WI Lincoln survives the assassination in April 1865?

Like the title implies, what would happen if Lincoln survives the assassination on the evening of April 14th, 1865? What if he actually fears for his life and brings several armed bodyguards with him? Or if John Wilkes Booth trips and falls while trying to sneak up behind Lincoln and get shot by Lincoln's bodyguards? What would happen next? (I'm sorry if there are *ahem* MANY threads like this out there, I'm just curious!)
 
Reconstruction a great success.

No Jim Crow laws, so all black males get the vote. That'll screw the Southern Democrats for about a century.

Much better civil rights for blacks predating the 1960s by 100 years.

A very strong America military wise. No one better mess with the USA!

Lincoln stays in office until his death some 12 years later. He breaks the two term hoodoo by lasting 5 terms (although dies early in his fifth term).

Lawrence Chamberlin, Lincoln's VP for his 5th term, becomes US President. He follows on in Lincoln's legacy.
 
Black Abraham could have survived the assassination with massive brain trauma also. He would have been rendered a vegetable, or maybe with limited capabilities. More than likely any head wounds would have rendered him incapable of doing his job and probably brought Johnson into office.

I would have to consider any 'rosey forecast for reconstruction' to have been entirely dependent on if Lincoln could have controlled the Radical Republicans within his own party. I doubt he will serve more than two.
 
David S Poepoe said:
Black Abraham could have survived the assassination with massive brain trauma also. He would have been rendered a vegetable, or maybe with limited capabilities. More than likely any head wounds would have rendered him incapable of doing his job and probably brought Johnson into office.

I would have to consider any 'rosey forecast for reconstruction' to have been entirely dependent on if Lincoln could have controlled the Radical Republicans within his own party. I doubt he will serve more than two.


Had Lincoln survived the assassination, without any physical mishap whatsoever (in the manner of the AH originally described), there is no reason why he couldn't have lasted at least a further 12 years. Simliarly, there's no reason at all why he couldn't have kept going, for that period of time, as President.

Great things would have been done during such a long Lincoln Presidency. And it's not as if it isn't without precedence considering what FDR did well within 100 years of Lincoln's Administration.
 

Xen

Banned
First off the easiest way for Lincoln to survive the assassination is for him not to dismiss the Union soldier assigned to guard his booth. Perhaps Lincoln has a dream that he will be shot during the play and tells the guard to keep his eyes open. Upon seeing the Union guard, Boothe looses his nerve or jumps the gun, so to speak, and shoots the guard at an inappropriate moment. The entire theater hears the gun shot, the Union general sitting in the booth with Lincoln storms out of the Presidential booth and wrestles with the would be assassin, he would either be killed by Boothe or seriously wounded. Either way he buys Lincoln time, and other patrons of the Theater are able to restrain Boothe before he could harm the President.

Secondly David Poepoe is correct, unless Lincoln was going to be a radical Republican along with his party, then there would be some conflict between the President and Congress, with many radical Republicans calling for Lincoln's impeachment, and like OTL it would probably be on a ridiculous charge. How this one will play out is beyond me, perhaps with Lincoln being a Republican instead of a Democrat more people in the Republican Congress side with him than with Johnson, or maybe the Democrats ally with the Republicans to toss Lincoln out of office and bring Johnson in. One thing to take into account though, Lincoln would probably have the support of the American population which could end up saving his neck in the end.

What Lincoln does during reconstruction is anybodys guess, but only if he avoids impeachment. Also folks keep in mind at this time there was some confusion over how much power the Congress had and how much power the President had, many political experts of the time thought during the impeachment of Johnson that Congress would become the greatest power of the United States, making the Speaker of the House a sort of a Prime Minister and the President a mere figurehead.
 
Assuming that Lincoln survives without being seriously wounded, I think that he would continue along the course that he was already following. This course was less punitive toward the south than what many of the Radical Republicans wanted, but it was stronger than what Andrew Johnson ended up advocating. Toward the end of his life Lincoln was supportive of full citizenship rights and the vote for African-Americans - if southern states quickly institute "Jim Crow" type laws and many northern states are reluctant to treat blacks as citizens, he would probably end up supporting the 14th and 15th amendments to prevent the states from disenfranchising part of their population. At the same time, he would generally favor a quick restoration of the southern states into the Union and full citizenship for all former Confederates except perhaps for a few of the most prominent or those who tried to use violence and intimidation against former slaves.

