WI : List takes Baku

I just found a sketch of idea burried for some time in my archives;though the idea must have been often discussed, I've not seen it for a while and this finding in my archives makes me curious again.

1942
During Autumn, German Army Group A under General List conquers North Caucasus and reaches Caspian Sea, then crosses Caucasus into Azerbaijan through the heavily defended Caspian Gates (near Derbent) and takes Baku oil fields.
He prepares for the next year to clean Soviet pockets in southern Caucasus, but in Iran, an British-American expeditionnary corps is gathered to relieve the Soviet forces in Azerbaijan (including the Iranian part).
North of Caucasus, the capture of Baku Oil fields coincide with the launch of Soviet counter-offensive in the Don-Volga area, which is fought by Army Group B under von Weichs.
I guess the pod must involve the panzers not diverted from Army Group A, or at least in a time frame not disadventaging List.
I'm under no illusions that these oilfields would be of any use since the retreating Soviets would have methodically sabotaged them, neither that it would in the long run alter the war's outcome, but the alternate developments are interesting.
First, the South Caucasus campaign which would see British and American forces from Iran to engage more actively into support of cut off Soviets, at a time when Rommel just got defeated at El Alamein and Allies landed in North Africa on his back.
Second, under the pod, we would have Army Group B under von Weichs in better position to fight Zhukov counter-offensive.
 
Read an article recently that went in to the issues of Germany gaining from taking Russian oil fields. The short answer is they simply did not have the personnel or equipment to get the fields back in to production in less than a year or two, and transporting the oil to Germany or Romania (where it could be refined) in useful quantities was simply not doable. Not enough rail cars or tankers to move it, and building new pipelines simply impossible under the circumstances. The Soviets did a good job of trashing such fields as were overrun and Baku would have been more of the same. More useful would have been using those resources to cut the links (rail and river) between the oilfields and the rest of the USSR, thus denying the fiels to the USSR and giving them a real problem in getting enough petroleum. This allows Germany to stick it in the eye of the USSR, cripple future offensives, and also not give such a weak and broad front for counter attacks.
 
Read an article recently that went in to the issues of Germany gaining from taking Russian oil fields. The short answer is they simply did not have the personnel or equipment to get the fields back in to production in less than a year or two, and transporting the oil to Germany or Romania (where it could be refined) in useful quantities was simply not doable. Not enough rail cars or tankers to move it, and building new pipelines simply impossible under the circumstances. The Soviets did a good job of trashing such fields as were overrun and Baku would have been more of the same. More useful would have been using those resources to cut the links (rail and river) between the oilfields and the rest of the USSR, thus denying the fiels to the USSR and giving them a real problem in getting enough petroleum. This allows Germany to stick it in the eye of the USSR, cripple future offensives, and also not give such a weak and broad front for counter attacks.
However Germany did need that oil, you are making a great point but the Germans needed that especially when the Allies bombed Romania
 
The whole Case Blue thing was strange. Hitler grasped that it was important that Germany had sources of oil, and that the Caucasus fields were the major fields closest to German forces, but he doesn't seem to have thought things through much beyond that.

Given both the distance involved and the problems with getting any captured oil fields back in production -which they really should have grasped after their experience in getting the Russian railnet functional again- plus the ridiculous ethnic stew in the area which you would think a racially obsessed regime should have understood, any plans to take the Caucasus fields in 1942 should have been a complete non-starter.

However, a Blau where the Germans cut the Volga and render the Caucasus fairly useless for the Soviet war effort actually made some sense. Isn't this what Bock favored? Then with a crippled Soviet Union, the Germans try to take the oilfields themselves in 1943, with the Allies in a weak position to try to do something about it. The British planned to get forces there if it came to this, but they had little to spare themselves and Stalin may not have let them.
 
If the Germans cut the flow of oil to the USSR this, at a minimum puts any Soviet counteroffensives back and at a maximum allows them to force an armistice on the USSR although probably somewhere shirt of the Urals. In any case putting the front line well east of where it was OTL in 1942/43, and reducing the pressure on the Germans from Soviet forces means that the threats to the Romanian oil fields and refineries is much reduced. The reality is that the effort per "unit" of oil the Germans could hope to recover usefully from the Caucasus in 12-24 months would be better put in to improving production in fields they fully control and increasing synthetic oil. Even under the most optimistic projections the combination of repairing the wells, repairing the transport net, and finding the physical resources to move the oil to Germany. The Germans never planned adequately to deal with their resource/manpower limitations. Denying the oil to the Soviets and using that advantage to "win" is the best use of resources, at that point they can take over and exploit the oil fields at leisure (and without risking the technicians).
 
