WI: Liberal Democrats get Single Transferable Vote (STV) Referendum in 2011

What would happen if the Liberal Democrats get a larger share of the vote in 2010, and are able to negotiate from a stronger position so they get Single Transferable Vote (STV) put to a referendum rather than the OTL Alternative Vote (AV) referendum?

Do the results differ at all? Is turnout higher?
 
They are not going to get it. The Conservatives could agree to an AV referendum because, first, they knew it was unlikely to prevail (both the FPTP defenders and "PR or nothing!" types would oppose it) and second, even if it did, it would not kill their chances of getting a majority Government--indeed, according to some sources, the Conservatives would have gotten a *bigger* majority in 2015 with AV. http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/blog/system-crisis

But STV or any other form of PR would virtually kill the Conservatives' chances of forming a majority Government in the future--hardly ever has a party received a majority of the total popular vote in modern times. They would rather risk a second election in 2010 than agree to a referendum that could lead to that. In fact, that has historically been the trouble with getting any form of PR adopted in the UK--both the Conservatives and Labour, in case of a hung Parliament, would rather risk losing a new election than to foreclose the chance of their ever forming a majority Government again.
 
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shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Basically what David said; Tories won't agree to it because it would put them at a disadvantage, whilst AV at least gave them a chance.

At the end of the day, unless the Tories were the minority Partner (which is near ASB), or were forced to confront the fact and agree that Britain needed electoral reform, it won't happen.

There's also the issue that the LibDem's were pretty much pushing their luck in 2010 and achieved their ceiling, or at least close to it. Maybe a one or two more percentage points, but anything more and we've entered a realm in which Labour or the Tories have completely and utterly collapsed.
 

shiftygiant

Gone Fishin'
Even if we say the LibDem's can hit their poll high of 34% (itself an artificial bounce that quickly subsided), rough estimates would still put them as the minority party in whatever coalition comes about. And even then, it's a high that's borderline implausible.

LibDems - 34% - 141 seats
Conservatives - 31% - 214 seats
Labour - 29% - 269 seats

As you can see by these rough numbers, very hung Parliament favouring Labour, who the LibDem's would be likely to go with. Now, I know Wikipedia is not a great source, but a quick look bought this up;
In February 2010, the Labour Government, which had been in power since 1997, used their majority to pass an amendment to their Constitutional Reform Bill to include a referendum on the introduction of AV to be held in the next Parliament, citing a desire to restore trust in Parliament in the wake of the 2009 expenses scandal.[13] A Liberal Democrat amendment to hold the referendum earlier, and on STV,[14] was defeated by 476 votes to 69.[13] There was insufficient time in the 2005–2010 Parliament for the Bill to be able to become law before Parliament was dissolved and, as such, the move was dismissed by several Conservative and Liberal Democrat MPs as a political manoeuvre.[13]

At the ensuing 2010 general election campaign, the Labour manifesto supported the introduction of AV via a referendum, to "ensure that every MP is supported by the majority of their constituents voting at each election".[15] The Liberal Democrats argued for proportional representation, preferably single transferable vote, and the Conservatives argued for the retention of FPTP. Both the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats proposed reducing the number of MPs, while the Conservative Party argued for more equal sized constituencies.

So if the LibDem's go with Labour, it'll be AV. If they go with the Tories, then it'll be AV. LibDem's might try the 'we're the kingmakers and we want STV', but that only works if your opponents are quivering wrecks, which neither Brown nor Cameron were, and nor were their alternatives, D-Mil/Balls and Osborne/Hague. Labour is offering genuine Electoral Reform, and it'd be silly to turn such a thing down and demand something else. The Tories can be negotiated with, but they will only go to AV.
 
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