WI Le Pen wins in 2002

Uh, how? You do realize the only reason he made the second round was because the Left wasn't able to unify in '02? That he got absolutely crushed in the second round?

You'd need a PoD that's rather far back, to say the least - maybe a successful OAS coup? It's at least a start towards getting an outright fascist elected in '02.
 
Well, the distribution of votes in the first round was pretty random, what if Arlette Laguiller is his second round opponent?

I'm pretty sure a Le Pen win would still be doubly ASB.
 

cumbria

Banned
If Chevenments Citizens Movement dosnt run then the Socialists may well come first in the first round.
If the National Front dosnt split and Megret stays on board before the election then they could come second.
That would mean a run off between Le Pen and Jospin which would be interesting.
 
The only way I could see something like this happening is if a hard left candidate somehow was the person in the second round. if the Mainstream right were more split and that trotsjkite lady did MUCH better...
 
How about this turnout is very low leading to Le Pen winning narrowly. And even if this is a little ASB its definitly not being moved I just want to know what would happen if he won
 

cumbria

Banned
Only way is a Socialist v National Front run off.
Anything else would make it impossible.

First round result in OTL.

Jacques Chirac Rally for the Republic (Rassemblement pour la République) 5,665,855 19.88%

Jean-Marie Le Pen National Front (Front national) 4,804,713 16.86%

Lionel Jospin Socialist Party (Parti socialiste) 4,610,113 16.18%

François Bayrou Union for French Democracy (Union pour la démocratie française) 1,949,170 6.84%

Arlette Laguiller Workers' Struggle (Lutte ouvrière) 1,630,045 5.72%

As you can see there is no way Laguiller is going to come second.
Le Pen could come first with Megrets votes of around 3% and Socialists could come first with one of the leftists dropping out.
Citizens Movement which got 5.3% being the obvious choice.
 
A little ASB?
Seriously?

He went from 17% of the vote in the first round to 18% in the second round. He won about 5.5 million votes - not even a fifth of the electorate.

He's not getting in on low turnout, for that matter - the two-round system pretty much makes that impossible, since there'd be a strong 'anybody-but-Le Pen' movement in the second round (as there was in OTL), barring the extremely unlikely case of Le Pen and a too-far-left candidate being the only two options.
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I think Jospin v. Le Pen would still end up with Le Pen on the outside.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Only way is a Socialist v National Front run off.
Anything else would make it impossible.

First round results are not indicative of the second round. Jospin would have wiped the floor with LePen and unlike Chirac it wouldn't have had to be sold as "pick the crook, not the fascist". This was if anything the main source of votes for Le Pen - yes the french left is always split in a myriad minor parties come the presidential elections, but the right, too, has its splits, and Le Pen was not merely feeding on a rise of the right but also on discontent at the incumbent from large parts of the french right.
 
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Jospin would have wiped the floor with LePen and unlike Chirac it wouldn't have had to be sold as "pick the crook, not the fascist".
Actually, I think Le Pen would have done much better against Jospin (still a third or less of the vote of course) but in a head-to-head against a leftist, I think he would have consolidated a larger fraction of the rightmost Gaullists. Imagine the following political spectra (the exact distances are no doubt wrong but the relative locations are accurate):
______________________C___LP_

______J___________________LP_

Versus Chirac, Le Pen has nowhere to go to expand his vote share.
 

archaeogeek

Banned
Actually, I think Le Pen would have done much better against Jospin (still a third or less of the vote of course) but in a head-to-head against a leftist, I think he would have consolidated a larger fraction of the rightmost Gaullists. Imagine the following political spectra (the exact distances are no doubt wrong but the relative locations are accurate):
______________________C___LP_

______J___________________LP_

Versus Chirac, Le Pen has nowhere to go to expand his vote share.

Makes sense, I actually hadn't thought things through since there was the right discontent involved too.
 

cumbria

Banned
Cumbria in Enochs National Front didnt Le Pen make it into the second round in 1988?

In my aliternate history Jean-Marie Le Pen comes second in the first round of the French Presidential election with 19.6% of the vote..
Chirac is close behind on 18.9% with Mitterand first on 30%

Raymond Barre managed to come 4th with 14%

The second round is very interesting with Mitterand taking 57% of the vote to 43% by Le Pen.

In the near future part (when my internet is running right) Le Pen is set to stand aside with Chirac running for President and Le Pen going for Prime Minister (PR voting is still in place for reasons explained in my timeline).
 
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