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Imagine a lucky competent aggressive commander at the Maryland battle. Maybe McLellan is taken ill.
The Army of Northern Virginia's retreat is blocked.
He loses a battlle near the Potomac. He surrenders his army.
Now does this mean that the CSA collapses?
I wonder if it could happen. If there was an surrender before December 31 the Emancipation Proclamation would have had no impact.
How long would slavery have lasted?