WI Lee mauls the Union army at Antietam.

Exactly as the title says, let's say Mclallen screws up big time.
mauling = 40%+ dead and Union army withdraws from Maryland.

How would the ACW look after that, would the Brits and French recognise the confederacy.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
Well, first off - it's quite possible, so long as Lee's forces are much better trained than they were OTL. (The training quality in the ACW was not very good, especially in the beginning.)

One way to do it would be a properly pressed bayonet assault late on (once all the Union troops have been committed to the battle - say it's Penders' and Fields' brigades who make the assault or some equivalent, done the "Napoleon way".) It's a gamble, but I think it's one we can (for the sake of argument) assume to be successful.


Now, as to the question of recognition.

Recognition does not equal military support - let's make that clear first.
We know from other situations that it was rare for the British to recognize someone before they'd unambiguously won their freedom, and it's possible the CSA could languish unrecognized despite such a victory as this...

...but what this victory does do is give the Union severe problems. No matter the scale of the casualties Lee's force has taken, it's just caused a huge morale blow to the trained manpower of the Union and put them on the defensive in a big way.
Perhaps more importantly, though, it demonstrates that Lee's method of fighting (this ATL one which has won the victory) is the right one. This is quite a correct assessment, and probably leads to the CSA winning further victories at least until the Union can copy it... and it also fundamentally changes the character of the Civil War, since it now means major "decisive" attacks can be made with reasionable confidence.
(OTL only a very few bayonet assaults succeeded.)


This pretty much upends the nature of the whole war and it's hard to say what happens.



...though perhaps we should instead say that the PoD is better French support in the first place, perhaps a few NCOs "unofficially" going over, because the French method of attack absolutely was to do a balls-out bayonet charge right through the firing area of defending riflemen! It worked wonders when fighting the Austrians.
(They didn't change to fire-based combat until the Austro-Prussian War of 1866.)

In case you're wondering, yes, bayonet charges are not rendered impossible by rifles or 12-lber Napoleons. They're not even rendered obsolete by machine guns and magazine rifles, or even assault rifles, since the British took many positions with the bayonet in the 1982 Falklands war and since the Japanese accomplished bayonet charges in the Russo-Japanese War in 1905. 1865 is far too early for technology to have rendered a bayonet charge impossible.
 
Not gonna happen. If Mac doesn't find Lee's lost order then I seriously doubt he'd have been brought to battle short of Lincoln himself ordering him and even then its a 50/50 shot at best. Mac was nothing if not cautious to the extreme and he'd never and I mean never let the AoTP get in a situation were it would be that destroyed.
 
Well, first off - it's quite possible, so long as Lee's forces are much better trained than they were OTL. (The training quality in the ACW was not very good, especially in the beginning.)

One way to do it would be a properly pressed bayonet assault late on (once all the Union troops have been committed to the battle - say it's Penders' and Fields' brigades who make the assault or some equivalent, done the "Napoleon way".) It's a gamble, but I think it's one we can (for the sake of argument) assume to be successful.

In the OTL battle, Little Mac had two Corps in reserve. With the correlation of forces it is virtually impossible for the Confederates to commit all of the Army of the Potomac in the battle, let alone with a general as determined not to commit troops as MacClellan leading it.

Now, as to the question of recognition.

Recognition does not equal military support - let's make that clear first.
We know from other situations that it was rare for the British to recognize someone before they'd unambiguously won their freedom, and it's possible the CSA could languish unrecognized despite such a victory as this...

...but what this victory does do is give the Union severe problems. No matter the scale of the casualties Lee's force has taken, it's just caused a huge morale blow to the trained manpower of the Union and put them on the defensive in a big way.
Perhaps more importantly, though, it demonstrates that Lee's method of fighting (this ATL one which has won the victory) is the right one. This is quite a correct assessment, and probably leads to the CSA winning further victories at least until the Union can copy it... and it also fundamentally changes the character of the Civil War, since it now means major "decisive" attacks can be made with reasionable confidence.
(OTL only a very few bayonet assaults succeeded.)


This pretty much upends the nature of the whole war and it's hard to say what happens.



...though perhaps we should instead say that the PoD is better French support in the first place, perhaps a few NCOs "unofficially" going over, because the French method of attack absolutely was to do a balls-out bayonet charge right through the firing area of defending riflemen! It worked wonders when fighting the Austrians.
(They didn't change to fire-based combat until the Austro-Prussian War of 1866.)

In case you're wondering, yes, bayonet charges are not rendered impossible by rifles or 12-lber Napoleons. They're not even rendered obsolete by machine guns and magazine rifles, or even assault rifles, since the British took many positions with the bayonet in the 1982 Falklands war and since the Japanese accomplished bayonet charges in the Russo-Japanese War in 1905. 1865 is far too early for technology to have rendered a bayonet charge impossible.

Bayonet charges have also been used in Afghanistan, again by the British. Totally not impossible, but the situation has to be right, otherwise you get Pickett's charge.
 

