WI: Louis II of Bohemia and Hungary has a posthumous child with Mary of Austria

[SavoyTruffle]

Given that a notable subsection of topics in this forum centers around Renaissance royal lines, I thought to throw my own question here.

Let's say that Louis II still marries Mary of Austria as in OTL, and still dies at Mohacs against the Ottomans. However, one key POD is that TTL Mary of Austria is visibly pregnant and carries the child to term.

Obviously, a daughter wouldn't be ideal for the continuation of the Jagiellons, while a son would at worst delay Habsburg hegemony over Bohemia and Hungary for another generation.

So what would the effects be of yet another Hungarian posthumous monarch?

 

[BlueFlowwer]

If its a daughter then she'll be marrying Ferdinand's heir to combine the kingdoms and strengthen all claims to Hungary.

 

[kaiidth]

A boy would be nice, 2nd Cousin Catherine Jagiellon is in the same age, strengthen the Jagiellon blood.

 

[isabella]

A boy would be nice, 2nd Cousin Catherine Jagiellon is in the same age, strengthen the Jagiellon blood.

Do you really believe it? He will marry a double first cousin (aka one of the daughters of Ferdinand and Anna).
The child, either boy or girl, would likely get both the Kingdoms of his father and appropriately married to one of the children of Ferdinand and Anna.

 

[kaiidth]

Yeah, I really believe that.
One of Anna/Ferdinands girls would of course be quite logical but I believe that the Jagellions will try their best to strengthen their influence and to keep the Habsburgs out as best as they can. Especially Bona disliked them if I remember correctly and she would surely love to play these kind of games and to get this particular King as husband for her own daughter.

 

[isabella]

Yeah, I really believe that.
One of Anna/Ferdinands girls would of course be quite logical but I believe that the Jagellions will try their best to strengthen their influence and to keep the Habsburgs out as best as they can. Especially Bona disliked them if I remember correctly and she would surely love to play these kind of games and to get this particular King as husband for her own daughter.

And what influence do you believe will ever have Bona on Louis and Mary’s child who is an half-Habsburg and will be under the regency of his Habsburg mother with the support of his Habsburg uncle? In Hungary and Bohemia the next-in-line is Anna not Sigismund

 

[kaiidth]

And what influence do you believe will ever have Bona on Louis and Mary’s child who is an half-Habsburg and will be under the regency of his Habsburg mother with the support of his Habsburg uncle? In Hungary and Bohemia the next-in-line is Anna not Sigismund

Hmm...
Good question.

Who would have control over the little heir of Hungary and Bohemia, if the Mother Mary of Austria dies in Childbed?

Will the little King then immediately be transferred into Habsburgian hands, those of his direct aunt Anna?

 

[isabella]

Hmm...
Good question.

Who would have control over the little heir of Hungary and Bohemia, if the Mother Mary of Austria dies in Childbed?

Will the little King then immediately be transferred into Habsburgian hands, those of his direct aunt Anna?

Pretty likely as Anna is the sister of his father and Ferdinand the brother of his mother so they would have control over the child and at least Bohemia (but over Hungary also is pretty likely as Zapolya can not contest the succession of Louis’ son but only asking a big role in the government)

 

[Tibi088]

Im not sure the suession would go without a fight:
A big part of the hungarian nobility doesnt relish the idea of a foreign monarch. Another big chunk of them believes that opposing the Ottomans - which will be the main role of any king in their eyes - Is a job for a grown man. I think they (those who didnt perish at Mohács) might decide try to elect someone who fits the bill. It happened last time a posthumus monarch was to get the throne.

 

[Deleted member 145893]

The poor child would be born into a cauldron of chaos with the Ottomans to the east, the Habsburgs to the west, a rival claimant in the form of János Zápolya and on top of that the young bairn would inherit a shell of a kingdom. That would put the kid in a precarious position.

Would the Habsburgs, sensing that they had support amongst some of the Hungarian nobility, recognise Louis' child as the rightful heir or would they go all in hoping that this support would be enough to get Ferdinand elected.

What would János do? He also enjoys similar support within the nobility so why would he support the child's claim when he could hope to take the Throne for himself?

Then there is Süleyman I The Magnificent. I get the impression that he was not Louis II biggest fan and he wouldn't particular be interest in the child's future prospects i.e. why support an infant who would have a fight on its hands just to survive when he already had János in the palm of his hand. Then again is it possible that Süleyman would see the baby as the one worth backing. The child would have the stronger claim and I guess it's easier to manipulate a young child than a grown man. So do you think that when János asks the Sultan for help that Süleyman would provide assistance, but only on the condition that János agrees to protect the child until (he) comes of age.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Im not sure the suession would go without a fight:
A big part of the hungarian nobility doesnt relish the idea of a foreign monarch. Another big chunk of them believes that opposing the Ottomans - which will be the main role of any king in their eyes - Is a job for a grown man. I think they (those who didnt perish at Mohács) might decide try to elect someone who fits the bill. It happened last time a posthumus monarch was to get the throne.

