WI: Lithuania converts to Orthodoxy?

Now, I did my IB History IA on this subject, so I know the unlikely hood of Jogaila converting to Eastern, rather than Western, Christianity.

But still. Say some butterflies happen and Jogaila converts to Orthodoxy, rather than marrying into Poland's nobility, becoming Catholic, and forming the Poland-Lithuanian Union.

What happens then?

I think first and foremost is the obvious lack of a Polish-Lithuanian superpower in the East.

Perhaps the Russians will gain a valuable ally in the Lithuanians against the Tartars and the like? In fact, how will Lithuania act in the affairs of the warring republics and principalities in Russia now?

How will Lithuania be treated by the Crusading orders? How will the Teutons and the Livonians act towards an Orthodox giant on their borders?
 
Now, I did my IB History IA on this subject, so I know the unlikely hood of Jogaila converting to Eastern, rather than Western, Christianity.

But still. Say some butterflies happen and Jogaila converts to Orthodoxy, rather than marrying into Poland's nobility, becoming Catholic, and forming the Poland-Lithuanian Union.

What happens then?

I think first and foremost is the obvious lack of a Polish-Lithuanian superpower in the East.

Perhaps the Russians will gain a valuable ally in the Lithuanians against the Tartars and the like? In fact, how will Lithuania act in the affairs of the warring republics and principalities in Russia now?

How will Lithuania be treated by the Crusading orders? How will the Teutons and the Livonians act towards an Orthodox giant on their borders?

If Orthodox Lithuanians manage to keep Poles, Teutons, Tatars and Danes/Swedes at bay, they could eventually expand into the rest of orthodox lands of old Rus`(they already conquered about 80% of that by that time). Of course in such scenario tiny Lithuanian ruling class will loose their Lithuanian identity rather quickly, and political centre of such state will move to Moscow, Kiev, or somewhere else. So in other words - it will be new Rus(sia), and no longer Lithuania.

Otherwise, such state will fare worse than OTL. Only apparent ally, Muscovy, would rather rival Lithuania than cooperate IMO, so it will be isolated.
 
An orthodox Lithuania would probably seen as fair game for the crusading orders since though they are Christian, they are not Roman Catholic but what do I know? They might hesitate attacking the Lithuanians.
 
Perhaps the Russians will gain a valuable ally in the Lithuanians against the Tartars and the like? In fact, how will Lithuania act in the affairs of the warring republics and principalities in Russia now?
Don't overestimate integrity of these guys. :)
Jogaila had no problem allying with with Tatars against Moscow and with Teutonic Order against his own uncle. Other guys in the region made lots of unholy alliances, too - only to be broken soon.
How will Lithuania be treated by the Crusading orders? How will the Teutons and the Livonians act towards an Orthodox giant on their borders?
On several occasions, papal legates mediated between Crusaders and Lithuania. Without their help/interference, fighting could be more frequent and intense. Of course, Crusaders would have freer hands, too.

To put it short - it would be much the same bellum omnium contra omnes, just fiercer on the western borders.

I think first and foremost is the obvious lack of a Polish-Lithuanian superpower in the East.

Most probably, Polish elite would have no choice but to restore ties with Hungary. Now, how about Polish-Hungarian superpower?
 
A Polish-Hungarian superpower could have implications for the budding Ottoman Empire, along with the Austrians.

Perhaps it will stop the Ottoman advance North? Force them to go more South into deeper Africa, or west along the Mediterranean coast line, or even East deep into Asia? Or hell, North maybe, through the Caucasus?

Maybe it'll keep the Austrians from ever getting as powerful as they did OTL, with a large, powerful neighbor on their Eastern border?

This could also have reverberations throughout the HRE, even.
 
A Polish-Hungarian superpower could have implications for the budding Ottoman Empire, along with the Austrians.

Perhaps it will stop the Ottoman advance North? Force them to go more South into deeper Africa, or west along the Mediterranean coast line, or even East deep into Asia? Or hell, North maybe, through the Caucasus?

Maybe it'll keep the Austrians from ever getting as powerful as they did OTL, with a large, powerful neighbor on their Eastern border?

