The recent late night stuff between Jay and Conan inspired me to come up with this query. Lets say NBC decided not to go with Jay and instead Letterman took over the Tonight Show in 1992. Would Leno go to CBS? Would Letterman change his show as much as he did when he moved to CBS? Would this butterfly away Conan? How is Arsenio affected for that matter?
I don't believe Letterman changed his show that much when he moved to CBS. It's still the same old show for me with the
Top Ten List,
Stupid Pet Tricks,
Smalltown News, etc. The only difference
The Tonight Show with David Letterman would have with
Late Night with David Letterman is that it would be set in Hollywood, which is a big difference. The show would have a flashier, trendier, hipper style, guests would be bigger, etc. But despite a new appearance and setting, deep down I think it would still be the same old show, Dave's comic personality is too strong and forceful, I believe, to resist any pressure to change that Hollywood may offer.
Leno, instead of going to CBS, would I think be offered the spot on Dave's old Late Night show so Letterman comes on at 11:30 followed by Jay, who gets to stay in New York. This arrangement would indeed butterfly Conan but he could also be the one to end up on CBS or ABC where Jimmy Kimmel is now.