WI: Lenin is captured and executed by Kerensky during the July Days?

Does this butterfly October? OTL Lenin was able to escape to Finland, but many were captured and imprisoned by the Provisional Government during July, and only released to help stop the Kornilov Revolt. If Lenin had been captured, IMO Kerensky and the PG would have realized the danger of leaving a demagogue like Lenin alive and executed him. Does this mean the November elections proceed as planned and result in a somewhat-democratic Russian republic, or would a right-wing coup occur against the government in Petrograd?

Your thoughts, denizens of AH.com?
 
Without Lenin Bolsheviks might not be so succesful for revolution but troubles is still coming. Kerensky wanted continue war against Germany and Austro-Hungary and Russians wanted peace. Surely there is much rebels against Kerensky's government. It is still possible that in Russia begins civil war.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
Kerensky was always doomed. A moderate socialist leaning to the right, mostly just the token socialist of a right wing government. Not saying Russia couldn't have become a democracy, just that Kerensky wouldn't be long lived either way.

The threat from revolutionary socialism is still there after Lenin's death, so is the threat from the right wing and the military. And Kerensky's big problem is that he want to keep Russia in the war (well so did Lenin at first).
 
SR Russia

With Lenin dead there is a good chance the Bolsheviks will split into a rabid faction led by Trotsky and a "lets work within the system for the time being" coalition probably led by Zinoviev.

Kerensky remains in power only until the RCA s elected after which Chernov the leader of the Socialist Revolutionary party takes over. IIRC the SR were badly split over the war and will probably nominally remain in the war but eschew offensive action. The big thing with the SR was land reform and they would last long enough to carry out their first wave of redistribution.
 
If you want to prevent a communist Russia, it might be better to have Kornilov usurp Kerensky successfully and have Lenin killed.
 
well meaning

I don;t think Alexander would have caused old Ulanov to swing.
as he said in Nicholas and Alexandera "I cannot put a man in jail for what he thinks. Its been too easy to lock up anyone you disagree with."
 
With Lenin dead there is a good chance the Bolsheviks will split into a rabid faction led by Trotsky and a "lets work within the system for the time being" coalition probably led by Zinoviev.

I think, if anything, Kerensky executing Lenin would harden and unify the Bolsheviks in their opposition to the Provisional Government. OTL a lot of Bolsheviks were arrested during the July Days but were later released; for Kerensky to order the execution of ANY of them, particularly the guy in charge, would have stuck out as arbitrary and exceptional. I think what would be more likely is if Lenin was, "Shot while attempting to escape" or otherwise killed accidentally or "accidentally" when the authorities come to arrest him.
 
Also, important to note, if you kill Lenin before the Kornilov revolt the Kornilov revolt would likely succeed anyway. So, we're definately looking at a Junta Russia.
 
Also, important to note, if you kill Lenin before the Kornilov revolt the Kornilov revolt would likely succeed anyway. So, we're definately looking at a Junta Russia.

That's a bit more iffy considering the revolt, assuming Kornilov actually planned to launch a coup in the first place which is a bit unclear, lost steam on its own before the recently re-armed Petrograd Soviet actually did anything. The bigger impact was that the coup created a rift between Kerensky and the military and put the Bolsheviks in the perfect position to orchestrate the October Revolution. If you kill Lenin it is entirely possible the whole affair could be butterflied away; one of the major concerns by Kornilov and the military brass was that Kerensky was pandering too much to the left at the expense of the nation. Kerensky having Lenin put up against a wall and shot could shore up his support with the military although that could just end with Kerensky as President for Life of an authoritarian Russia.
 
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