WI: Lithuania declares war on Poland in Sep 1939

At the time, according to the M-R Pact, Lithuania was in the German sphere of influence, and Germany tried to persuade the Lithuanian government to attack Poland along with the Wehrmacht in September, but it refused.

If Lithuania, hoping to regain the Vilnius region, agreed and attacked Poland on September 1st in 1939, how would this Third Polish-Lithuanian War play out?

For reference, the armed forces of Lithuania at the time had about 20 000 personnel, 3 cavalry brigades, 9 infantry brigades, 3 artillery brigades, a light armored company and a moderately sized air force for reconnaissance.

And what would be the effect on the war afterwards?
 
This is an interesting scenario, as if they did go ahead with the Germans, Britain and France might have to DOW on them.
And of course leads to a sticky situation once the Russians move on Estonia and Latvia.
 
The agreement was quickly altered to include Lithuania in the Soviet sphere once the USSR invaded Poland. USSR would attack Poland and not soon after force Lithuania to retreat and be annexed.
 

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For reference, the armed forces of Lithuania at the time had about 20 000 personnel...

That is the strength of the Lithuanian peace-time standing army; the Lithuanians could mobilise up to 250,000 reserves in the event of a crisis, with mobilisation expected to be completed in 72 hours. Lithuania’s war plans called for 5 full strength infantry divisions, plus an additional two independent cavalry brigades.

During the Vilnius Crisis of March 1938, the Lithuanian Army had plans prepared for an initial rapid mobilisation of 120,000 reserves had the government decided to resist the Polish ultimatum. Faced with no international support, and the added threat of military intervention by Germany in support of Poland, the government chose to capitulate and the army did not mobilise any reserves, but clearly in the event of conflict, the Lithuanian armed forces would have been rapidly and enormously expanded.
 
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That is the strength of the Lithuanian peace-time standing army; the Lithuanians could mobilise up to 250,000 reserves in the event of a crisis, with mobilisation expected to be completed in 72 hours. Lithuania’s war plans called for 4 full strength infantry divisions, plus an additional two independent brigades.

During the Vilnius Crisis of March 1938, the Lithuanian Army had plans prepared for an initial rapid mobilisation of 120,000 reserves had the government decided to resist the Polish ultimatum. Faced with no international support, and the added threat of military intervention by Germany in support of Poland, the government chose to capitulate and the army did not mobilise any reserves, but clearly in the event of conflict, the Lithuanian armed forces would have been rapidly and enormously expanded.
Yes, there were plans for a mobilization of this scale, but if I remember, at the time the Lithuanian reserve only had munitions and weapons for about 50 000 troops.

If necessary, though, the Šauliai (Riflemen Union, basically a voluntary paramilitary) would be mobilized to the Armed forces, adding another 60 000 military trained members to the Army, though their equipment would, obviously, not be on par to the regular units.
 
A German/Lithuanian alliance could lead to an interesting situation as the war progresses. Lithuania probably could manage to avoid being annexed by the Soviets, at least initially. Having Lithuania in the Axis camp could also change the battles Army Group North though I can't speculate on the most likely outcome. One interesting knock on effect would be regarding Lithuania's Jewish population. Though Lithuanian society had deep antisemitic undercurrents, Smetona's government saw Poles and Germans as more threatening and so downplayed antisemitism. If Smetona can stay in charge, the Holocaust in Lithuania might be far less severe than OTL especially if Sugihara continues to issue exit visas for Polish refugees (though likely demand for these would be lower in TTL).

Restraining the more radical elements of the Lithuanian right will be difficult, but if Smetona can pull it off he might be able ensure Lithuania survives the war relatively intact. Perhaps Smetona sees the writing on the wall and decides to switch sides ala Romania and Bulgaria. Long term I don't think this changes too much, but it does provide the basis for a stronger Lithuanian nationalism following the collapse of the Soviet Union and a more pronounced Lithuanian Jewish cultural impact following WWII.
 
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The agreement was quickly altered to include Lithuania in the Soviet sphere once the USSR invaded Poland. USSR would attack Poland and not soon after force Lithuania to retreat and be annexed.

thought they rewrote agreement AFTER Lithuania had turned down an offer to join in? and they had made faster advance east than (possibly) expected?

doubtful they would be turned over to Soviets after joining invasion, probably similar situation to Slovakia (of course not too many benefits to being loyal ally to Nazi regime.)
 
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