WI: Lincoln dies in 1856

Let's say that in 1856, Lincoln catches a cold, and the cold becomes a pnemounia and kills him, without Lincoln's leadership, how does this change the Civil War, Civil Rights, and the overall future of America?


Douglas probaly get's elected in 1860, or Buchanan goes for Re Election, I must say


(And Yes I know this could cause Butterlies and stuff like that)
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Lincoln's death won't be enough to keep the Democrats from breaking down. You'd need to go back further to prevent that from happening. Seward probably gets the Republican nomination and goes on to win the White House in 1860, which means he'll be president during the ACW that starts when the South tries to bolt.
 
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William Seward becomes the first Republican President.Secessionists react the same way they did with Lincoln. The actual conduct of the war, probably starts to change after First Manassas. It's possible that Seward botches the Trent Affair, and the Brits decide to actively side with the CSA, although that is a low-probability event. He was known to be more anti-British than Lincoln was.
 
Another Question,


Do The Chances of Confederate victory and indepdendence go up without Lincoln at the helm of the Union? wheater it be Seward or not that takes his place?
 
Do The Chances of Confederate victory and indepdendence go up without Lincoln at the helm of the Union? wheater it be Seward or not that takes his place?
Well, I'd imagine that the radicals - and probably Seward as well - would be zealous enough to hang on through the war. The only question in my mind would be whether they'd be smart enough to appoint the right generals (such as Grant and Sherman) in time to win the election of 1864. That, I'm not sure about. Thoughts, anyone?
 
Another Question,


Do The Chances of Confederate victory and indepdendence go up without Lincoln at the helm of the Union? wheater it be Seward or not that takes his place?

Hard to say. Seward would have made different military and political choices than Lincoln. He might have stuck with McClellan longer and probably would have been less pragmatic with the slavery issue before 1863. It's possible the South might have done a bit better, perhaps weakening Seward's chances for reelection. He certainly lacked Lincoln's talent for soaring rhetoric, and possibly lacked Lincoln's political abilities. Now if the CSA had picked a better President than Davis, they might improve their slight chances at independence.
 
Hard to say. Seward would have made different military and political choices than Lincoln. He might have stuck with McClellan longer and probably would have been less pragmatic with the slavery issue before 1863. It's possible the South might have done a bit better, perhaps weakening Seward's chances for reelection. He certainly lacked Lincoln's talent for soaring rhetoric, and possibly lacked Lincoln's political abilities. Now if the CSA had picked a better President than Davis, they might improve their slight chances at independence.


Davis was a horrible politcian, good Military Man, but a Horrible Politician


What if they elected Robert E. Lee as President? or Stonewall Jackson, or what the heck even John Tyler (he was elected to the Confederate Congress afterall)
 
Davis was a horrible politcian, good Military Man, but a Horrible Politician


What if they elected Robert E. Lee as President? or Stonewall Jackson, or what the heck even John Tyler (he was elected to the Confederate Congress afterall)

Stonewall Jackson would make an even worse politician than Davis. He was an inflexible military man, even more so than Davis. There's also the fact that he only rose to prominence during the war, being little more than a small landowner with some military experience pre-war.

Lee is more plausible, but he would only leave the Union after Virginia seceded; IIRC, Davis was picked as President-in-waiting well before Fort Sumter. He would not resign his military commission to join a rebellion he had no stake in. He would join the South only when Virginia joined it.
 
Stonewall Jackson would make an even worse politician than Davis. He was an inflexible military man, even more so than Davis. There's also the fact that he only rose to prominence during the war, being little more than a small landowner with some military experience pre-war.

Lee is more plausible, but he would only leave the Union after Virginia seceded; IIRC, Davis was picked as President-in-waiting well before Fort Sumter. He would not resign his military commission to join a rebellion he had no stake in. He would join the South only when Virginia joined it.



let's say Virginia seceeds first instead of South Carolina, does Robert E. Lee become president then?



and what about John Tyler as Confederate President?
 
OP - Without Lincoln Seward is the Republican nominee and the president elected in 1860. No easily conceivable way to arrange a Republican defeat in '60 unless their is a split generated by Fremont;s ego, It is hard to say how Seward would handle the various crisis but it is probable that in every case he would have been less supple than Lincoln. This means a greater risk that the Trent affair explodes or that he is less adroit at keeping KY and MD in the union. As for other posts - ASB. Virginia was never going to seceed until 'forced out' by Northern agression. SC was always going to be the leader of the pack.
 
What are you not getting about the Butterfly Effect :confused:

Why on earth would Virginia secede first? Why would Lee of all people be president?Probably not. He's too associated with the enemy.



I don't know about Virginia, we agree that Davis was not the best person to be President, Of course you would have change history to make Virginia secede first, of course I understand the Butterfly Effect,



and well Tyler was elected to the Confederate Congress, then he was still associated with the enemy, so what would be the problem with electing him President?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
and well Tyler was elected to the Confederate Congress, then he was still associated with the enemy, so what would be the problem with electing him President?
There's a difference between serving as a Representative and serving as Commander-in-Chief in a war where you used to lead the other side.

Basically, Tyler can't be trusted to prosecute the war to its fullest extent because he still might have sympathies for the Union.
 
There's a difference between serving as a Representative and serving as Commander-in-Chief in a war where you used to lead the other side.

Basically, Tyler can't be trusted to prosecute the war to its fullest extent because he still might have sympathies for the Union.



Good Point, Tyler could not be trusted, so eliminate Jefferson Davis, Stonewall Jackson and Robert E. Lee as Confederate president's who gets the Presidency? Davis's OTL VP Alexander Stephens?
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
Stephens, Toombs, Wigfall, Hunter or Seddon? which one would be the best for chances of Confederate independence?
They were all crazy and unqualified in their own rights. You have to give us more details like which states seceded? Why? When?

And if its the same CSA as OTL's, it will take more than replacing one man to make them win.
 
They were all crazy and unqualified in their own rights. You have to give us more details like which states seceded? Why? When?

And if its the same CSA as OTL's, it will take more than replacing one man to make them win.



well let's say in this Timeline the Confederacy got Missouri and Kentucky plus OTL Confederacy, thanks to not having Lincoln to intervene,
 
well let's say in this Timeline the Confederacy got Missouri and Kentucky plus OTL Confederacy, thanks to not having Lincoln to intervene,

There being no Lincoln will not, in and of itself result in KY & MO totally embracing the rebel cause and fully joining confederacy.
 
There being no Lincoln will not, in and of itself result in KY & MO totally embracing the rebel cause and fully joining confederacy.



Yes your right about that, no Guarantee that the Confederacy will fully get KY and MO, but Lincoln was a key part in keeping KY and MO in the Union, espessicly Kentucky, so I see the chances of them joining the Confederacy increased to about 75% wo/Lincoln as president
 
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