What's the situation for Soviet forces cut off in South Caucasus?
Pending a continuation of the German offensive from Baku into Azerbaijan, the Soviets still control the region, and withoout Baku, their supply lines must go through northern Iran. Could Stalin accept that Western Allies send in troops to reinforce Red Army and defend the region?
Given that Rommel just failed in Egypt, Hitler could come up with some fantasy plan to invade Middle East from Caucasus.
 
In the last Caucasus threat I mentioned a German plan for airborne landings which I read in Liddell Hart's History of the Second World War. IIRC it was on the Black Sea side to capture the mountain passes, coast road and costal railway. If they had made the landings and they had been 100% successful would that have given the Germans time to capture the oilfields before the Soviets could destroy them?

He also said that the Soviet Black Sea Fleet prevented the Germans from supplying their army in the Caucasus by sea. If the airborne landing only enabled the Germans to occupy the Black Sea coast and force the Soviet fleet into internment in Turkey would the ability to supply their Caucasus army by sea have helped the Germans significantly? I presume it depends upon the capacity of the ports at either end and how many ships were available.
 
how would/could Axis capture Transcaucasian Federation of Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan? could not/did not fight their way there IOTL, even an "undivided" Case Blue seems unlikely to reach Baku?

"what if" they set Baku as prime objective of Army Group South? either way, capture it for their own use or deny the oil to the Soviets? not IMPOSSIBLE to eliminate the Soviet Black Sea fleet? could have moved 2 -3 dozen small u-boats, fast attack boats, and a large number of MFPs/AFPs (built in Romania and Bulgaria.)

have a railway and pipeline from Batumi to Baku, that's what they need to capture. also need at least clandestine support from Turkey and/or Iran (which in this scenario is somewhat shielded from USSR.)
 

Ian_W

Banned
have a railway and pipeline from Batumi to Baku, that's what they need to capture. also need at least clandestine support from Turkey and/or Iran (which in this scenario is somewhat shielded from USSR.)

And then they use the oil tankers they dont have to move it from Baku to either the river system, to use the spare oil barges they dont have, or onto railheads, where they can use the spare oil tank cars they dont have.
 
As the German strategy looks, the capture of Baku would be more aimed at using the oilfields to supply German war effort, but that's an irrealistic objective since Soviets would methodically destroy any facility to deny their use to the Nazis, and for irrealistic it is, it remains consistent with Hitler many irrealistic strategies and aims.
As for destroying the Soviet Black sea fleet, it would require to capture Poti and Batumi, but since it didn't figure among List top targets in late 1942, it could come later, though it depends on whether the Black Sea Fleet stays a significant player in the game. I imagine pursuing south into Iran would be for Hitler a more tempting strategy though it doesn't exclude a side offensive against Georgia (that's not the first time he overreach the Wehrmacht capacity by assigning too many targets at once).
 
I just found a sketch of idea burried for some time in my archives;though the idea must have been often discussed, I've not seen it for a while and this finding in my archives makes me curious again.


I guess the pod must involve the panzers not diverted from Army Group A, or at least in a time frame not disadventaging List.
I'm under no illusions that these oilfields would be of any use since the retreating Soviets would have methodically sabotaged them, neither that it would in the long run alter the war's outcome, but the alternate developments are interesting.
First, the South Caucasus campaign which would see British and American forces from Iran to engage more actively into support of cut off Soviets, at a time when Rommel just got defeated at El Alamein and Allies landed in North Africa on his back.
Second, under the pod, we would have Army Group B under von Weichs in better position to fight Zhukov counter-offensive.

One thing to keep in mind is that the Baku fields were developed in (roughly) 2-3 distinct phases; originally, late in the Nineteenth Century, again during the First World War, and then again in the Soviet industrialization period in the 1930s, with a mix of technologies and techniques and equipment. Some were Soviet Era, some were Imperial Era, some second-hand from the west ... Quite the hodge podge, with a lot of legacy equipment, presumably some of it not particularly well maintained over several decades, and presumably the oldest rigs, pipelines, pumps, etc long out of production.

It's not a matter of taking control and flipping a switch to return a field (upstream) to production; as has been demonstrated repeatedly in recent history, the well field is the easy part (in a relative sense) of putting out the fires and restoring the well heads; it is the "downstream" elements (pipelines, tank farms, and especially refineries) that can be truly challenging to repair, replace, and return to service.

And the reality that the Caspian Sea fields were a mixed bag of technologies to begin with, and the Germans, even if they manage to gain control of them, are still in a war zone and (presumably) fighting an active campaign to the north, south, and east of the Caspian, and the operational issues simply become more challenging.

