WI: Leningrad Falls?

No, this actually has nothing to do with my ongoing timeline. However, I have noticed that since I've been on this board, I don't think this subject has really ever been looked at, which I find odd, because it seems like an interesting divergence.

Siege of Leningrad

So, say Operation Barbarossa goes off as it did IOTL, how plausible would it be for the Nazis to prevail in the Siege of Leningrad, either by the winter of 1941, or failing that, the Winter of 1942? The strategic position for the Soviets was at its absolute worst from November 1941 to February 1942. During this period, bread ration for civilians was 125 grams per day, oftened stretched with sawdust to ease the gnaw of hunger. During the first few weeks of January, 1942, there was no bread ration available for anyone but military personel and vital workers.

If no relief reaches Leningrad, then the city could fairly easily fall. Now, I don't know enough about the situation to know if the Germans could sufficiently strangle the city long enough for the city to collapse under starvation and disease.
 
There are several potential PODs that would make the starting-point of the siege much worse for the Soviets. The one I recall off the top of my head is when one KV-1 tank held up a company of PzII for several days all by its lonesome. There were all kinds of little delays that you could eliminate. The earlier they show up, the tighter the noose would be, generally.
 
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If Leningrad falls, it is a shipping route for food and supplies for the Wehrmacht as well. Baltic Sea traffic from Germany to Leningrad would greatly ease the supply nightmare for Barbarossa.

If Leningrad falls, it isn't going to be liberated quickly or easily. The Soviets may well hold the line at around Novgorod, but without Leningrad, there is nothing stopping Germany and Finland from linking up, which may well lead to a untenable position in Karelia.

Germany is in better shape for this working, but unless the Germans can take out Moscow, they're probably going to get rolled backward and beaten.
 
...Siege of Leningrad

So, say Operation Barbarossa goes off as it did IOTL, how plausible would it be for the Nazis to prevail in the Siege of Leningrad, either by the winter of 1941, or failing that, the Winter of 1942? The strategic position for the Soviets [at Leningrad] was at its absolute worst from November 1941 to February 1942. During this period, bread ration for civilians was 125 grams per day, often stretched with sawdust to ease the gnaw of hunger. During the first few weeks of January, 1942, there was no bread ration available for anyone but military personnel and vital workers.

If no relief reaches Leningrad, then the city could fairly easily fall. Now, I don't know enough about the situation to know if the Germans could sufficiently strangle the city long enough for the city to collapse under starvation and disease.

Considering that the Soviets held onto Leningrad IOTL by their fingertips, it wouldn't take very much for Leningrad to fall. Hold onto Schisselburg so that the "Road of Life" is reduced to an absolute trickle is one way to do it. Another is for the Finns to take a more active role in attacking from the north, cutting the Road at Lake Ladoga.
 
If Leningrad falls, it is a shipping route for food and supplies for the Wehrmacht as well. Baltic Sea traffic from Germany to Leningrad would greatly ease the supply nightmare for Barbarossa.

It wouldn't take much for the city of Leningrad to fall, but probably not before March 1942 (starvation takes a while) and that's too late to help ease the supply nightmare.

The Kronstadt naval base (part of "metropolitan" Leningrad) would be the last bastion to fall, probably not before Sep 1942.

I.. The Soviets may well hold the line at around Novgorod, but without Leningrad, there is nothing stopping Germany and Finland from linking up, which may well lead to a untenable position in Karelia.

True but who cares about Russian Karelia?

Germany is in better shape for this working, but unless the Germans can take out Moscow, they're probably going to get rolled backward and beaten.

Agreed
 
According to Paul Carell, in Hitler's War on Russia p.263

If formations of Eighteenth Army had been made available to 4th Panzer Group in good time and on a sufficient scale Colonel-General Hoepner would have had a chance of taking Leningrad with his mobile forces by a coup as early as the second half of August.

Such a result, would have sent shudders through Moscow's corridors of power. It may well have taken longer to subdue the city totally, but as others have suggested with Leningrad in German hands, it becomes a supply centre. German supply ships sail from Danzig and unload in Leningrad, easing the pressure on the railways.
 
According to Paul Carell, in Hitler's War on Russia p.263

If formations of Eighteenth Army had been made available to 4th Panzer Group in good time and on a sufficient scale Colonel-General Hoepner would have had a chance of taking Leningrad with his mobile forces by a coup as early as the second half of August.

Such a result, would have sent shudders through Moscow's corridors of power. It may well have taken longer to subdue the city totally, but as others have suggested with Leningrad in German hands, it becomes a supply centre. German supply ships sail from Danzig and unload in Leningrad, easing the pressure on the railways.

Panzers in Leningrad??? Leningrad is the Venice of the North. I guess that if I really worked at it, I could find someplace less suitable for Panzers.

As to supply ships from Danzig or anywhere else going to Leningrad, they'd have to sail past Kronstadt, a big Russian naval base.

Plus doesn't Leningrad port get socked in by ice, what 4-6 mo out of the year???
 
if manstein hadn't waited on the dvina river, but instead continued his advance allowing the infantry to follow into his breach (risking his flanks, but given how seriously he had disorganized the russians in front of him, it was a reasonable risk) he could have laid the ground work for a complete encirclment and capture

capturing leningrad is very beneficial to the germans, it frees up a good percentage of AGN's supply troops and air support to be employed in other sectors
 
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