Saphroneth

Banned
In the OTL battle, Little Mac had two Corps in reserve. With the correlation of forces it is virtually impossible for the Confederates to commit all of the Army of the Potomac in the battle, let alone with a general as determined not to commit troops as MacClellan leading it.



Bayonet charges have also been used in Afghanistan, again by the British. Totally not impossible, but the situation has to be right, otherwise you get Pickett's charge.
I'm pretty sure the quality of force has to be right. I mean, that's kind of what I'm suggesting should be different - it's not as if the Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg had more killing power over the last hundred (or fifty!) yards than the Russian defenders with their magazine rifles in Manchuria. After all, the Army of the Potomac only had about one shot every twenty seconds.



And - out of curiosity - which corps were those held in reserve?
 
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I'm pretty sure the quality of force has to be right. I mean, that's kind of what I'm suggesting should be different - it's not as if the Army of the Potomac at Gettysburg had more killing power over the last hundred (or fifty!) yards than the Russian defenders with their magazine rifles in Manchuria. After all, the Army of the Potomac only had about one shot every twenty seconds.



And - out of curiosity - which corps were those held in reserve?

The AotP did for Pickett...

IIRC (I'm away from my books right now), V and VI Corps
 

Saphroneth

Banned
The AotP did for Pickett...

IIRC (I'm away from my books right now), V and VI Corps
Well, the point I was making was largely that the firepower of the Army of the Potomac was not sufficient to stop a well trained force - but of course it did stop Pickett, because the charge was not pressed by high enough quality infantry.
Same thing happened at New Orleans - the physical and moral appearance of the defences makes the attackers slow in the killing zone and engage in a firefight, instead of closing through the last two volleys (which can only cause a few % casualties at ACW accuracy rates) and breaking the enemy with the bayonet.



As for the Corps, as far as I am aware the brigades making up those corps were mostly committed to the battle line by the end of the 17th. They weren't sent on an assault, maybe, but they were in the line. (I'm unable to confirm because I can't find a map showing the brigade positions as of the end of the battle.)
Most of the brigades had launched some kind of assault or were unable to launch one - you don't put everyone into the assault, it runs the risk of having nothing at all to oppose a counterassault.

(Actually, sending in all Franklin's brigades, meaning essentially every unit in the army has gone in as an assault and bounced off, would pretty much mean that the Union army was not coherent enough to defend itself if an attack came in later on. That's a possible PoD, now I think of it.)
 
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Just as a note, it's borderline impossible for Antietam to produce 40%+ Union casualties - there just weren't enough Confederates to kill that many, no matter how badly the Union commanders screwed up.

You'd need a PoD back at Second Bull Run - find a way to utterly destroy Pope's army, and thus removing significant Union manpower, and that should even the odds out enough.
 
I'm a firm believer that special order 191 was a ruse, designed specifically to get McClellan to use his army. It's really, really hard to defeat an army that is not allowed to come out and play.

Lee wanted to destroy the army. between Lee not being the general people think he was and Mac being too cautious, the kill was not to be had.

had the kill come about the situation is a bit different. militarily, the North is still superior, but their morale may be flagging. that could be a difference maker. remember, morale was an issue otl. things going worse atl could be a problem.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
I'm a firm believer that special order 191 was a ruse, designed specifically to get McClellan to use his army. It's really, really hard to defeat an army that is not allowed to come out and play.

Such a ruse is supposed to feed the enemy false information in order to cause them to do something you want them to do, thereby giving you an advantage. The lost orders feed the enemy correct information and caused them to do something Lee didn't want them to do, putting Lee at a severe disadvantage.

The idea that Special Order 191 was a ruse simply makes no sense.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Hard to do much "mauling" when:

Exactly as the title says, let's say Mclallen screws up big time.
mauling = 40%+ dead and Union army withdraws from Maryland.

How would the ACW look after that, would the Brits and French recognise the confederacy.

Hard to do much "mauling" when Lee was:

1) outnumbered almost 2-1 (87,000 in the field with the Army of the Potomac vs. 45,000 with the Army of Northern Virginia);
2) on the defensive, and still suffering almost as many casualties (~10,000 vs ~13,000) as the US forces on the offensive;
3) suffering from both significant straggling/desertion (the US had substantial forces in the theater that were still unengaged, the rebels did not);
4) suffering from abysmal supply lines compared to the US; and
5) facing McClellan, who as a general officer was the definition of cautiously prudent or prudently cautious.

Other than that, it's a brilliant ... Oh hell, who am I kidding?