If Janos Zapolya presents himself as Matthias Corvinus reborn then perhaps the Hungarians elect him as king.

 

[Tibi088]

If Janos Zapolya presents himself as Matthias Corvinus reborn then perhaps the Hungarians elect him as king.

OTL it was enough that he was the last one standing of the hungarian magnates with a significant and intact army. Though OTL there was no heir to the king.

 

[Monter]

The thrones of Hungary and Bohemia are elective, being the child of the King is no means a guarantee for the crown, as Ladislaus the Posthumous showed 100 years earlier, once Louis Jr. is a grow man he may claim his birthright (if neither Ferdinand nor Zapolya offs him), but a 1 day old is really winning no magnate to back him the crown.

 

[Fehérvári]

The thrones of Hungary and Bohemia are elective, being the child of the King is no means a guarantee for the crown, as Ladislaus the Posthumous showed 100 years earlier,

The election of Vladislaus was an illegal act of the nobility. Legally, the succession of the ruling family's direct line was always garantueed. The right to elect a king was present only, when the late king had no son.

With that being said, nothing really stops the nobility from trying to elect anyway. Given though, that even IOTL the floor was mopped with Szapolyai quite fast(, atleast until the Turks got involved), I don't think he could fair much better ITTL, when there's an unquestionable rightful heir to the throne.

 

[Deleted member 145893]

The election of Vladislaus was an illegal act of the nobility. Legally, the succession of the ruling family's direct line was always garantueed. The right to elect a king was present only, when the late king had no son.

With that being said, nothing really stops the nobility from trying to elect anyway. Given though, that even IOTL the floor was mopped with Szapolyai quite fast(, atleast until the Turks got involved), I don't think he could fair much better ITTL, when there's an unquestionable rightful heir to the throne.

Why would anyone care about a rightful heir, unquestionable or otherwise, if they can simply 'buy' the Throne?

In England only legitimate male children could inherit the throne and if there were no male heirs then the King could determine the line of succession, but that was a rather messy process. Could János or Ferdinand, or more likely their agents, question the legitimacy of Louis' son ( spread rumours that the child was born out of wedlock or is a changeling or a product of Mary's alleged adulterous relations with an unknown man) would that be enough to disinherit the child and trigger the election process. I'm just thinking that if Louis wanted to secure his family's grip on the Throne he would not want to risk the prospect of leaving it vacant and therefore would do anything to have a male heir...

 

[Fehérvári]

Why would anyone care about a rightful heir, unquestionable or otherwise, if they can simply 'buy' the Throne?

Legitimacy, diplomatic sensibility, personal distaste towards Szapolyai, personal connections, prospect of easy manipulation of a childking, probably there are even more.

Could János or Ferdinand, or more likely their agents, question the legitimacy of Louis' son ( spread rumours that the child was born out of wedlock or is a changeling or a product of Mary's alleged adulterous relations with an unknown man) would that be enough to disinherit the child and trigger the election process.

OP wrote, that Mary would be visibly pregnant by the time of Mohács already. If Louis II didn't question her, how could they?

I'm just thinking that if Louis wanted to secure his family's grip on the Throne he would not want to risk the prospect of leaving it vacant and therefore would do anything to have a male heir...

?

 

[Deleted member 145893]

Legitimacy, diplomatic sensibility, personal distaste towards Szapolyai, personal connections, prospect of easy manipulation of a childking, probably there are even more.


OP wrote, that Mary would be visibly pregnant by the time of Mohács already. If Louis II didn't question her, how could they?

?

Rumours don't have to be logical all they need to do is to plant the seed of doubt for example although Mary is pregnant by the time of Mohács that does not necessarily mean that the child is Louis'... I'm thinking rumours such as Louis was perhaps incapable of fathering a child and not wanting to leave the throne vacant he would suffer the indignity of his wife having an extra marital arrangement and a voilà a male heir.

If the child is the unquestionable heir to the Throne i.e. his legitimacy is not in doubt then Ferdinand and János would not even be considered then maybe they would want to undermine the child king's claim and may concluded, separately of course, that if it is possible they would challenge the child's legitimacy and if the father is dead who would be around to say otherwise - Mary maybe but would anyone be that interested in hearing what she had to say.

My understand was that certain factions in the Hungarian Nobility favoured János whilst others favoured Ferdinand and that their respective supporters voted each of them to be King leading to the partition of the kingdom. János asked Süleyman I for help and correct me if I am wrong but Süleyman went and installed him in Buda. With Louis son out of the way János would be sitting pretty albeit as a vassal King to the Ottomans,

With all the Machiavellian plots swirling around the child king's head who would protect him? Would his mother have enough clout, being Austrian and the granddaughter of Maximilian I Holy Roman Emperor, or would her 'foreignness' be her downfall. Would Süleyman seek to manipulate the situation for himself - he may conclude that a true heir to the throne is better than a fake that owes his position to the untrustworthy Nobility, who seem to change their minds as quickly as the British weather, and therefore not all that reliable and more importantly he could use the child as a means to check the Habsburgs. As you say the prospect of easily manipulation could be very tempting...

