WI: LBJ Runs in '68?

The interesting thing would be the October Surprise in Vietnam. A problem with LBJ releasing the news of Nixon's indirect talks with Thieu is that LBJ obtained that info through illegal wiretaps on the RVN Embassy and Nixon's campaign plane. (HHH's plane was also bugged, BTW) Humphrey was too gun-shy for that IOTL.
 
RB you might be right about RFK waiting until 1980. EMK did. The October suprise on finding out that Nixon was monkeying around with the peace treaty is something LBJ would not pass up. He was cold blooded in wanting to win. The fued between LBJ and RFK is real and deadly. But they both wanted to be President and Nixon was in the way. I read some where though that LBJ mellowed more on it than RFK did. Maybe the butterfly is LBJ accepting some of RFK's peace ideas in the winter of 68. But deep down inside did LBJ want to fight RFK for the nomination? Bobby was some one he could not bully or scare. Also a quick question, LBJ won a write in vote in NH. In todays world would that be seen has a losing effort?
 
RB you might be right about RFK waiting until 1980. EMK did. The October suprise on finding out that Nixon was monkeying around with the peace treaty is something LBJ would not pass up. He was cold blooded in wanting to win. The fued between LBJ and RFK is real and deadly. But they both wanted to be President and Nixon was in the way. I read some where though that LBJ mellowed more on it than RFK did. Maybe the butterfly is LBJ accepting some of RFK's peace ideas in the winter of 68. But deep down inside did LBJ want to fight RFK for the nomination? Bobby was some one he could not bully or scare. Also a quick question, LBJ won a write in vote in NH. In todays world would that be seen has a losing effort?

Nothing and no one (except his family, who were his biggest backers) is going to persuade RFK to withdraw under anything resembling OTL circumstances. He had made his decision during the summer of '67 according to Ted's True Compass account. LBJ is not going to accept any ideas from Kennedy, no matter how well intentioned.

Did LBJ want to fight that particular war: no. In any case, Kennedy would probably become POTUS at some point down the line if he's still alive, whether in '68 or '80.

Mellowing more: I know what you're thinking of- the conversations with his staff in April and May. Unfortunately, he didn't, otherwise he wouldn't have attempted to deny RFK burial in Arlington and later withhold the funding for a proper memorial. That funding was restored by Nixon via EO on his first day in office.

You're also spot-on about RFK being one of the handful of people whom LBJ could neither bully nor scare. To digress a bit, an overlooked aspect of their feud is that LBJ had an inferiority complex vis-a-vis RFK- details are in both DKG's LBJ books and Mutual Contempt. Keeping it short, LBJ from childhood had a view that Real Men (TM) could be either nerds or jocks, i.e. athletes or intellectuals, but not both. So RFK was manlier than LBJ by LBJ's own criteria.
 
If LBJ won the nomination in a context which looked illegirimate might RFK be the 4th party candidate?

If so could he (Bobby) win???
 
Change Of Running Mate and Future Elections?

Just a thought-and probably a longshot at that-but were LBJ to get the nomination in 68, might he have chosen a different running mate to HHH?
He might do this in an attempt to persuade the voaters he's taking notice of alternative viewpoints regarding the war and to shaw up support from democrats who favoured RFK. I doubt Bobby himself would take the Veep slot, but could someone more ideologically closer to RFK end up on the tickit to balance things?
If HHH is still Veep candidate and Nixon wins (which I personally think would be the most likely outcome), how does that affect the Dems line-up in 1972?
 
I don't see RFK running as an Independent, and even if he did, I don't think it would change the outcome of the general. Nixon still wins in '68; but the reforms in the Democratic party are tabled for the future.

So...1972, RFK has complete control of the Party apparatus, but Nixon is a strong incumbent. Does RFK take the nomination himself or put up a patsy for Nixon to slaughter? The smart thing to do would be to let Nixon destroy HHH, the Democrats reform after '72, and RFK strolls to the nomination (despite reform) and the Presidency in '76. But RFK doesn't strike me as the sort of man who stays out of a fight because it's prudent - I think he runs against Nixon in '72 himself, loses, and in '76 he has to run as the man who lost the last election - something Republicans generally don't care about but major baggage for a Democrat.
 
If LBJ survives the primaries, he'll lose the general in a landslide. The Left will stay home, and the Right will be even more opposed to Johnson than they were to Humphrey.
 
If Johnson did not withdraw,he would have lost outright in the Wisconein primary. Other primary defeats would follow. Party leaders would have seenhow unpopular he was and ditched him
 
Primaries meant nothing in 68 on the Dems side. The bosses still controlled it(nomination) and LBJ controlled the bosses. The last President not to get his parties nomination who really wanted it was Arthur in the 1880's. LBJ if he really wanted it would have got it. RFK would not have stopped him. Now Nixon may have beaten LBJ in 68. But I don't see it. HHH almost beat Nixon and he was a lot weaker than LBJ.
 
LBJ was polling worse than HHH in the South, which is why he nixed a comeback plot in mid-July. Plus he was petrified of dying in office or Wilsonian incapacitation. He'd listen to Lady Bird- and if somehow he won he'd die sometime in 1970 due to the stress.
 
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