WI: Longwy-Briey annexed by Germany in 1871

Simple POD, what if the resource rich area of Lorraine is annexed along the rest of the land annexed after the war, yes I know nobody knew yet of the resources but what if Germany just took it to cut France off Luxemburg? I think this small land change would have heavy consequences. What´s your opinion on that?
 
Simple POD, what if the resource rich area of Lorraine is annexed along the rest of the land annexed after the war, yes I know nobody knew yet of the resources but what if Germany just took it to cut France off Luxemburg? I think this small land change would have heavy consequences. What´s your opinion on that?
France was already cut off from Luxembourg by the OTL annexation.
 
What are the consequences of France not bordering Luxembourg?
Not much I would say, that was more an excuse for Germany annexing it. Luxemburg(even if it´s de jure a Dutch puppet) would be a German puppet even more than IOTL, if the situation is going to last longer than IOTL no bilinguism would develop and the area woudl be German/Luxemburgish speaking(French would have the same status it has in Germany or the Netherlands).

I´ve heard that the area of Briey had like 90% of French iron ore production, that would cripple France immensely, this part of Lorraine would be the French equivalent of Saarland.
 
Not much I would say, that was more an excuse for Germany annexing it. Luxemburg(even if it´s de jure a Dutch puppet) would be a German puppet even more than IOTL, if the situation is going to last longer than IOTL no bilinguism would develop and the area woudl be German/Luxemburgish speaking(French would have the same status it has in Germany or the Netherlands).

I´ve heard that the area of Briey had like 90% of French iron ore production, that would cripple France immensely, this part of Lorraine would be the French equivalent of Saarland.
Luxembourg is no more Dutch: it is independent and neutralized under the guarantee of the Powers
 
Absent the resources of that area France is truly screwed. While this area was occupied during WWI France had had the benefits of this ore for some time which meant that the cost of producing artillery, machine guns, etc was more manageable than if they had to import these ores. This means in 1914 the French military is less well equipped in some key areas than OTL so the initial German offensive could achieve its goals, capturing Paris and also probably being further down the channel coast. I doubt the French government, say it has relocated south somewhere would be able to continue with Paris gone which means most of the heavy industry is probably gone as well.
 
Absent the resources of that area France is truly screwed. While this area was occupied during WWI France had had the benefits of this ore for some time which meant that the cost of producing artillery, machine guns, etc was more manageable than if they had to import these ores. This means in 1914 the French military is less well equipped in some key areas than OTL so the initial German offensive could achieve its goals, capturing Paris and also probably being further down the channel coast. I doubt the French government, say it has relocated south somewhere would be able to continue with Paris gone which means most of the heavy industry is probably gone as well.
But what would be the point of a WW1 with a weaker France? I mean it would also butterflied, probably.
 
But what would be the point of a WW1 with a weaker France? I mean it would also butterflied, probably.

Equally crucially ... would a weaker France, with more of its resources tied up in imports, lead to a weaker Russia? A lot of Russia's industrialization and expansion was resultant from French loans - with France alone being both in a position and willing to lend it (Britain had the money, but wasn't that friendly to Russia; Germany might have wanted a friendly Russia - Wilhelm, at least did, even if he was alone in that consideration among Germany's leadership - but German resources are tied up in Germany proper and unavailable). Depending on how expensive the loss of Briey-Longwy turns out for France, they might not be able to fund Russia to the extent they did OTL - or anywhere near it, potentially.
 
Equally crucially ... would a weaker France, with more of its resources tied up in imports, lead to a weaker Russia? A lot of Russia's industrialization and expansion was resultant from French loans - with France alone being both in a position and willing to lend it (Britain had the money, but wasn't that friendly to Russia; Germany might have wanted a friendly Russia - Wilhelm, at least did, even if he was alone in that consideration among Germany's leadership - but German resources are tied up in Germany proper and unavailable). Depending on how expensive the loss of Briey-Longwy turns out for France, they might not be able to fund Russia to the extent they did OTL - or anywhere near it, potentially.

I think it might see an uptick in German GDP too. A weaker France is probably much more cautious in the post Franco-Prussian War era too, they might not be able to afford the Tunisian adventure in 1881.
 
Equally crucially ... would a weaker France, with more of its resources tied up in imports, lead to a weaker Russia? A lot of Russia's industrialization and expansion was resultant from French loans - with France alone being both in a position and willing to lend it (Britain had the money, but wasn't that friendly to Russia; Germany might have wanted a friendly Russia - Wilhelm, at least did, even if he was alone in that consideration among Germany's leadership - but German resources are tied up in Germany proper and unavailable). Depending on how expensive the loss of Briey-Longwy turns out for France, they might not be able to fund Russia to the extent they did OTL - or anywhere near it, potentially.
When did French loans started taking place and effect IOTL? So to better understand when Russia would be weaker.

To add on this would there be immediate changes? Like during the Russian-Turkish war(if it´s not butterflied)? Different colonization patterns?
 
When did French loans started taking place and effect IOTL? So to better understand when Russia would be weaker.

To add on this would there be immediate changes? Like during the Russian-Turkish war(if it´s not butterflied)? Different colonization patterns?

The loans started towards the end of the 1880s, so it wouldn't affect the Russian-Turkish war. France didn't immediately pursue an alliance with Russia following the war. Rather, they spent a few years trying rapprochement with Germany before switching to Russia as Russo-German differences mounted and France saw an opportunity to sever those ties completely. That would, IMO, still happen to some extent - Russia and Germany were growing increasingly distant, so much so that the few attempts at Royal diplomacy (directly between Wilhelm and Nicholas) were politely ignored by both nations' governments.

The first war where I could see butterflies would be the Russo-Japanese war. With less money, the trans-Siberian might be even less complete than OTL (not that the railroad was good, mind, but it was better than nothing).

France might try appeasement longer, but it is unlikely to work. If there's one constant to the period it's that German diplomacy was awful. That said, an alliance with Britain is uncertain, too - it was OTL.
 
Well that is50-100k Frenchmen, it wouldn't change much.

And many even of those might opt to move house across the new border. I understand there was a sizeable emigration from Alsace-Lorraine even OTL


Absent the resources of that area France is truly screwed.

About when would the effect start to kick in?

Istr reading that the iron fields around Briey were not yet being exploited in 1871. Not sure exactly why, but think it might have been due to some kind of impurities in the ore. Has anyone any more info on this?
 
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