Some of the more radical Republicans are still going to think that Lincoln is too "soft", but I think that impeachment would be more difficult in the case of Lincoln than Johnson. First of all, for all the vilification that he got during the war, Lincoln would have great prestige once the war was concluded successfully. Second, his policies wouldn't be as favorable to former Confederates and unfavorable toward ex-slaves as Johnson's were. Third, in the extremely unlikely event that Lincoln was impeached and convicted on some charge or another, his replacement would be .. Andrew Johnson - hardly what the Radicals would want!

One problem though is that Lincoln might not have lived much longer on his own. He is believed to have had an unusual genetic condition (can't remember what it's called). One of the results of this condition is that a person tends to grow abnormally long limbs, which was indeed true of Lincoln, who is said to have found it very uncomfortable to sit in ordinary chairs and preferred to sprawl out on a couch or even put his long legs up on a desk. Another consequence of this condition, though, is heart weaknesses that often result in cardiac arrest as the person gets older. In other words, Lincoln was probably very lucky to have lived as long as he did, with all of the stress that he did, without having his heart fail. There is a good chance that he would have died of natural causes in the next year or two. Of course, this is not guaranteed.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
Another aspect to consider is the effect Lincoln's survival would have had on the economic development of America. Lincoln himself greatly distrusted big business and, at times, made statements almost akin to socialism (Turtledove made this a theme of How Few Remain).

Considering the rapid industrialization of America in the decades after the war, perhaps Lincoln might have attempted to institute policies to alleviate the negative impact on the woring class. In other words, perhaps the Progressive Movement would have gotten started earlier than it did in OTL.
 
Paul is making a reference to Marfan Syndrome, which Lincoln is believed to have been afflicted with.

I think its likely (much like Churchill) that Lincoln would win the war but lose in peace. He's not going to have carte blanch power in Washington and he may become increasingly at loggerheads with Congress. He might be considered a saint now, but that usually happens with the crown of martyrdom.

What one has to consider is if he goes light on the former Rebel states what is going to happen when the first Congressional elections don't go either the way the Republicans want them to or ex-Confederate representatives are elected and the Congress refuses to seat them? This is what happened historically. Reconstruction was also a way that the Northern states planned to completely eviscerate the South politically so that it could not block national programs.
 
So you're all saying Lincoln might die in 1866 or beyond; in the 12-year period (1865-1877)? Also, DMA, why would Lincoln run for the third, fourth, and fifth term? I think he would've followed the tradition started by George Washington and leave the White House in 1869 (Providing he survives, that is). Also, could you provide a timeline preceding the period of Lincoln surviving the assassination in 1865? Just asking.
 
Shimernaru Dojo said:
So you're all saying Lincoln might die in 1866 or beyond; in the 12-year period (1865-1877)? Also, DMA, why would Lincoln run for the third, fourth, and fifth term? I think he would've followed the tradition started by George Washington and leave the White House in 1869 (Providing he survives, that is). Also, could you provide a timeline preceding the period of Lincoln surviving the assassination in 1865? Just asking.


The main reason why I'm suggesting that he'd stay in office is to ensure that the job of Reconstruction got done the right way. Similarly I'd dare say he just didn't fight a civil war, & in doing so let the slaves free, just to sit back & see them enslaved again thanks to the Jim Crow laws. As a result, if you want important changes to the OTL, Linclon will probably have to remain in office for at least 10-12 year period.

Also it's not as if Linclon was a traditionalist. In many ways he's the first modern President. So, although things like what George Washington did or didn't do may have been important, if the job required for him to stay on, considering America found itself in unchartered waters unlike the period of Washington's Presidency, then I'd say that Lincoln will stay in office for as long as possible. If he doesn't well although Johnson's Administration (1865-69) is likely missed, you'll end up with Grant's.

I knew he had his health problems, hence I only gave him 12 more years to live. I'd say that would be a fair enough estimate & would only make him 68 when he would die instead of him being 56.
 
DMA said:
The main reason why I'm suggesting that he'd stay in office is to ensure that the job of Reconstruction got done the right way. Similarly I'd dare say he just didn't fight a civil war, & in doing so let the slaves free, just to sit back & see them enslaved again thanks to the Jim Crow laws. As a result, if you want important changes to the OTL, Linclon will probably have to remain in office for at least 10-12 year period.

