WI: Lithuanian Christianization in 1358 - Teutons in the Steppe?

Okay, so here's the deal.

In 1357, Algirdas and Kęstutis, the leaders of the "diarchy" of Lithuania, went into negotiations with the Pope and Holy Roman Emperor Charles IV on accepting Christianity and ending the hundred years' war between the Western crusaders and the Lithuanians. Of course, this wasn't out of the ordinary for Lithuania - they negotiated numerous times on Christianization before, like in 1298, 1322, 1341, 1349, etc, etc... This attempt was the most serious of the bunch, though, and it appears as if Algirdas and Kęstutis were going to accept.

Of course, accept with terms and conditions, and here were their terms:

* Lithuania annexes half of the territory held by the Teutonic and Livonian Orders in the Baltic region, the one that is on it's border and was unjustly annexed by the Teutons in the Baltic Crusade. The rest of the lands would be left for god knows whom, maybe Poland would take Pomerelia, maybe there would be secular states founded in their place.

* The Teutonic Order must move to the steppe south and east of Ruthenian territory to fight against the Tatars there.

* But the Order relinquishes all rights to the Ruthenians, and "all of Rus' must belong to Lithuanians", as Algirdas stated.

There are obvious reasons why this proposal was not accepted, but what if, for some reason, it is? Maybe with an earlier POD - for example, Kęstutis wins the Battle of Strėva in 1348, Lithuania does not appear weak to the Westerners, and maybe he even launches counter-raids to prove that the Teutons won't be able to simply take over Lithuania, thus forcing them to negotiate.

Where would the Teutonic Order reestablish itself? Somewhere along the Black Sea ceast? In Crimea? Deeper inland?

What would be the impact on Eastern Europe, and especially the southeast, of a German monastic order arriving there to fight Tatars? Would they even be effective?
 
If they relocate to Crimea, we could see a shift in their ethnic composition, from German to Latin knights.
We could see a more western-focused Poland. Depending on who they ally (Hungary ? Sweden ?) it will determine if they look more to the North-West or South-West for expansion.
It could be interesting for Russia which will probably end up balkanized between a Catholic Lithuania, Muslim Mongol/Tatar khanates, some Swedish possessions and these Crusader Knights.
That place would be a hell of perpetual fighting.
 
I don't think the order could establish itself anywhere else, it may have land in Lithuanian-controlled Ruthenia, but it won't be taking the anything held by the hordes anytime soon. The Russian's won't let it happen, and more importantly, the Teutonic order couldn't control the land any way without local allies among the Tatars, so I don't see making headway anywhere. When Ivan the Terrible he took the city but basically forced the Khan of Kazan to be his vassal which wasn't too out the question since they owned their existence to Russian hospitality and the Russians were familiar with Tatar ways to some extent.

If it's by 1537 anyway Muscovy is still a rising power, so even if we don't get a "Russia" anytime soon I'd still see a Grand Principality of Muscovy as at least a regional power.
 
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