WI Leningrad falls

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Deleted member 14881

Let's say the Germans take Leningrad on Nov 41, what's the effect on WW2?
 

Daffy Duck

Banned
Leningrad

A lot of what-if's have been done on this scenario. Best case scenario for the Axis:The Germans would have been left in pretty good shape if they had taken Leningrad without a costly urban assault. -This would have required that the Finns helped surround Leningrad and participate in the seige..the Germans were just stretched way too thin all along the front. -They also needed to land their forces much closer to the city (than in our OTL). -Also, you'd need more forces to take the area..that would result in a pretty substantial divergence from OTL. -After taking Leningrad, the Germans would need to straighten their lines and prepare for the Russian winter (particularly brutal that year). I believe Blairwitch did a TL with this scenario (Operation Northern Fire)- an excellent story by the way.Had the Axis taken Leningrad early, had Finnish participation, and then straightened their battle lines (not going after Moscow), the Axis is in much better shape the next Spring to cut off Archangelsk, Murmansk and then Blitzkrieg their way East.Just my 2 cents worth
 
Funny, I thought more Finnish participation would Follow Leningrad falling, not Precede it.

Smaller immediate effects- well, Leningrad isn't tying up the besieging forces any more, and its war industries are most likely gone too.

More Importantly- the Murmansk route is probably a goner. Check your books for what % of winter lendlease that is (mostly Brit stuff?). IF Archangelsk falls, I wouldn't expect it to be early enough to make much difference.
 
thanks for the shoutout cam

i have posited in more than one thread, that outside of reorienting barbarossa itself; the POD that would be low hanging to get this is to not have the africa corps created; either by better italian performance or neutrality

with rommel's troops (two full strength panzer divisions plus replacements and 500 aircraft) as a reinforced panzer corps attached to panzer group 4 (army group north) the rate of advance would be much faster, and manstein and reinhardt wouldn't have to wait during the critical first weeks for the infantry to catch up since rommel could screen at least one flank.

manstein waited 5 days on the dvina river because he had nothing to screen his flanks; and this allowed the leningrad military district to countermand some really stupid orders that put everyone who could carry a gun (but many didn't have one) in front of manstein hyper inviting encirclement

if manstein was able to immediately advance in conjuntion with a rommel corps on his right flank, he would have enveloped and destroyed those troops which would have effectively left nothing between panzer group 4 and the city itself... it would have fallen off the march because the panzers would have been able to advance all out (the analogy would be Guderian's capture of Orel after the initial vyzama/bryansk battles)


the long term effects would be huge... the leningrad siege absorbed 5 german infantry corps which where enormously needed elsewhere; along with huge quantites of artillery, airpower and ammo

it also frees up a lot of army group north logistical assets since the army group can now get a decent amount of sea transport supply
 
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