WI *Lithuania-Muscovy discovers Americas

I am currently creating a timeline where in Lithuania is inherited by the Kings of Muscovy via Sophia of Lithuania causing Lithuania and Muscovy merge, is it possible for them to expand in the Siberia and discover Americas before the Spanish or Portuguese?
 
Last edited:

Flubber

Banned
I am currently creating a timeline where in Lithuania is inherited by the Kings of Muscovy via Sophia of Lithuania causing Lithuania and Muscovy merges, is it possible for them to expand in the Siberia and discover Americas before the Spanish or Portuguese?


No.

The Portuguese are going to encounter Brazil as part of their efforts to circumnavigate Africa while Spain or some other European maritime power is going to sail westward in an attempt to negate Portugal's huge lead in exploration. Furthermore, once Portugal announces it has reached the Indies via the Cape of Good Hope, there is going to be even more interest among the other powers to reach the Indies by other routes.

There are just too many people in Europe interested in reaching the Indies and the technology necessary for attempt in various directions is too widespread. The Basque are already fishing off the Grand Banks and various other groups have been nosing around the Americas too. Absent Columbus for one reason or another, the "discovery" of America is a certainty within a decade or so of 1500 CE.

In order for Lithuania-Muscovy to reach the Americas via Siberia before a western European nation reaches the Americas via the Atlantic, you're going to have to change Europe substantially for the worse.
 
I don't think so. Going the long way around would be a nightmare due to the climate and distance, and then you'd need a port to be founded and well-established on the other side. In order for a port on the other side to be the slightest bit profitable, you'd need to go back and plow a road through the whole territory. I can't think of any event that would make that sort of venture seem profitable in the slightest.

OTL Columbus' rationale for his Indian Enterprise was miscalculating the size of the world and therefore considering it possible to get to China by ship via the Atlantic. The reason this was a profitable-seeming venture was because Constantinople had recently fallen to the Ottomans, and therefore the Silk Road was made inaccessible for Europeans. The reason nobody else wanted to go Columbus's route was because everyone else knew how big the world *actually* was and knew that trying to get to China by ship was incredibly foolish.

If *Russia needed to secure a monopoly on eastern goods, they can conquer Turkestan and get to the silk road easily enough without having to go through Siberia. I don't know of any other reason why anyone would need a port on the Pacific if they didn't know that the Americas were just beyond.
 
I am currently creating a timeline where in Lithuania is inherited by the Kings of Muscovy via Sophia of Lithuania causing Lithuania and Muscovy merge, is it possible for them to expand in the Siberia and discover Americas before the Spanish or Portuguese?

They can't exactly discover America right away, but with Lithuania and Russia unified into one state, they may be able to gain control of Livonia. Ivangorod Prosperous doesn't necessarily say that Russia discovers America first, but it does explain about an earlier Russian maritime presence.
 

Flubber

Banned
I don't think so. Going the long way around would be a nightmare due to the climate and distance...


Google the term "great circle route" and learn why distances between various points on a sphere vary greatly according to which path you take. After all, there's a very good reason why Europe searched for a Northwest and Northeast passage up through the 1800s.

... , and then you'd need a port to be founded and well-established on the other side.

The Europeans already know there are ports on the "other side" of the spice "equation" because they've been trading with them via numerous middlemen since at least the days of Rome.

In order for a port on the other side to be the slightest bit profitable, you'd need to go back and plow a road through the whole territory. I can't think of any event that would make that sort of venture seem profitable in the slightest.

First, ships don't need "roads", they can generally reach whatever ports they want, and no one imagined that the Americas would create a land barrier reaching nearly from pole to pole.

Second, the Spanish did create such a road across Panama to transship goods from the Manila galleons to the western treasure fleets. The failed Scots colony at Darien was planted with controlling such a road firmly in mind.

OTL Columbus' rationale for his Indian Enterprise was miscalculating the size of the world...

That bullshit grammar school version of Columbus' sales pitch has been pretty much refuted for several decades now. Columbus wasn't an innumerate idiot, navigators of the period with his experience could not be that mathematically challenged. If Columbus miscalculated anything it was the size of Asia, he expected it to extend much further east.

