WI Lincoln beat Douglas for Senate seat 1858

In otl the legislative election which was effectively the race for the US senate seat was close, arguably Lincoln won more of the popular vote.

Now what if Lincoln had been elected a Senator. Does he still become candidate for President 1860.

I am guessing that Douglas looks a lot less like a credible candidate if he had lost that election.

How much difference does it make to events in 1860 and beyond
 
Well, you could make a case for all kinds of things in this one.

Argueably this could avoid the Democratic split regardless if Lincoln runs or not as well.
 
Senators were not actually elected by popular vote at this point. For Lincoln to win in 1858 he would need either some Democrats within the Illinois state government to switch over and select him over Douglas (unlikely given the strong party system that held sway at that time) or he would need a better showing for the Republicans during the preceding state elections (1856 and 1857). This may be possible if something occurs within Illinois that plays to the Republicans' advantage. A cross border raid by slave catchers from Kentucky or Missouri that leads to the death of a white person or two would do the trick.

Once this occurs and Lincoln becomes Senator than the possibilities are wide open. I strongly doubt that Lincoln would be nominated for the Presidency so soon after becoming Senator. This would probably throw the nomination to Seward.

Douglas would be weakened politically but not out of the picture. The Democrats would still split as the rift caused by slavery was already so severe that there was no way for the Northern Democrats to reconcile with the Southern Democrats (especially if weakened in a once strongly Democratic state due to a botched slave catcher raid). The Northern Democrats would probably put up another doughface candidate or accomidationist like Seymour or Vallandigham. Either way the Dems would fail even worse in the North. Seward had long since distanced himself from the Know Nothings and would do even batter amongst the immigrants of New York and Chicago.

Lincoln would almost certainly be offered a Cabinet seat (Attorney General is my first bet) and its even money whether he accepts or stays in the Senate to lead the war effort. Either way Lincoln would almost certainly become a leading voice in the "Save the Union first and then deal with slavery" bloc within Congress. He would be a powerful but well respected opponent to the Radicals. It is very likely that come 1864, if political/military events are similar to our own, he may be picked as a new VP to balance the Republican/Union Party ticket. It is then very likely that by 1868 he is in the position to win the Presidency in his own right. (If your a fan of parallel AH in the way that HT is than it is possible that Seward is assassinated while Lincoln thrashes the man who comes to stab him. In that case Lincoln becomes Pres. following Seward's death and brings about a much more successful Reconstruction.)

I hope this helps.
Benjamin
 
Agree 100% Has there ever been a "President Seward" TL?

Well, I don't know about any that are based on him becoming President, but there are plenty of timelines where he does become president. The Union Forever by MacGregor is one, and my own timeline A Long and Flowing Whig he does as well.
 
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