WI: Larger Confederate Exodus to Brazil?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederados

So... what if, for whatever reason, let's say Reconstruction is harsher, so instead of 10,000 as stated in this article, what if it's hundreds of thousands of confederates who escape to Brazil, where slavery was still legal? The become a much larger demographic and influence on the government. What would be the affects on American, Brazil, and the world in general?
 
Well, this would make the United States a bit more interested in the internal affairs of Brazil. When Brazil finally moves to end slavery there may be more resistance leading to an actual Civil War, but it would still happen, especially if the pro-slavery faction is dumb enough to raise the ire of either Britain or the US.

Benjamin
 
What I thought would be an interesting thing that comes out of this is that if a significant number of white southerners flee to Brazil, blacks would become a solid majority in most of the South. Interesting, huh?
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confederados

So... what if, for whatever reason, let's say Reconstruction is harsher, so instead of 10,000 as stated in this article, what if it's hundreds of thousands of confederates who escape to Brazil, where slavery was still legal? The become a much larger demographic and influence on the government. What would be the affects on American, Brazil, and the world in general?

But would they want to stay in Brazil? If look at the Confederate immigration, it actually can be considered a failure. Only one of their colonies survived, and maybe half of them went back to the USA. It happened basically because the Confederates wanted to recreate in Brazil their lifestyle, they wanted to be a slaveholder upper class. However, when they came here they discovered that Brazilian slaves were much more expensive than they could afford after the war, and they simply didn't have the money to buy all the men they needed to run their farms. Also, many in São Paulo didn't want them as new "elite" in distant regions, and some farmers even thought to use the Confederate immigrants as a new source of workers to replace the already scarce slaves.

The only colony that prospered was the one in Santa Barbara do Oeste, where today is located the city of Americana. And that only happened because it was the only place where the few Confederates could find cheap lands and at the same time buy slaves to run their farms. And even there some were forced to live as small farmers, using their own family workforce to survive. And this was the reason why so all the other colonies failed. When people who had never worked by their own hands were forced to do it they simply gave up and went back to America.

An interesting example can be found in the colony of Juparanã, in the province of Espirito Santo. One immigrant, Josephine Foster, commented about the fact of her father, a 57 years old man who had never made hard work in his life, was forced to do it in order to survive: “...mainly by his own exertions, has cleared four acres of land, two of which he has already planted with corn, beans, sweet potatoes, mandioca.” And she says about the reason to the settlers go back to the USA: “Everything they have said in praise of Brazil and Brazilians, seems to fade away in the distance when they are thoroughly convinced that manual labor is the one thing needful to help us on to a fortune in this country.”

So, if you have much more Southerner immigrants you only would have more deluded people in Brazil. The price of slaves would become even more expensive due to the demand, and fewer of them would afford it. In the end, they would be forced to go back to America, find urban jobs (as some of them did IOTL) or endure a poorer lifestyle than they were used to in the South.
 
Another consequence would be the Brazilian Army impressing them into the army in large numbers, probably. The army during the 1860's was short in both manpower and ethics. They'd see the Confederate immigrants as experienced cannon-fodder to march straight into Paraguayan cannon fire. The immigrants would become even more disillusioned than they were OTL when large numbers of them are forced into wearing blue coats and sent to their deaths.
 

The Vulture

Banned
The War of the Triple Alliance was raging at the time. If a lot of experienced officers and NCOs were to migrate to Brazil, they would probably find themselves training Brazilian soldiers for the war against Paraguay. Hell, if a lot of men went to Brazil, it's at least slightly possible for generals like Forrest or politicians to get involved with the Brazilian conflict.

Long story short, they would probably be seen as a useful resource.
 
But would they want to stay in Brazil? If look at the Confederate immigration, it actually can be considered a failure. Only one of their colonies survived, and maybe half of them went back to the USA. It happened basically because the Confederates wanted to recreate in Brazil their lifestyle, they wanted to be a slaveholder upper class. However, when they came here they discovered that Brazilian slaves were much more expensive than they could afford after the war, and they simply didn't have the money to buy all the men they needed to run their farms. Also, many in São Paulo didn't want them as new "elite" in distant regions, and some farmers even thought to use the Confederate immigrants as a new source of workers to replace the already scarce slaves.

The only colony that prospered was the one in Santa Barbara do Oeste, where today is located the city of Americana. And that only happened because it was the only place where the few Confederates could find cheap lands and at the same time buy slaves to run their farms. And even there some were forced to live as small farmers, using their own family workforce to survive. And this was the reason why so all the other colonies failed. When people who had never worked by their own hands were forced to do it they simply gave up and went back to America.

An interesting example can be found in the colony of Juparanã, in the province of Espirito Santo. One immigrant, Josephine Foster, commented about the fact of her father, a 57 years old man who had never made hard work in his life, was forced to do it in order to survive: “...mainly by his own exertions, has cleared four acres of land, two of which he has already planted with corn, beans, sweet potatoes, mandioca.” And she says about the reason to the settlers go back to the USA: “Everything they have said in praise of Brazil and Brazilians, seems to fade away in the distance when they are thoroughly convinced that manual labor is the one thing needful to help us on to a fortune in this country.”

So, if you have much more Southerner immigrants you only would have more deluded people in Brazil. The price of slaves would become even more expensive due to the demand, and fewer of them would afford it. In the end, they would be forced to go back to America, find urban jobs (as some of them did IOTL) or endure a poorer lifestyle than they were used to in the South.


If slaves become so expensive, wouldn't there be a serious effort to start an illegal slave trade, say with Tippu Tip's assistance (Gathering East AFrican Slaves)? At first, it's really profitable to send them there and then the prices drop when supply rises to meet demand.

I know escaping the Royal Navy certainly would be difficult, but due to the higher prices, wouldn't these neo-slaver captains think its worth it?
 
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