Also it's not as if Linclon was a traditionalist. In many ways he's the first modern President. So, although things like what George Washington did or didn't do may have been important, if the job required for him to stay on, considering America found itself in unchartered waters unlike the period of Washington's Presidency, then I'd say that Lincoln will stay in office for as long as possible. If he doesn't well although Johnson's Administration (1865-69) is likely missed, you'll end up with Grant's.

I knew he had his health problems, hence I only gave him 12 more years to live. I'd say that would be a fair enough estimate & would only make him 68 when he would die instead of him being 56.
I see Lincoln only serving two terms, but then getting his handpicked successor elected after him.
 
Wendell said:
I see Lincoln only serving two terms, but then getting his handpicked successor elected after him.


Well I agree about the hand picked successor, where I have that person being Lawrence Chamberlin, but I would say that Lincoln would be the type of man to see the job through however long it may take. And in the aftermath of the ACW, that means staying in office ensuring that Reconstruction is successful (maybe not 100%, but say 75%) & that civil rights for Black Americans be meaningful, rather than have the Southern States ensure that it wasn't akin to the OTL. That means more than two terms. Hence I'm saying he'll die in office after serving at least 4.
 
DMA said:
Well I agree about the hand picked successor, where I have that person being Lawrence Chamberlin, but I would say that Lincoln would be the type of man to see the job through however long it may take. And in the aftermath of the ACW, that means staying in office ensuring that Reconstruction is successful (maybe not 100%, but say 75%) & that civil rights for Black Americans be meaningful, rather than have the Southern States ensure that it wasn't akin to the OTL. That means more than two terms. Hence I'm saying he'll die in office after serving at least 4.

I don't think a president can remain popular enough to serve more than three terms without some outside crisis, like FDR and the Second World War. At some point during a second term they usually start to wear out their welcome. I don't see Lincoln being any different. Much like the 1912 election I think by the end of his second term the Republican Party may split between Lincoln's possible 'Socialist' Branch and the Radical Republicans. The party is split and a Democrat takes office.
 
David S Poepoe said:
I don't think a president can remain popular enough to serve more than three terms without some outside crisis, like FDR and the Second World War. At some point during a second term they usually start to wear out their welcome. I don't see Lincoln being any different. Much like the 1912 election I think by the end of his second term the Republican Party may split between Lincoln's possible 'Socialist' Branch and the Radical Republicans. The party is split and a Democrat takes office.


Well a couple of things - Lincoln has already done much of the hard work in regards to changing American society. Afterall he fought & won the Civil War, freed the slaves, and supported Constitutional Amendments over such things. To me, it seems, the hard part is over. All Lincoln has to do is ensure Reconstruction is reasonably successful & that the South doesn't erode away the civil rights of the freed slaves.

Now considering what happened under Johnson's disgraceful Presidency, & the problems with Grant's Administration, I can't see latter Lincoln terms being anywhere near as bad. It certainly couldn't be worse! As a result, sure there'll be strains under latter Lincoln Administrations, but I can't see the outcomes being any worse than the OTL years. Furthermore, don't forget Lincoln was prepared to fight a Civil War rather than back down. I'd like to think the Radical Republicans will know who they're dealing with. Besides, Lincoln can always simply banish them to the Confederacy, oppsss I mean the occupied Southern states who haven't got representation in Congress ;)

More importantly, I don't think Lincoln is the kind of man who, after doing all the hard work, will then walk away knowing more has to be done. I get the impression from him, especially at the end of the ACW, that he would work hard to see what could be done for the South, in order to ensure a "more perfect Union".
 
Remember most of what are called "Jim Crow" laws were passed after 1876, most in the 1890's, as the 2nd generation reaction. **

Also remember Lincoln got his start as a corperate lawyer for the nasenct Railroad Octopus.

While some of the Details may have been different, I believe that when the NAACP brings the Ferguson *** railroad case in the late 1890's, Jim Crow will still be accepted by the Supremes.

** Four Generation Rule of Social change

*** TTL's analogue
 
DuQuense said:
Remember most of what are called "Jim Crow" laws were passed after 1876, most in the 1890's, as the 2nd generation reaction. **

Also remember Lincoln got his start as a corperate lawyer for the nasenct Railroad Octopus.

While some of the Details may have been different, I believe that when the NAACP brings the Ferguson *** railroad case in the late 1890's, Jim Crow will still be accepted by the Supremes.

** Four Generation Rule of Social change

*** TTL's analogue


This is why Chamberlin follows Lincoln as President in about 1877 ;) Hopefully he can hang around until 1884.

