - he's welcome to try to get Prince Philip* made his heir in England too, but getting support for that will undoubtedly come at some price or another).

* Louis's eldest son (born 1209, died 1218 OTL), OTL's Saint Louis is the next oldest living son of Louis VIII/I.

I see, so assuming Louis lives long enough to have the two get used to being in personal union under him. What if the crown of England is inherited by one son and the crown of France by another? Would capetians on both sides of the channel lead to an even more French influenced England? And the two kingdoms cooperating more for total dynastic dominance in the British isles/ western Europe? Or would both of them having valid claims on the other kingdom now lead to an earlier series of hundreds years war style conflicts? Saint Louis himself was an able king and administrator especially in law. So I can see that if the personal union continues and he inherits both kingdoms that he would be the one to really start tying France and England together. My main interest to be honest is the effects of a renewed French influence in England and the possibilities of the two eventually merging, in the sense of a polish-lithuanian commonwealth analogue. Though I'm aware it's unlikely.

 

[Elfwine]

I see, so assuming Louis lives long enough to have the two get used to being in personal union under him. What if the crown of England is inherited by one son and the crown of France by another? Would capetians on both sides of the channel lead to an even more French influenced England? And the two kingdoms cooperating more for total dynastic dominance in the British isles/ western Europe? Or would both of them having valid claims on the other kingdom now lead to an earlier series of hundreds years war style conflicts? Saint Louis himself was an able king and administrator especially in law. So I can see that if the personal union continues and he inherits both kingdoms that he would be the one to really start tying France and England together. My main interest to be honest is the effects of a renewed French influence in England and the possibilities of the two eventually merging, in the sense of a polish-lithuanian commonwealth analogue. Though I'm aware it's unlikely.

I don't think any human lifetime is long enough for "used to personal union" under normal circumstances - not to say it immediately dissolves and that's the only possible option, but I think at best Louis has set something in place for "in exchange for concessions, we accept one of your sons (may be the one getting France, may not, that's on how Louis does this)."

Philip died too young OTL to have any idea how well he'd get along with his brother, but my money is not on full cooperation (if nothing else, why does the French Capet branch care over much, as opposed to pursuing their own goals/concerns?).

Hundred Years War style conflicts I'm not sure, but it's harder to justify the claim of a younger brother over an older one vs. "A nephew > a cousin.", I think. Might be more relevant if the French branch of the Capet dynasty dies out, as the English line (assuming it ultimately establishes itself - this probably won't happen in one generation but it sticking around with competent kings may keep it from going elective) would be a senior male-line Capet branch. And yet perversely they may very well own less land in France (see below on Aquitaine) than Edward III.

If you want tying England and France together and merging, looking at the OTL union of England and Scotland, it took a century between "a king with both crowns" and "this is one kingdom" and longer for Poland and Lithuania to merge.

I'm not sure how much on the cultural influence,this isn't my area of expertise, but the early Plantagenets are very French already. And interestingly enough, this scenario leaves them or the next in line with Aquitaine (unless Louis is able/willing to confiscate the duchy - OTL that took a long time for reasons I'd suggest asking someone more an expert on medieval France than me about). Might be interesting.

 

[Hastings]

I would assume that Aquitaine would go with France in the future? It isn't like Aquitaine is part of England in any legal sense and it is a bit of a rump at this point anyway. Once he has control of the English throne, I can't imagine Aquitaine remaining hostile other than the usual vassal unrest. Even if Louis runs it during his father's life, it will then merge with the crown and I doubt if England is given a separate throne, the French lands will be included.

There might be a lot of fun. Younger sons have often tried to overthrow their brothers and combine that with the higher mortality of the time, and the two kingdoms are likely to keep merging and separating at least until if and when the English get upset and succeed at establishing their own dynasty.

 

[Elfwine]

Presumably with France, yeah. Just that TTL sees the duke and the king of England (whoever that ends up being) being two separate people, and that is an interesting wrinkle as far as English entanglements.

