WI: Louis Napoleon (Napoleon III) died in 1831 instead of his brother?

In 1831, during the turmoils due to the insurrections in Central Italy, Napoleon Louis Bonaparte contracted measles and died in Forlì while trying to leave Italy together with his older brother Louis Napoleon, as they were researched by the authorities of the Papal Sates for their seditious activities and Carbonari sympathies.

What if it was the younger brother to fall sick and die? Obviously he could not later become Napoleon III, but maybe Napoleon Louis could take up the same role? I doubt it, because from what I could find out about him he seemed to be much more introverted than the brother and maybe less ambitious.

What do you think about it? Would maybe France fare better without Napoleon III? Could the French Republic survive, assumng a revolution similar to otl's 1848?
 
I doubt there would be another Emperor without Louis Napoleon, so that means the Second Republic lives on a little longer. The question is in what form, the Republic was a mess of different factions that Napoleon III successful maneuvered through, with him out of the picture I'm not sure who would fit the vacuum.
 
I don't think the socialists could emerge victorious, as outside Paris they had practically zero support.
On the other side the moderate republican Cavaignac, who had suppressed the socialist uprising in Paris, in the absence of a new Bonaparte, could maybe be seen as the lesser evil and supported by the orleanist faction. But could the republican institution find a degree of stability under him?
 
I've seen a few discussions on 1848 without the future Nappy III and the general consensus was that the Second Republic wasn't built to last and that an Orléanist restoration would've been the most likely and I'd tend to agree. Most French liberals and almost all conservatives were monarchists of some persuasion and considering how terrible the contemporary Bourbonist and Bonapartist candidates were, the House of Orléans really was the "best bet".

François d'Orléans, the third son of Louis Philippe I, is probably the best candidate. IOTL he was one of the few Orléanist princes to be involved in French politics and he even attempted to become French president IOTL in 1852 to allow a restoration of his family (this was thwarted by Nappy III's coup that made him emperor). So yeah, he'd be willing to do what the Bonaparte wouldn't be able to do due to him being dead then.

How his reign would impact France is hard to say, though one can safely say that IF the American Civil War were to occur ITTL, then France wouldn't even remotely consider getting involved, especially on the Confederate side, since François favored the Union and even made his sole son enroll in a US naval academy in order to support the US. So judging from that this new Kingdom of France would be less "ambitious" on the international stage compared to the Second French Empire, which isn't that hard and which would help spare French lives and money (since the Second Mexican Empire would also be butterflied away). Also the House of Orléans was quite pro-British (just like the House of Bonaparte under Nappy III, actually), so I don't see a Franco-British rivalry breaking out either (which is also beneficial for France).
 
I've seen a few discussions on 1848 without the future Nappy III and the general consensus was that the Second Republic wasn't built to last and that an Orléanist restoration would've been the most likely and I'd tend to agree. Most French liberals and almost all conservatives were monarchists of some persuasion and considering how terrible the contemporary Bourbonist and Bonapartist candidates were, the House of Orléans really was the "best bet".

François d'Orléans, the third son of Louis Philippe I, is probably the best candidate. IOTL he was one of the few Orléanist princes to be involved in French politics and he even attempted to become French president IOTL in 1852 to allow a restoration of his family (this was thwarted by Nappy III's coup that made him emperor). So yeah, he'd be willing to do what the Bonaparte wouldn't be able to do due to him being dead then.

How his reign would impact France is hard to say, though one can safely say that IF the American Civil War were to occur ITTL, then France wouldn't even remotely consider getting involved, especially on the Confederate side, since François favored the Union and even made his sole son enroll in a US naval academy in order to support the US. So judging from that this new Kingdom of France would be less "ambitious" on the international stage compared to the Second French Empire, which isn't that hard and which would help spare French lives and money (since the Second Mexican Empire would also be butterflied away). Also the House of Orléans was quite pro-British (just like the House of Bonaparte under Nappy III, actually), so I don't see a Franco-British rivalry breaking out either (which is also beneficial for France).

What role, if any, would Napoleon Louis play? Even if he is completely uninterested in politics his pedigree will ensure he is involved by default - either he can be made to support the regime, or he will become a rallying figure for the opposition. The question is, would the House of Orléans attempt to buy him off by ennobling him and co-opting the support of the Bonapartists? Otherwise its perpetual exile for the unfortunate Napoleon Louis.
 
What role, if any, would Napoleon Louis play? Even if he is completely uninterested in politics his pedigree will ensure he is involved by default - either he can be made to support the regime, or he will become a rallying figure for the opposition. The question is, would the House of Orléans attempt to buy him off by ennobling him and co-opting the support of the Bonapartists? Otherwise its perpetual exile for the unfortunate Napoleon Louis.

Well, how both Napoleon Louis (and Plonplon) would react to an Orléanist restoration is difficult to predict... Both of them were anti-clerical (with Plonplon being the more conservative of the two, however) and both were Italian nationalists. So maybe they get involved in French politics and follow those policies, maybe they pick exile in either the UK or the Italian states... I'm not that big of an expert of the Bonapartes, sadly, so I can only make vague predictions like that.
 
I concur with Iserlohn in saying that it is very difficult to predict the developement of the personality of Napoléon Louis. He will probably still be a rallying point for the various Bonapartists, but I thinj that it would be difficult for him to repeat his brother's takeover, because he strikes me as being somewhat less energetic and ambitious than his brother. He might probably finish in exile in Italy and maybe have some part in the Risorgimento.

As to the Orléanist resoration, it will probably pursue a more moderate foreign policy than Nap III did. What could this mean for naval developement?

Maybe ships like the Napoléon (first steam powered battleship) and La Gloire (first ironclad, lthough wooden hulled) could be butterflied or at least built later than otl, and this would cause less of a naval arms race with britain, that might not be encouraged to build innovative ships like HMS Warrior (first iron hulled ironclad).

On the other hand, the Paixhans gun, advances in metallrgy and steam engine mean that the era of wooden warships is still destined to end very soon, after equivalents to OTL's battles of Sinop or Hampton Roads, everybody will want to shift to ironclads.
Still I think that, without aggressive shipbuilding on France's part, England has no incentive to introduce radical innovations, because of the Royal Navy's superiority in traditional vessels. So the advent of the ironclad could be delayed by maybe a decade?
 
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