How large could u make the post WW2 Soviet sphere? Like all of Germany and all of Korea, avoid the Sino-Soviet split.
If the Americans don't nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the resulting invasion would probably allow the Soviets to take Korea and a large chunk of Japan.
In this world how long until WW3?
Projections were that the US invasion of Japan would result in an American death toll in the millions. I think Truman would eventually have no choice but to ask Moscow for help.All of Germany is very unlikely. The German partition was driven by diplomatic considerations with the WAllies.
East Germany could maybe be a little larger.
All of Korea is easily possible.
France going Communist is close to ASB. And if France did go Communist, almost certainly it would split with the Soviets very soon.
Italy might be at some risk of going Communist (IMO it's hard with a post 1945 PoD). As was Greece (this is more likely, the Soviets supporting the Greek Communists or the Tito-Stalin split being avoided would have enabled the Communists to win).
Iran or at least Iranian Azerbaijan and Kurdistan could have gone Communist.
If the Soviets had a leader Mao could respect instead of Khrushchev, the Sino-Soviet split could have been avoided.
There are ways to avoid the Tito-Stalin split.
In the 3rd world, there's some chance that Zaire/Belgian Congo could go Communist. Indonesia is also a possibility.
If the cold war lasts long enough, Apartheid South Africa could have fallen to a Communist regime.
Perhaps India might have become a closer ally to the Soviets? Especially in a longer cold war scenario.
Has anyone ever considered how possible a Malayan Communist victory over the British was? That could get rather interesting if it were possible.
If Stalin died early or was less paranoid in his old age, Israel might have ended up in the Communist block, though I can't see it going Communist. Rather it might have ended up as a democratic state allied to the Soviets. Likely this would come at the cost of much Soviet influence with the Arab states, so that would shrink the Communist bloc in net.
I doubt the Soviets would or could take more than Hokkaido. As I understand it, they were scraping the bottom of the barrel to invade Manchuria and Korea and that was with the US begging for months for a Soviet invasion of the Japanese rear (though the US had started to change its mind by the time the Soviets actually invaded). By contrast, I don't think the US ever wanted Soviet help invading Japan itself.
fasquardon
Projections were that the US invasion of Japan would result in an American death toll in the millions. I think Truman would eventually have no choice but to ask Moscow for help.
There was never a realistic opening for the Soviet Union to invade Japan; Manchuria alone was past their abilities.
I think that the Soviets had the capability to take Hokkaido if the US is still tying down the bulk of Japanese air and sea assets. The bigger problem is: why the devil would Stalin want to invade Hokkaido? All it would do is kill Soviet citizens and annoy a very important and very powerful ally.
Even if we assume that Stalin was planning for the Cold War already (which I don't believe - I think the Cold War happened due to incompetence and misunderstanding, not due to Machiavellian planning), I don't see what military or political goal Soviet Hokkaido could play that would be worth the cost in even Stalin's eyes.
fasquardon
The Soviets didn't manage to secure the Kuriles until the end of September, and only managed to make landings in Northern Korea in October of 1945. Soviet capabilities were extremely limited for the latter operation, as their logistics were already grievously overstretched (Port Arthur had to be occupied using Japanese trains) and they lacked sufficient landing craft for major landings (Pyongyang was "taken" by Soviet officers flying in).
With regards to an ATL situation where Japan fights on, the Soviet advance in Manchuria had collapsed by the 15th while the Kwantung Army remained intact and fiercely fighting while still in control of the major cities; Stalin's foremost goal was always to be to secure Port Arthur and a strategic buffer for Vladivostok before worrying about the Japanese isles themselves. Hokkaido had also been reinforced by the Japanese, and continuing Japanese resistance in the Kuriles would probably drag on that affair for several additional months. By the time the Soviets could finish up their own going operations and have the logistics to support such an affair, the Japanese will have already surrendered to the Americans due to starvation.
It may sound simplistic, but suppose D-Day fails in 1944 and the Nazis keep France. Ultimately, the Red Army becomes the sole liberator of Europe and most of the countries become Soviet Satellites, a bloc much like Orwell's Eurasia. Britain remains allied with the US and Pacific coastal Asia (Japan, Korea) while China remains allied with the Russians.