Columbus expected to find island chains in the west he could then follow to Asia. The various whispers concerning Basque fishing grounds, Norse explorations, and other early voyages gave Columbus all the evidence he needed. What he didn't expect to find was the barrier of the Americas and what his successors didn't expect to find the vastness of the Pacific. Nothing about world geography known to Europe at the time could have predicted that.

The reason this was a profitable-seeming venture was because Constantinople had recently fallen to the Ottomans, and therefore the Silk Road was made inaccessible for Europeans.

I never knew that.

The reason nobody else wanted to go Columbus's route was because everyone else knew how big the world *actually* was and knew that trying to get to China by ship was incredibly foolish.

First, no one was heading for China. They were headed for the Spice Islands.

Second, no one was heading for the Spice Islands nonstop. The Portuguese were setting up a chain of resupply stations down the coast of Africa in order to round the Cape of Good Hope and Columbus was planning on doing the same among the islands he knew he'd find west across the Atlantic.

Suggesting that Columbus thought he was going to sail to China nonstop ignores the facts that China wasn't the goal, that Columbus wasn't a complete idiot, and that the people backing him weren't complete idiots either.
 
Alternatively, you could have Olgerd/Algirdas (or whomever he is) conquer the Rus' lands in 1362. This may have butterflied Jogaila's kingship, or a different kind of Lithuanian prince would have actually nipped the bud of Muscovy's power. Or Vytautas could survive and become Muscovy's king while struggling against Jogaila.
 
Alternatively, you could have Olgerd/Algirdas (or whomever he is) conquer the Rus' lands in 1362. This may have butterflied Jogaila's kingship, or a different kind of Lithuanian prince would have actually nipped the bud of Muscovy's power. Or Vytautas could survive and become Muscovy's king while struggling against Jogaila.

Actually, having Ivan of Muscovy, the grandson of Vytautas inherit the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and win against the Jagellonian faction is also possible, I think this is more possible than having Vytauas become the Prince of Muscovy.
 
Google the term "great circle route" and learn why distances between various points on a sphere vary greatly according to which path you take. After all, there's a very good reason why Europe searched for a Northwest and Northeast passage up through the 1800s.
A few problems with this:
1: It's frozen wasteland
2: It's still a pretty long ways
3: You'll notice that the NW and NE passages weren't navigated until the early 20th century.
4: Why didn't Columbus take advantage of any great circle routes?

The Europeans already know there are ports on the "other side" of the spice "equation" because they've been trading with them via numerous middlemen since at least the days of Rome.
You'll notice the thread is about *Lithuania-Russia discovering the New World, and OP specifically used the route through Siberia to get there. I was replying on that point.

First, ships don't need "roads", they can generally reach whatever ports they want, and no one imagined that the Americas would create a land barrier reaching nearly from pole to pole.
Think for a minute. A port on Kamchatka or wherever wouldn't have any advantage against the ports that are already established unless it was the starting point of a land route to Europe. Such a route would have a marginal advantage at best, but that's beside the point.

That bullshit grammar school version of Columbus' sales pitch has been pretty much refuted for several decades now. Columbus wasn't an innumerate idiot, navigators of the period with his experience could not be that mathematically challenged. If Columbus miscalculated anything it was the size of Asia, he expected it to extend much further east.
The size of the earth was not precisely known because there was confusion regarding units of measurement and so on. Columbus did underestimate the size of the earth

First, no one was heading for China. They were headed for the Spice Islands.

Second, no one was heading for the Spice Islands nonstop. The Portuguese were setting up a chain of resupply stations down the coast of Africa in order to round the Cape of Good Hope and Columbus was planning on doing the same among the islands he knew he'd find west across the Atlantic.

Suggesting that Columbus thought he was going to sail to China nonstop ignores the facts that China wasn't the goal, that Columbus wasn't a complete idiot, and that the people backing him weren't complete idiots either.

Semantics. I used "China" as shorthand for those islands etc. because that's the story people are most used to hearing. I assumed that on a site such as this people would know better; obviously I was right.
 
I can't see how you can do it by going East in this period - its not a blank slate, you have substantial powers like the Khanate of Kazan in the way, and even if swallowing them all, you have then to hold them whilst at the same time trying to get enough people to want to colonise areas where only nomadic tribes are wandering. Thus the argument about it not working by going East is pretty much valid in this time period - even combined Litua-Rus would not have the strength to win that many wars, and hold down that many peoples, not to mention that if it tried, everyone to its West and South would say THANKS and attack it.