Needless to say, with two such leaders holding the Presidency for such a long period of time, hopefully there'll be enough Federal legislation that will ensure stuff like the Jim Crow laws won't have any validity when challenged.
 
DMA said:
Now considering what happened under Johnson's disgraceful Presidency, & the problems with Grant's Administration, I can't see latter Lincoln terms being anywhere near as bad. It certainly couldn't be worse! As a result, sure there'll be strains under latter Lincoln Administrations, but I can't see the outcomes being any worse than the OTL years. Furthermore, don't forget Lincoln was prepared to fight a Civil War rather than back down. I'd like to think the Radical Republicans will know who they're dealing with. Besides, Lincoln can always simply banish them to the Confederacy, oppsss I mean the occupied Southern states who haven't got representation in Congress ;)

More importantly, I don't think Lincoln is the kind of man who, after doing all the hard work, will then walk away knowing more has to be done. I get the impression from him, especially at the end of the ACW, that he would work hard to see what could be done for the South, in order to ensure a "more perfect Union".

First off you are mistaken about the 'occupied Southern states who haven't got representation in Congress'. The Military occupation and division into districts is a hallmark of the Radical Republicans, most likely not a program that Lincoln will follow. Also I think Grant's Administration is being given a second look at these days and it appears that it was much better than we give it credit for. The scandal with the Credit Mobilier fairly blots out everything else he did.

Also at the heart of it the 'Jim Crow' laws of the South were modeled on similar ones already present in the North and at the very beginning were adopted as ways to deal with transient blacks.

Frankly, Lincoln completely disrupted the balance between Federal and State Power. Thank goodness for John Wilkes Booth.
 
David S Poepoe said:
First off you are mistaken about the 'occupied Southern states who haven't got representation in Congress'.


I was making a joke


David S Poepoe said:
The Military occupation and division into districts is a hallmark of the Radical Republicans, most likely not a program that Lincoln will follow. Also I think Grant's Administration is being given a second look at these days and it appears that it was much better than we give it credit for. The scandal with the Credit Mobilier fairly blots out everything else he did.


Actually I don't have much of a problem with Grant as President. It's his underlings which are the problem. Grant, though, could have been more pro-active all thing considered.


David S Poepoe said:
Also at the heart of it the 'Jim Crow' laws of the South were modeled on similar ones already present in the North and at the very beginning were adopted as ways to deal with transient blacks.


Yet the Northern laws weren't to strip rights per se, but to stop the migration as you've pointed out yourself. The Southern ones, however, were to deliberately strip the locals of their rights.


David S Poepoe said:
Frankly, Lincoln completely disrupted the balance between Federal and State Power. Thank goodness for John Wilkes Booth.


Actually the Civil War did this, not really Lincoln. John Wilkes Booth was a hack of an actor. So the only way he got himself remembered at all was by killing a great American. Otherwise he wouldn't have even rated as a footnote in the History of American Theatre.
 
I think one should also look at the election of 1864 to also see how likely a Lincoln third term would be. McClellan carried 45% of the vote, just 10% less of Lincoln's 55%. So Lincoln isn't quite a show in if the Democrats run a better candidate. Also Lincoln and the Union Army actively suppressed Democratic Party rallys thru out the states of the Old Northwest Territory and were sure that Republican troops were rotated out of the frontlines in order to vote. Such tactics wouldn't be permitted in peace time.

Grant-R carried 53% of the vote to Seymour's-D 47% in 1868. Don't forget how the Election of 1876 was immensely close.
 
David S Poepoe said:
I think one should also look at the election of 1864 to also see how likely a Lincoln third term would be. McClellan carried 45% of the vote, just 10% less of Lincoln's 55%. So Lincoln isn't quite a show in if the Democrats run a better candidate. Also Lincoln and the Union Army actively suppressed Democratic Party rallys thru out the states of the Old Northwest Territory and were sure that Republican troops were rotated out of the frontlines in order to vote. Such tactics wouldn't be permitted in peace time.

Grant-R carried 53% of the vote to Seymour's-D 47% in 1868. Don't forget how the Election of 1876 was immensely close.


Nevertheless you got a very long OTL list of Republican Administrations, other than Johnson's accidential happenstance, from Lincoln up until Cleveland takes office in 1885. That's a long momentum which would be hard to change. Afterall, the Democrats do have the problem of being labelled the party of secession (however that may have been wrong) during this post-ACW period. That, in itself, works against the Democrats.
 
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