WI: Latest PoD needed for Chinese victory in 1st Sino-Japanese War

I'm on a Paradox Games binge atm and i often enjoy playing as China in Victoria-Hearts of Iron series due to their massive early underdog status, but with HUGE potential once they beat down their main opponent (Japan).

The world viewed China and Japan as a contest between an elephant (China) and a mouse (Japan), the 1st SJW wasnt a complete curb stomp but it was a decisive enough win for Japan to gain alot of concessions out of it.

There were many factors in Chinese defeat, but i wonder, with as few butterflies as possible, what would it take for China to "win" and thus put a curb Japanese imperialism. A Chinese "win" would be defined as maintaining territorial integrity over their mainland possessions + Taiwan, plus having a >75% chance of winning a potential 2nd SJW. I'd figure after some time to lick their wounds and modernize some more Japan would take another crack at taking on Korea. This stipulation is mostly to prevent answers such as "Japanese warships hit a minefield and thus the naval situation goes to hell as troops cannot be resupplied". With such luck China can eke out a win in the 1st SJW, but in the 2nd theyre definitely gonna get shellacked assuming they make no major changes as such a win would likely result.

Edit: Just realized i posted in wrong forum. Can a mod plz move this to Pre-1900 forum!
 
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