Now its NOT impossible for them to get an enterprise together to decide to go WEST, a la Columbus. The Hanse is trading at this time and its expertise could be bought in for shipping - after all Columbus himself was importing expertise into Spain's adventuring, so there's no reason why this Northern union could not import its own in.

The problem would be one of motivation and of paying people enough to agree to sale Westwards at this period, when the most they KNOW they will find is some islands that the Vikings once went to

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Going east:
Longer way
More obstacles (Khanates etc.)
Harsher terrain (yes the sea can be bad, but Siberia is freaking Siberia).
So the answer is no.
 
Actually, having Ivan of Muscovy, the grandson of Vytautas inherit the Grand Duchy of Lithuania and win against the Jagellonian faction is also possible, I think this is more possible than having Vytauas become the Prince of Muscovy.

Possibly, but there might have to be an event that butterflies the formation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, like an early death for Jogaila, therefore depriving Jadwiga a potential husband and depriving Poland of a candidate for their throne by default.
 
Possibly, but there might have to be an event that butterflies the formation of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, like an early death for Jogaila, therefore depriving Jadwiga a potential husband and depriving Poland of a candidate for their throne by default.

Why not just have Jadwiga widowed by Jogaila instead causing the Lithuanian crown to pass to another person?
 

Flubber

Banned
A few problems with this:
1: It's frozen wasteland...

Which no one knew until they went there.

2: It's still a pretty long ways
It's still shorter if it can be navigated.

3: You'll notice that the NW and NE passages weren't navigated until the early 20th century.
Hindsight. We're talking about attempts, not successes. They didn't know they couldn't do it until they tried and failed.

4: Why didn't Columbus take advantage of any great circle routes?
He was taking advantage of known trade winds and knew islands - not Asia - existed to the west along that latitude. You, like too many others, are unconsciously assuming 20th/21st Century propulsion and navigational abilities. Prior to maritime steam engines, known dependable wind patterns like the trades were absolutely vital. Prior to the ability to fix longitude, long distance oceanic travel consisted of picking a latitude and sailing along it until you reached another known point.

East/west voyages which crossed multiple longitudes were made along known latitudinal routes. North/south voyages along the same longitude then used landmarks and simple latitudinal fixes. You'd sail north/south until reaching a point with dependable wind patterns, then sail east/west using those winds along the same latitude. Columbus sailed south to the Canaries where known "easterlies" could take him west across the Atlantic then, after briefly exploring parts of the Caribbean, sailed north to a point where known "westerlies" could take him east back home. This wind pattern was one of Portugal's many discoveries and they called it the "turn of the sea".

You'll notice the thread is about *Lithuania-Russia discovering the New World, and OP specifically used the route through Siberia to get there. I was replying on that point.
You'll notice I was replying to your errors regarding Columbus' voyages and the prospect for similar voyages without Columbus.

A port on Kamchatka or wherever wouldn't have any advantage against the ports that are already established unless it was the starting point of a land route to Europe.
And, oddly enough, when Russia reached the Far East overland through Siberia the first thing they did was set up ports. Ever wonder why?

Unlike you, I didn't assume the OP was stupid enough to think that Lithuania-Muscovy would attempt to recreate the Silk Road in the face of the various potentially hostile powers existing in Central Asia. Instead and as was done in the OTL by Russia, Lithunia-Muscovy would traverse Siberia until reaching the Pacific and then begin exploring sea routes back to Europe from that point. Which, of course, is what men like Bering spent their careers doing.

The size of the earth was not precisely known because there was confusion regarding units of measurement and so on. Columbus did underestimate the size of the earth.
Bullshit. The size of the Earth had been known since the Classical Era and Columbus overestimated the size of Asia. He used confusion over measurement systems as part of his sales pitch for funding; i.e. "it could be as short as this because Asia is as large as that..."
 
Last edited:
Prior to maritime steam engines, known dependable wind patterns like the trades were absolutely vital. Prior to the ability to fix longitude, long distance oceanic travel consisted of picking a latitude and sailing along it until you reached another known point.

