WI: Lebanese Civil War in 1958?

Wolfpaw

Banned
All on the tin, folks. What if the Lebanese Crisis of 1958 were to metastasize into a full blown civil war? How would the West, the Soviets, the UAR, the Israelis, and others respond to such an event? What factions are likely to emerge in the attempts to dominate Lebanon?
 
You know, what would be interesting to know is what is the ethnic-religious makeup of Lebanon in 1958. My understanding is at independence Christians were the majority but by the 1970s they were no longer the largest religious group in the country, and that was the major sticking point in the power sharing structure that led to the war. In 1958 we have a lot less Sunnis and Palestinians since we don't have the PLO driven out of Jordan yet and the 6-Day war has not yet occured. That was a major factor in the destabilization.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
A challenge is that a census hasn't been carried out in Lebanon since 1932, and even that one was heavily politicized and exclusive. A 1956 Lebanese government estimate placed Christians at 54% and Muslims at 44%, but it was heavily criticized for deriving from the figures of a welfare program that did not include Muslims in areas distant from Beirut.

I know that Ben Gurion proposed to Anglo-French authorities in '56 a willingness for Israel to annex Lebanon up to the Litani River in order to make it a more "compact...Christian state." So things could get very interesting if Israel gets sucked into a Lebanese Civil War.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
This might be useful; the results of Lebanon's 1957 elections:

  • Independents: 51 seats, +16
  • Lebanese National Bloc: 5 seats, +2
  • Party of the Constitutional Union: 3 seats, 0
  • Kataeb Party: 2 seats, +1
  • Progressive Socialist Party: 2 seats, +1
  • Armenian Revolutionary Federation: 2 seats, +1
  • Syrian Social Nationalist Party: 1 seat, New
Voter turnout was about 53%
 
I would wonder how Israel would play into a 1958 war as well. With the PLO not a factor in TTL civil war they may be tempted to sit it out and not trigger the obvious international backlash that an intervention would cause.

However, the prospect of a Christian dominated Lebanon might be tempting to Israel. As would the prospect of a third republic in the UAR for Nasser.

I'd think that the UAR would look at the civil war as an opportunity to expand its influence though and maybe it's borders. If that happens, we might have the six-day war in 1958 with Lebanon as the catalyst
 
Even the 1932 census was heavily contested. In 1958, the Leftist pro-Palestinian camp was much weaker, but so were rightist militias compared to the 70s. However, the military itself was also weak. Syria had a different government.

I forgot where I got this from (but probably from the 70s), but this census could help explain the different attitudes of all the groups:

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Conclusions (with generalizations):
Shia (at this point very much underpowered): Stronger central government (a government which doesn't just ignore them), in favor of stronger ties with Arab world and somewhat with Syria. No naturalization of the Palestinians, majority believes they should be deported.
Sunnis: Divided on government structure, in favor of very strong ties with the Arab world but not so much with Syria. Naturalization of the Palestinians.
Maronites and other Catholics: Federal government (to ensure own revenues), Catholics are less in favor of this (they live more dispersed), against ties with the Arab world, against stronger ties with Syria. 90-85 percent believe Palestinians should be deported.
Orthodox Christians: Stronger central government, stronger ties with the Arab world but not so much with Syria, Palestinians can stay as refugees only.
Armenians:: Centralized government, strong ties with the Arab world but not with Syria, Palestinians should be naturalized.

I'd think that the UAR would look at the civil war as an opportunity to expand its influence though and maybe it's borders. If that happens, we might have the six-day war in 1958 with Lebanon as the catalyst

Such a breach in balance would provoke an Israeli reaction, and I doubt the fresh UAR could afford that at this time.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
A whole Arab-Israeli war might be a bit much, but the UAR would certainly be supporting militias and parties within Lebanon, likely its proxy the INM and Left-Arabist groups like the PSP and maybe even the Lebanese Communists. This would probably lead to a parallel pump-up of the right-wing militias which had been around Beirut since the late '30s and supported the Christian-dominated government, which the West and Israel are going to line up with in any struggle.
 
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