This could also have reverberations throughout the HRE, even.

Poland-Hungary would mean that Austria ends up tied down to the HRE more than anyone else, if it's not absorbed into Poland-Hungary (which may well move its capitol into the area of Czechoslovakia). It would work to keep the Ottomans out of Europe past Greece. Perhaps we end up with an Ottoman expansion into the western Mediterranean. Ottoman Sicily anyone?

Now, being optimistic for Poland-Hungary, they can acquire land on the Adriatic coast, build a fleet, and take the Ottoman's territories in North Africa away, leading to a Polish-Hungarian Empire...
 
Most probably, Polish elite would have no choice but to restore ties with Hungary. Now, how about Polish-Hungarian superpower?

But wasn't Jadwiga chosen as the monarch instead of Mary exactly because the Poles didn't want to keep their ties with Hungary? In this scenario were Jogailla isn't available, wouldn't they simply support any other candidate to be her husband? And who could be this noble?
 
But wasn't Jadwiga chosen as the monarch instead of Mary exactly because the Poles didn't want to keep their ties with Hungary? In this scenario were Jogailla isn't available, wouldn't they simply support any other candidate to be her husband? And who could be this noble?
Absolutely true, sir.

But what if Jadviga isn't available? Then Polish nobility haven't much to offer to Lithuania and have to stick with Hungary.

Jogaila converting to Orthodoxy then becomes natural course of events.

Jadviga dying in infancy could a viable PoD for the premise of this thread.
 
A Polish-Hungarian superpower could have implications for the budding Ottoman Empire, along with the Austrians.

Perhaps it will stop the Ottoman advance North? Force them to go more South into deeper Africa, or west along the Mediterranean coast line, or even East deep into Asia? Or hell, North maybe, through the Caucasus?

Maybe it'll keep the Austrians from ever getting as powerful as they did OTL, with a large, powerful neighbor on their Eastern border?

This could also have reverberations throughout the HRE, even.
Austrians? What Austrians? Do you refer to that small ethnographic group wearing strange costumes to attract tourists? :D

As for the Caucasus, nobody goes through it until 19th century. That's a matter of logistics and transportation technology. One can pass by the Caspian coast, but still, to my knowledge, no power held territory on both sides for more than few decades.

I'm no expert in Ottoman history to tell what would have happened in other directions. I'm even unsure if 1389 Battle of Kosovo could be affected.
 
I think you need a POD further back. But if they do they are fair game for Teutons who see their reason for existance gain a new breath of life. As was said once Lithuanians converted Teutons couldn't attack them at will, despite their attempts to do so. Baltic crusading lives on. There still was an enthusiasm for it, though deminished. If Teutonsmanage to harvest it and direct it toward Lithuania they may survive longer, even in their original form (Ordensstaat). Teuton state still has support and is not lft to its own devices like OTL post-Tannenberg.
 
As for the Caucasus, nobody goes through it until 19th century. That's a matter of logistics and transportation technology. One can pass by the Caspian coast, but still, to my knowledge, no power held territory on both sides for more than few decades.

I agree to an extent... what we could have instead is that the Ottomans expand out of the Crimea and absorb their vassals the Crimean Khanate and other entities such as the Golden Horde. They are themselves Muslim and the Ottomans could pose as an Empire willing to protect their integrity against the Orthodox christians encroaching on their territories.... in the far flung future I doubt this territory if held by the Ottomans would be as keen to break away like the Balkans and if it does we have a Tartar state :D
 
Absolutely true, sir.

But what if Jadviga isn't available? Then Polish nobility haven't much to offer to Lithuania and have to stick with Hungary.

Jogaila converting to Orthodoxy then becomes natural course of events.

Jadviga dying in infancy could a viable PoD for the premise of this thread.

Interesting enough, at the time Jadviga's sister Mary was married to Sigismund of Luxembourg, Holy Roman Emperor and Margrave of Brandenburg. So, we would have also a personal union of Brandenburg and Poland that could last even if Poland and Hungary are split later.
 
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