East/west voyages which crossed multiple longitudes were made along known latitudinal routes. North/south voyages along the same longitude then used landmarks and simple latitudinal fixes. You'd sail north/south until reaching a point with dependable wind patterns, then sail east/west using those winds along the same latitude. Columbus sailed south to the Canaries where known "easterlies" could take him west across the Atlantic then, after briefly exploring parts of the Caribbean, sailed north to a point where known "westerlies" could take him east back home. This wind pattern was one of Portugal's many discoveries and they called it the "turn of the sea".

Yes, I knew more or less that was how it was done, and when I brought it up I was trying to make some kind of point. If only I could remember what it was:eek:.

And, oddly enough, when Russia reached the Far East overland through Siberia the first thing they did was set up ports. Ever wonder why?

Unlike you, I didn't assume the OP was stupid enough to think that Lithuania-Muscovy would attempt to recreate the Silk Road in the face of the various potentially hostile powers existing in Central Asia. Instead and as was done in the OTL by Russia, Lithunia-Muscovy would traverse Siberia until reaching the Pacific and then begin exploring sea routes back to Europe from that point. Which, of course, is what men like Bering spent their careers doing.
See, here is where I disagree. Not on the routes back to Europe point, but on the implicit point that they would try going further East to get back to Europe. If ports were set up by *Russian travelers before they knew of the New World's existence and some of them ended up sighting land in the Americas, they would have just been like the Basque fishermen; the powers that be in Kiev or Moscow or Vilnius or wherever wouldn't have spent their time and money chasing what for all they knew were a few small islands. Besides that, the wind patterns on the Pacific weren't as well-known as the ones on the Atlantic. Now, the earlier presence on the Pacific could conceivably be used as a springboard for a later expedition, but IMO the OP's POD doesn't allow for enough time for them to be first discoverers. At best, they might have discovered it independently in the early 16th century before Columbus's discovery became well-known.

Also, going back to something you said:

That bullshit grammar school version of Columbus' sales pitch has been pretty much refuted for several decades now. Columbus wasn't an innumerate idiot, navigators of the period with his experience could not be that mathematically challenged. If Columbus miscalculated anything it was the size of Asia, he expected it to extend much further east.

I've been poking around and most of the sources I find say that Columbus miscalculated the size of the earth because he mistook an Arabic mile for an Italian mile. If you have any sources that contradict that I'd like if you could point me in their direction.
 

Flubber

Banned
I've been poking around and most of the sources I find say that Columbus miscalculated the size of the earth because he mistook an Arabic mile for an Italian mile. If you have any sources that contradict that I'd like if you could point me in their direction.


Columbus was familiar with the classical geographical works of Marinus of Tyre thanks to Columbus' extensive correspondence with a Florentine astronomer and mathematician named Toscanelli.

Marinus had estimated that the eastern edge of Asia was at roughly 225 degrees disagreeing with Ptolemy's estimate of 180 degrees and the real figure of 135 degrees. Using Marinus' estimate as a starting point, Toscanelli also argued that Japan, whose existence Marco Polo was the first European to report, was further from China and closer to the equator than assumed. Topping it all off, Marinus then roped in all the western island rumors, whispers about Basque fishing grounds, scant records of Norse voyages, and the rare occurrences of strange wreckage, trees, and plants washing up on Iberian shores to postulate islands even further east of Japan.

All in all, Toscanelli had been arguing for decades that islands laying east of Japan were within roughly 4K km of the Canaries and Columbus believed him. So, instead of attempting the route around Africa, a route the Portuguese had yet to complete and a route the Portuguese defended with forts and patrols, Columbus successfully sold Spain on the idea of using an island hopping route across the western ocean to first Japan, then China, and then the Spice Islands.

Scanning my shelves, you should find Noble's The Mysterious History of Columbus: An Exploration of the Man, the Myth, the Legacy, Davidson's Columbus Then and Now, and Sale's The Conquest of Paradise all interesting. You should also ignore Washington Irving's idiotic 1820's biography and any work which uses that book as a source.
 
Also, would an earlier Siberian exploration have any implications on the famous Stroganov merchant family, as well as sighting China a lot earlier?
 
Top