And while the Germans had a very robust chemical industry, they were not the leaders in petrochemicals in terms of oil field development, etc.; the leaders in that sector were the Americans, British, and Dutch.
 
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"what if" they set Baku as prime objective of Army Group South? either way, capture it for their own use or deny the oil to the Soviets?

have a railway and pipeline from Batumi to Baku, that's what they need to capture.

And then they use the oil tankers they dont have to move it from Baku to either the river system, to use the spare oil barges they dont have, or onto railheads, where they can use the spare oil tank cars they dont have.

if they could have reached Baku it would entirely change the invasion of USSR.

Axis operated 100s of converted commercial ships or ones they constructed in captured Soviet yards, if they did not have to contend with Soviet Black Sea fleet some of that effort could have gone to remedy the deficiencies you highlighted.
 

Ian_W

Banned
if they could have reached Baku it would entirely change the invasion of USSR.

Axis operated 100s of converted commercial ships or ones they constructed in captured Soviet yards, if they did not have to contend with Soviet Black Sea fleet some of that effort could have gone to remedy the deficiencies you highlighted.

What is it about 'what ifs' that favour the Nazis makes people utterly ignore logistics and the need to spend years building systems up ?

Is the Heer's studied contempt for logistics crossed with the Nazi emphasis on 'triumph of the will' over mere material factors ?

If the Germans want more oil transport capacity to be usable in 1942-3, they need to start working on it in 1939-40.
 

Minty_Fresh

Banned
The German issue was always supplying their offensives beyond the railheads that ended at Smolensk in the front centre and were drastically reduced in quantity and quality past Kiev in the South.

But as for this issue, cutting the Volga makes any Soviet force to the South incredibly vulnerable. The troops there were not of good quality, and without support from the North, they would be mincemeat in the case of a well supplied German Army turning south on them.

Getting the oil from Baku to the refineries in Romania of course is a big problem, and the facilities in Baku would be in range of British bombers from the Middle East.

Taking Astrakhan would be logistically a death knell for Soviet forces in the South. The Germans being able to get there however would require PODs beyond the scale of this scenario.
 
What is it about 'what ifs' that favour the Nazis makes people utterly ignore logistics and the need to spend years building systems up ?

If the Germans want more oil transport capacity to be usable in 1942-3, they need to start working on it in 1939-40.

first of all I'm not sure capturing Transcaucasia WOULD favor Axis or be possible, just better than fighting their way there overland. secondly any such scenario WOULD have to move a substantial fleet of landing craft and/or use converted commercial ships.

moving oil via MFPs/AFPs and ferries would constitute a pitiable "oil transport capacity" but still in all better than the zero barrels transported from USSR historically.
 
The assumption here is that the Nazis could capture Baku. Under OTL 1942 conditions... but that just isn't happening. The distances are too great, the logistical assets too inadequate, the terrain too terrible, and the Soviets too tough.
 
first of all I'm not sure capturing Transcaucasia WOULD favor Axis or be possible, just better than fighting their way there overland. secondly any such scenario WOULD have to move a substantial fleet of landing craft and/or use converted commercial ships.

moving oil via MFPs/AFPs and ferries would constitute a pitiable "oil transport capacity" but still in all better than the zero barrels transported from USSR historically.

Depends on how many barrels are burned getting there, taking the fields, sustaining the defenders and construction forces, sustain the forces fighting to the north, east, and south, and - by the way - transporting whatever can be produced and simply isn't used on scene somewhere else.
 

Ian_W

Banned
first of all I'm not sure capturing Transcaucasia WOULD favor Axis or be possible, just better than fighting their way there overland. secondly any such scenario WOULD have to move a substantial fleet of landing craft and/or use converted commercial ships.

moving oil via MFPs/AFPs and ferries would constitute a pitiable "oil transport capacity" but still in all better than the zero barrels transported from USSR historically.

Its more hilarious than that.

It gets transported by water, and then it cant be moved anywhere, because all the German oil infrastructure is already moving all the oil Rumania can produce.

These are people who are hilariously bad at long-term planning.

http://www.joelhayward.org/Hitlers-Quest-Finished.pdf

Page 121 has the gruesome details. Note von Hanneken's warning that, even if the oil is captured it cant be got back to Germany, was delivered in March 1941.
 
As others have said - Baku as an objective for the Germans to capture it was totally unrealistic. I would go for an oil objectives of Maykop and Terek, achieved, while reinforcing the East Black Sea coast - part carrying on south, and part going east for the oil-fields. And from Rostov while OTL one part went south (and the other ENE to Stalingrad). I would carry on going east to dominate/capture Astrakhan. This will have a major impact on oil getting to the Soviets, and IMHO is more achievable rather than charging south.
 
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