 

[isabella]

Rumours don't have to be logical all they need to do is to plant the seed of doubt for example although Mary is pregnant by the time of Mohács that does not necessarily mean that the child is Louis'... I'm thinking rumours such as Louis was perhaps incapable of fathering a child and not wanting to leave the throne vacant he would suffer the indignity of his wife having an extra marital arrangement and a voilà a male heir.

If the child is the unquestionable heir to the Throne i.e. his legitimacy is not in doubt then Ferdinand and János would not even be considered then maybe they would want to undermine the child king's claim and may concluded, separately of course, that if it is possible they would challenge the child's legitimacy and if the father is dead who would be around to say otherwise - Mary maybe but would anyone be that interested in hearing what she had to say.

My understand was that certain factions in the Hungarian Nobility favoured János whilst others favoured Ferdinand and that their respective supporters voted each of them to be King leading to the partition of the kingdom. János asked Süleyman I for help and correct me if I am wrong but Süleyman went and installed him in Buda. With Louis son out of the way János would be sitting pretty albeit as a vassal King to the Ottomans,

With all the Machiavellian plots swirling around the child king's head who would protect him? Would his mother have enough clout, being Austrian and the granddaughter of Maximilian I Holy Roman Emperor, or would her 'foreignness' be her downfall. Would Süleyman seek to manipulate the situation for himself - he may conclude that a true heir to the throne is better than a fake that owes his position to the untrustworthy Nobility, who seem to change their minds as quickly as the British weather, and therefore not all that reliable and more importantly he could use the child as a means to check the Habsburgs. As you say the prospect of easily manipulation could be very tempting...

Well Louis had already a recognized living bastard son so that kind of allegations against him will not work. Ferdinand has no interest in taking away Bohemia and Hungary from his nephew and is unlikely who Zapolya will try it with a legitimate heir of the Jagiellons. I do not know what kind of role will have Mary in the regency but I think pretty likely seeing Ferdinand ruling Bohemia as regent for his nephew while Zapolya will have the effective ruleship of Hungary until the majority of Louis‘ son

 

[Deleted member 145893]

Well Louis had already a recognized living bastard son so that kind of allegations against him will not work. Ferdinand has no interest in taking away Bohemia and Hungary from his nephew and is unlikely who Zapolya will try it with a legitimate heir of the Jagiellons. I do not know what kind of role will have Mary in the regency but I think pretty likely seeing Ferdinand ruling Bohemia as regent for his nephew while Zapolya will have the effective ruleship of Hungary until the majority of Louis‘ son

From what I have read and I could be wrong but Louis may have acknowledged János Wass, but he did not officially declare him legitimate which is why János lived his life out in Pozsony (Bratislava). If he had though that could throw another claimant in to the mix - goodness this throne is getting more crowded than the London underground at rush hour...

If Louis had form for siring illegitimate 'children' then I'm thinking Zapolya could just as easily say - this child is just another bastard son of Louis and his supporters, who probably couldn't care less whether it was true or not, are more than happy to agree.

I agree with you about the division of the Jagiellon holdings. I can see that Ferdinand would be content with a regency in Bohemia as it would certainly be an easier route to the Hungarian Throne than having to rely on the erstwhile Hungarian Nobility. He would avoid conflict with Zapolya and he could effectively claim the kingdom for the Habsburgs (can't see them let it go once they have possession). In OTL Ferdinand was also elected King and controlled the western area of Hungary whilst Zapolya controlled the other two thirds, but would Ferdinand's acceptance of the regency in Bohemia come at the price of losing control of his Hungarian territory in which case as you have pointed out Zapolya's authority would then extend to the whole country. That arrangement would certainly benefit Süleyman as Ferdinand's de facto buffer zone would not exist putting Ottoman troops at the Habsburg's doorstep.

As I mentioned before Süleyman's support of János Zapolya could come with conditions attached for instance - János would have to ensure that Louis' son is protected. On the other hand now you've raised the prospect of a Habsburg regency in Bohemia what is there to stop Mary taking her son and fleeing to the safety of either Austria or Bohemia. Her family would be more than happy with that idea as they would have a 2-4-1 a legitimate heir to the Bohemian throne thus ensuring their complete dominance over the area and to borrow a well worn phrase "an oven ready" heir to the Hungarian throne and if they oust Zapolya, and by extension defeat the Ottomans, Hungary is ripe for the taking.

 

[The Professor]

In England only legitimate male children could inherit the throne and if there were no male heirs then the King could determine the line of succession,

The first part of that is not strictly true, as you've been advised before, and the latter part the king could do already regardless of having sons (see Edward III's entail).

Do we know what the Hungarian succession "rules" were at this time? I've assumed elective in the absence of male heirs to the previous, and where male heirs exist a more selective process among them with direct heirs being more confirmatory?