 

[DJ03]

The Capetians didn't usually split their inheritance equally, so the one that ends up ruling england (otl's Robert of Artois, I guess) would be a vassal of his French elder brother who may even keep the English royal title for himself
This won't sit well with the English nobility, so we probably end up w/ a reversed hundred years' war at some point
If the continentals were to win said conflict, we'd see a long lasting anglo-french union w/ unpredictable consequences for the rest of europe
What would happen to an English language being influenced even more by the French?
What could happen to wales, assuming the French have their hands full with england for a while?

 

[Fortuna]

I don't think any human lifetime is long enough for "used to personal union" under normal circumstances - not to say it immediately dissolves and that's the only possible option, but I think at best Louis has set something in place for "in exchange for concessions, we accept one of your sons (may be the one getting France, may not, that's on how Louis does this)."

Philip died too young OTL to have any idea how well he'd get along with his brother, but my money is not on full cooperation (if nothing else, why does the French Capet branch care over much, as opposed to pursuing their own goals/concerns?).

Hundred Years War style conflicts I'm not sure, but it's harder to justify the claim of a younger brother over an older one vs. "A nephew > a cousin.", I think. Might be more relevant if the French branch of the Capet dynasty dies out, as the English line (assuming it ultimately establishes itself - this probably won't happen in one generation but it sticking around with competent kings may keep it from going elective) would be a senior male-line Capet branch. And yet perversely they may very well own less land in France (see below on Aquitaine) than Edward III.

If you want tying England and France together and merging, looking at the OTL union of England and Scotland, it took a century between "a king with both crowns" and "this is one kingdom" and longer for Poland and Lithuania to merge.

I'm not sure how much on the cultural influence,this isn't my area of expertise, but the early Plantagenets are very French already. And interestingly enough, this scenario leaves them or the next in line with Aquitaine (unless Louis is able/willing to confiscate the duchy - OTL that took a long time for reasons I'd suggest asking someone more an expert on medieval France than me about). Might be interesting.

Thanks for the input, and yeah I meant "getting used to a personal union" as reigning long enough to set the precedent for it. Because I definitely know kingdoms won't emerge after being in personal union for only 1 or 2 generations lol. Would be interesting to see how the plantagenents end up though.

 

[Fortuna]

The Capetians didn't usually split their inheritance equally, so the one that ends up ruling england (otl's Robert of Artois, I guess) would be a vassal of his French elder brother who may even keep the English royal title for himself
This won't sit well with the English nobility, so we probably end up w/ a reversed hundred years' war at some point
If the continentals were to win said conflict, we'd see a long lasting anglo-french union w/ unpredictable consequences for the rest of europe
What would happen to an English language being influenced even more by the French?
What could happen to wales, assuming the French have their hands full with england for a while?

This is what lead to me posting my question, Louis viii's invasion happened before the hundred years war and the birth of the "national consciousness" of France and England. Which means in my head there's a semi possible chance of the two merging identities and believing to be part of the same "nation". Especially if some outside war occurs that threatens both the England and France parts of the union, leading to the people and soldiers having to work together and unite to defeat the invaders.
And I didn't even think of Wales or potential other butterflies. But I think that if the French are tied up with keeping England down and England itself is more tied into continental affairs that Wales likely will be given the breathing room it needs to unite and form its own kingdom. I'm also wondering if maybe the capets might strike a deal with the Scots that they can have the northern marches or something if they help the French conquer England. A bigger Scotland is also interesting. And Ireland itself is probably safe from French influence with them not being in Wales or Scotland and so maybe Ireland unites or gets conquered by Scotland or Wales, or something really crazy happens.

 

[Elfwine]

Thanks for the input, and yeah I meant "getting used to a personal union" as reigning long enough to set the precedent for it. Because I definitely know kingdoms won't emerge after being in personal union for only 1 or 2 generations lol. Would be interesting to see how the plantagenents end up though.

I'm not an expert, so take it as just my best understanding if one of the people more familiar with medieval France/the Capet dynasty comes along as far as that part (I feel somewhat more confident in my knowledge of English politics).

The Plantagenet definitely should be something as I can't imagine they're going to be happy to lose the throne of England. How much they can do about that is a good question (ducal resources are pretty slim), but it's a thing - and while OTL Henry III wasn't much of a ruler, his younger brother seems to have been much more competent.

 

[kasumigenx]

This is more plausible if Louis VIII married Eleanor of Brittany instead.