WI: Lincoln Presidency Without Secession Crisis and Civil War

???Why on earth would Virginia agree to West Virginia seceding?

You understand that Kentucky was never a territory, but instead was a legal and integral part of Virginia until Virginia finally allowed it to become a state? Same Maine as part of Massachusetts, and to a lesser extent Vermont was dejure a part of NY (complete with counties and sheriffs appointed by NY). States have agreed to have other states formed before.

Often, as was the case antebellum Virginia, the problem was economic. Future West Virginia didn't provide much in the way of resources (coal wasn't known to be there yet), or population, or revenue of any kind where as providing law and order and other state functions to that area was a burden on the tidewater and piedmont areas. Not to mention future West Virginia (like Kentucky before) constantly was petitioning Virginia and Congress for separate statehood. This is embarressing to Virginia. It was only a matter of time

And to the person who said Missouri would abolish slavery on it's own has never obviously been to Missouri today (outside of St Louis or KC at least). Slavery wasn't about economics or having slaves. It was about control of a race and racism. No way ever was Missouri going to abolish slavery. Ever. Sad to say that there entire counties where they would vote to reinstate slavery given the chance and those counties take up more land than the progress counties. And before I'm accused of beating up on Missouri- I live here and my family has since before the US bought it from the French.
 
That no such majority existed was irrelevant - to paranoid Southerners, all Northerners were suspect. At the 1860 Democratic convention, Southerners called the Douglas faction abolitionists merely for advocating "popular sovereignty" in the Territories.


It's weird really.

If they'd stopped to think, they'd have realised that, witht he territorial question out of the way, the North had no reason to seek an end of slavery.

Its abolition would have two principal effects. It would entitle the South to an additional dozen or more Congressmen and electoral votes, while as "free persons", the former slaves would be free to move to the North if they chose. Most white Northerners wouldn't have seen either as desirable. They might be willing to help individual runaways - esp if these were "just passing through" on the way to Canada, rather than intending to stay locally - but any mass migration would have ben a horse of a very different colour. In short, but for the quarrel over the territories, emancipation was hardly more in the interest of the North than of the South.

But rational thought seems to have just gone out of the window.
 
Lincoln's primary objectives would likely be:

Admission of Kansas into the Union as a free state. IOTL, this was done in January 1861, but only because the southern delegates opposing it had left. Likely, this will be accomplished, but at a later time and probably requiring some kind of concession to the South in another area.

Passage of the Homstead Act. This was passed in 1862 IOTL. Again, this was opposed by the South because slaveowners did not want yeoman farmers out west. They wanted land to be used in large plantations. They feared both losing their own whites that would settle out west, and new free states. Might be possible in the second half on his term if Lincoln can win Southern moderates - either Democrats like Andrew Johnson hostile to the slaveocracy or newly minted Southern Republicans from old Whigs in the Upper South who win in the 1862 Congressional elections.

Funding the Transcontinental Railroad. IOTL, this was accomplished by the Pacific Railroad Acts of 1862 and 1864. Most likely this can be achieved, but the southerners will need to be pacified by giving them a southern pacific railroad in order to win support for Lincoln's other agenda items.

Restricting slavery from any new territories. Of all the acts, this will be the hardest to accomplish in Congress. Most likely Lincoln will use a variety of measures to slowly restrict this until the Republicans can win sufficient control of Congress.

Outside of these legislative measures, Lincoln likely concentrates on establishing a Republican Party in the south through patronage jobs and wooing southern Whigs in the Border States and Upper South. Without secession, the Republicans can probably organize a local party and begin winning local elections in Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia by 1862.

None of those states voted for Lincoln in the 1860 Presidential election. His votes were as follows:
MO - 17,028 or 10.3%
KY - 1.364 or 0.9%
MD - 2,294 or 2.5%
DE - 3,822 or 23.7%
VA - 1,887 or 1.1%

There is also the possibility of building some party in Tennessee, Arkansas, and Arkansas. No ballots were cast for Lincoln in this state, but probably a small party competitive in regional elections has a chance to grow. Perhaps local office in the mountainous areas with low levels of slavery, and perhaps even state representatives or even the odd Congressman, but probably not in 1862.

No real party will be able to grow in the Deep South, although we will see the beginning of votes there. But there is no chance of holding any elective office.

