WI Labour loses majority in 2005

Blair set a record in 2005 for getting a majority on the lowest popular vote percentage in UK electoral history.

The thing is that for whatever reason, the boundary commissioners had turned a really pro-Labour map. Its very hard to make popular vote adjustments to get a Tory majority, or even to get them the greatest number of seats in Parliament. This is the best I was able to do using electoral calculus:

Labour 290 31.2% of the vote (down 5%)

Conservative 259 36.2% of the vote (up 3%)

Lib Dem 65 24.6% of the vote (up 2%)

SNP/ PC 11 2.3% of the vote combined

N. Ireland 18

Here is the link showing the changes in the individual constituencies:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=36.2&LAB=31.2&LIB=24.6&UKIP=&Green=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllMajoritySorted&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2005ob

What would have happened after this result?
 
Labour-Lib Dem coalition, Kennedy would not work with Howard, he didn't even vote for the coalition with Cameron in OTL.

He would probably demand voting reform of some kind, maybe he'd get a referendum on PR, given that Blair himself and others in the party were fairly open to the idea. If not, AV is on the cards.
 
Blair's probably booted out, going from historic landslide majority to hung Parliament gets him sacked.

So Brown becomes PM and leads Lib-Labour coalition. The Tory leader stays on after such a strong showing (gaining nearly 100 seats).

The PoD could be Portillo wins 2001. Could Kenneedy work with Portillo? Even if he could, could Portillo get the numbers?
 
The thought of Prime Minister Michael Howard sends a delicious shiver up my spine. He always seemed so sneaky-evil, which is a great character type for someone who enjoys it when the bad guys win.
 

RyanF

Banned
It would be really interesting to see the Lib-Dems work out who to support for government after such a result.

Labour received the most seats, but the Conservatives received the most votes.

A Labour/Lib-Dem coaltion or Labour minority with Lib-Dem supply and confidence would hold 355 seats, a small majority but workable if they are in coalition.

A Conservative/Lib-Dem coalition would hold 324 seats, right on the edge of a majority; but if the Conservatives would bring in the DUP then they would have a very small majority.

Of course it all comes down to what Kennedy and the Lib-Dems decide; and I fear for Kennedy's personal problems were he to become Deputy Prime Minister, he may not be leader of the Lib-Dems nor Deputy Prime Minister in a year's time.
 
How expected is the loss? If the polling was looking that bad, and this is back when people still actually believed them, I do have to wonder if Blair would have called for a general election if he still had another year left IIRC. How much of a shock, or not, it is will affect how the parties react to it.
 
IIRC there were only about 16,000 votes from the 34 most marginal Labour Seats that gave them their 66-Seat Absolute Majority in 2005. Simply shifting them to the 2nd-place candidate is the minimum shift needed to take away the Labour Majority. Indeed, it was the tightness of those critical seats that helped to solidify the image that Labour had a massive advantage on the electoral boundaries, needing far fewer votes than any other party per-seat.

As for the after effect of a 163-Majority to Hung Parliament? Well this wasn't the first time a drop like this had occurred for Labour. The first such instance being in 1950 when their 146-Seat Majority (and just shy of an absolute majority of the Votes cast) was slashed to just 6, and 18 months later they were out. Something similar here isn't unrealistic, but knowing that might compel them to start making moves to prop up their support.

A Supply & Confidence with the Lib Dems is one way to maintain a stable government - I think the Lib Dems had already ruled out Coalition if such an event were to occur - until they feel they can try again and seek to reclaim more than half the seats available. Though given events some years down the line, they don't exactly have a lot of time.
 
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