As far as recognition goes, the British and French had far too much good sense than to get involved in a losing bet.:rolleyes:

Best,
 
anaxagoras,
Lee knew he had to either face McClellen or worry about where he was. The theory goes that he wanted to face and defeat mac (or at least bloody him) but mac was far too cautious to ever march into battle, but would also be a threat. Lee had been trying to pull him into a battle, but Mac wouldn't oblige. thus, Lee set up a ruse. leave a set of orders so that Mac could find exactly where and when to put an end to Lee. unfortunately, the circumstances of the set of orders were hard to believe and Mac hesitated. Mac himself thought it was a ruse. ultimately, though, Lee got what he wanted, and then blew the battle.

the details of the note were rather circumspect (a hard rain for two days, lots of people going over the area, yet there was a pristine note, wrapped around cigars sure to garner notice, just waiting there for discovery by the right people), and historians are still questioning the chain of orders.

conventional wisdom says the south needed to defeat the north rather quickly, because the north could outlast the south in men and industry. Mac was notoriously reticent to engage his army, to the point where Lincoln wanted to borrow that army so he (Lincoln) could get on with the war.

It was a ruse, but Lee turned out to be not such a great general, and not for the last time. and I think Mac's slow, defensive ways turned out to be correct.
 
Thing is though the order told McClellan exactly what he was facing if it was a ruse at least one or two divisions of Lee's would've been kept out of the order. If you're trying to pull a ruse you don't tell the enemy exactly what you have right down to the last Man you leave some of your cards hidden still yet the order did not do that
 
Again a ruse is designed to give the enemy enough info to lure them into a trap WITHOUT giving them EVERYTHING. What did the Lost Order do? It gave Mac goddamn everything! Again that is not what you're supposed to do and if Lee truly did use the order to try and trick Mac then Lee was a goddamn idiot.
 
let's see:
the information in the order was not entirely correct.

it maneuvered Mac into a generally desired time and place of battle.

it allowed Lee to retire to a place of respite.

the battle was very costly to Lee, but did achieve it's purpose.

the alternative (SO191 stays safely tucked away or unwritten), per the theory is that Lee would be exposed, and unable to find a place of respite without exposing Richmond, and more likely to have to do battle in a more unfavorable site. IF there had been no ruse, and no lost orders, it could have been far worse for the south.

you tell me, what did Lee lose by losing the order? he wasn't on his way anywhere other than trying to find a place to rest. where does he rest? how does he get there? what are his alternatives?
 
Lee only got away because Mac being Mac was overly cautious. If he had followed through on Lee's army after the battle he could've bagged the AoNV and potentially ended the war 3 years early.
 
the alternative (SO191 stays safely tucked away or unwritten), per the theory is that Lee would be exposed, and unable to find a place of respite without exposing Richmond, and more likely to have to do battle in a more unfavorable site. IF there had been no ruse, and no lost orders, it could have been far worse for the south.

you tell me, what did Lee lose by losing the order? he wasn't on his way anywhere other than trying to find a place to rest. where does he rest? how does he get there? what are his alternatives?

And what precisely did he gain by "luring" McClellan to battle? His army was spread out across Maryland and the valley as it was attempting to cover his rear while he invaded the state to pillage it for supplies. McClellan being anemic and groping around blindly for Lee's army is perfect. He's too timid to leave Washington unguarded (and Lincoln would never allow the AotP to leave Washington unshielded while Lee is somewhere on the flank) and he believes he's outnumbered.

McClellan making an aggressive pursuit is the opposite of what Lee wants. Looking like a fool is so much the better.
 
And what precisely did he gain by "luring" McClellan to battle? His army was spread out across Maryland and the valley as it was attempting to cover his rear while he invaded the state to pillage it for supplies. McClellan being anemic and groping around blindly for Lee's army is perfect. He's too timid to leave Washington unguarded (and Lincoln would never allow the AotP to leave Washington unshielded while Lee is somewhere on the flank) and he believes he's outnumbered.

McClellan making an aggressive pursuit is the opposite of what Lee wants. Looking like a fool is so much the better.

Exactly! If Lee wanted the best outcome then its the Lost Order never having been lost because that means the AotP never leaves Washington and he gets free reign basically. At least until it finally gets to the point Lincoln either has to force Mac out to battle or replace him with someone who will. As I said above if this really was Lee attempting to lure Mac into battle he was a goddamn idiot.
 
Hard to do much "mauling" when Lee was:

1) outnumbered almost 2-1 (87,000 in the field with the Army of the Potomac vs. 45,000 with the Army of Northern Virginia);
2) on the defensive, and still suffering almost as many casualties (~10,000 vs ~13,000) as the US forces on the offensive;
3) suffering from both significant straggling/desertion (the US had substantial forces in the theater that were still unengaged, the rebels did not);
4) suffering from abysmal supply lines compared to the US; and
5) facing McClellan, who as a general officer was the definition of cautiously prudent or prudently cautious.

Other than that, it's a brilliant ... Oh hell, who am I kidding?

As far as recognition goes, the British and French had far too much good sense than to get involved in a losing bet.:rolleyes:

Best,

In short although "McLellan the Overcautious" was too cautious to win a total victory he was also too cautious to totally lose as well. Besides which "Lee the Overrated" never came close to winning such a victory and almost always lost a higher percentage of his men than his opponent. IIRC Lee had the highest casualty rate of any Army Commander in the ACW, North or South. He basically bled the CSA white.
 
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