Lorenzo de Piero de Medici, duke of Urbino died on May 4 1519 - more or less alongside his wife (28 April) - of an unspecified cause (although hers may have been childbed fever).
What happens if Lorenzo were to recover? His uncle (Giuliano de Lorenzo) had died only three years before, so for Lorenzo to become the newest pawn in French interests in Italy (like the Borgias in the previous generation) doesn't seem completely impossible. Would he fare better than Cesare Borgia did, though, and manage to create a lasting state - whether Urbino or Florence or some union between the two?