The southern Republicans will be on the party's moderate faction, but members will need to support its anti-slavery platform which will cause social upheaval in the south. Slowly, being against slavery will become socially acceptable.

Assuming the Republicans can build some kind of competitive party in the south, it can silence its critics that it is a "sectional" party. Lincoln needs the Republicans to win elections in the Border States and Upper South. I think he can do that in the Border States that voted in Constitutional Unionists. It'll be much tougher in Virginia and Tennessee, but there is potential in the Appalachian region.

The real question is what happens to the Democratic Party. Do they continue to have trouble at party unity? Most likely so, but that will make it easier for Lincoln to work in Congress, but shouldn't affect the local elections. Nevertheless, Lincoln needs a good result in the 1862 elections if his presidency to be a success.

The tenure of the time was against two term Presidents. Whether Lincoln wins depends on the Democrats splitting again. But he proved in 1860 that he can win the electoral votes with the North alone, and he might be able to pick up Missouri and Kentucky plus Kansas if it is admitted. That assumes Lincoln is kept as the nominee. More radical Republicans might want to replace him - another reason Lincoln needs to establish a southern Republican faction that is more moderate.
 
Lincoln's primary objectives would likely be:

Admission of Kansas into the Union as a free state. IOTL, this was done in January 1861, but only because the southern delegates opposing it had left. Likely, this will be accomplished, but at a later time and probably requiring some kind of concession to the South in another area.

Iirc the vote to admit Kansas was big enough for it to have passed even had the Lower South Senators still been in their seats.

They might possibly have tried to get New Mexico admitted as a slave state, which I gather Lincoln wasn't too concerned about as long as slavery extension went no further. He probably knew enough about NM to guess that it would soon become free even if admitted with a handful of salves.

Passage of the Homstead Act. This was passed in 1862 IOTL. Again, this was opposed by the South because slaveowners did not want yeoman farmers out west. They wanted land to be used in large plantations. They feared both losing their own whites that would settle out west, and new free states. Might be possible in the second half on his term if Lincoln can win Southern moderates - either Democrats like Andrew Johnson hostile to the slaveocracy or newly minted Southern Republicans from old Whigs in the Upper South who win in the 1862 Congressional elections.

Such a bill had already passed in 1860. It was vetoed by President Buchanan, but iirc the Senate came within three votes of overriding the veto. Under Lincoln it will pass with no trouble at all.

Restricting slavery from any new territories. Of all the acts, this will be the hardest to accomplish in Congress. Most likely Lincoln will use a variety of measures to slowly restrict this until the Republicans can win sufficient control of Congress.

Outside of these legislative measures, Lincoln likely concentrates on establishing a Republican Party in the south through patronage jobs and wooing southern Whigs in the Border States and Upper South. Without secession, the Republicans can probably organize a local party and begin winning local elections in Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia by 1862.

Largely academic once Kansas is admitted. There's nowhere else even remotely likely as a slave state.
 
Outside of these legislative measures, Lincoln likely concentrates on establishing a Republican Party in the south through patronage jobs and wooing southern Whigs in the Border States and Upper South. Without secession, the Republicans can probably organize a local party and begin winning local elections in Missouri, Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware, and Virginia by 1862...

No real party will be able to grow in the Deep South...

Louisiana seems like a possibility; it had strong Whig tradition and the largest "commercial" sector in the South.

Assuming the Republicans can build some kind of competitive party in the south, it can silence its critics that it is a "sectional" party.

In the Cooper Union speech, Lincoln predicted that "you will probably soon find that we have ceased to be sectional, for we shall get votes in your section this very year [1860]."

...Lincoln needs a good result in the 1862 elections if his presidency to be a success.

The 1862 returns will be a tug-of war between off-year reaction against the party in the White House, and reapportionment favoring the free states, and in some cases Republican areas in free states (such as Illinois). That's in the North; in the South the remnants of the Whig Party will continue to oppose the Democrats; and if the secession crisis has ebbed, the Whig successors may have something of a comeback.

The tenure of the time was against two term Presidents. Whether Lincoln wins depends on the Democrats splitting again.

And on his running again; he might not choose to do so. It also depends on how successful Lincoln is in using Federal patronage to build up the muscle of the Republican Party.
 
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