WI: Liberal Democrat Leader Chris Huhne

[Uhura's Mazda]

In 2007, Ming Campbell resigned as Leader of the Lib Dems, inciting a leadership contest between Nick Clegg and Chris Huhne. The result was extremely close between the two of them, and was made properly dramatic by the fact that a bunch of votes arrived late and weren't officially counted, leading to a rumour that Huhne would have actually won if these votes had been included - apparently they wouldn't have changed the result, in actual fact.

So IOTL, we got nice fluffy Clegg in coalition with the Conservatives instead of dodgy speeding Huhne, whose career blew up halfway through the coalition years. So if it had been Huhne instead, how would the relationship with the Tories have been different (assuming the 2010 result would have been broadly the same, which I suppose it might not have)? Would he have been better able to get electoral reform through? Would he have compromised differently on major issues, or pulled out of the coalition at some point? Or would he merely have been forced out of office before 2010 as newspapers got hold of the speeding ticket story early?

 

[Gorrister]

Assuming the debates go ahead, Huhne probably won't impress as much as Clegg, and he'll probably defer to Brown a lot. I think the LibDems would end up doing worse, with maybe 52 or so seats. Huhne'd prefer a coalition with Labour, but it wouldn't happen imo. A Tory minority might ensue.

 

[Pericles]

I thought Huhne was in fact thought of the more charismatic candidate against Clegg. And I don't think he would be as supportive of a coalition with the Tories as Clegg was. Maybe a Tory minority or even some Lab-Lib colaition, perhaps a Rainbow Coalition, though that is unlikely. What do other people think?

 

[Politibrit]

The question is whether the scandal regarding the points on his licence would rear its head earlier as a result of his increased profile. If it does so just before the election, it could decimate them, and send the Tories into a comfortable majority.

Even if it doesn't, the consensus seems to be that he wouldn't do quite as well as Clegg would in the debates. I agree that would likely result in a further loss of seats, leaving the Tories either with an overall majority or just on the edge of one. He might go after that, or he might not, the Lib Dems lost seats and votes in 1992 but Ashdown was kept in post, and having gone through three leaders in 5 years, they might take the view that stability is needed. If he does go, Clegg would be frontrunner to replace him, and the Lib Dems, remaining as an anti establishment force outside of government, would be well placed to keep most of their support, or perhaps even build on it, with an incumbent Tory government sitting on the lions share of their target seats. That would also soak up some of the support for UKIP, the Greens, and to a lesser extent, the SNP, which came about partly as a result of their apparent assimilation into the status quo.

There is a decent chance that all of this just results in a Cameron/Clegg coalition five years later than in OTL, though one question would be whether euroscepticism still causes Cameron enough grief to call a referendum, and whether that takes place before or after the 2015 election.