I really doubt that Mongol expansion was going to be stunted because of some change in leadership (or advisorship, in the case of Kuchlug) in a neighboring state.
Warfare is almost built into the DNA of a Mongolian horde. Succession in a horde could go from father->son or brother->brother and the way this was largely decided was through acclamation of the horde populus, i.e. the major clan/family chieftains in a horde. And the way for a succession candidate to get and maintain said acclamation was either through prestige, or through bribes (i.e. control of the money-distribution segments of government). Both of which are most easily achieved through plunder of neighbors.
Kuchlug took over the Kara Khitai after he fled from the Mongols. If he's in Balasagun at all, it's probably because there's a unified Mongol polity involved.Okay, so are we to assume that one there were other unified mongol polities, who acted the same way that Genghis Khan would have? Are we also to assume that the Mongols would just conquer and conquer considering Persia may have been something that could have been avoided? I think the Kara-Khitan could have played it safe, and not get wiped out without Kuchlug at the helm.
I think the Mongols could be defeated at such an early stage. We're talking about the 1210s right now, before the Mongols gain that numerical superiority that really gives the word "horde" a new meaning. The Jurchen Jin and Western Xia are damaged but not completely destroyed. It would be improbable for the Jin, Xia, and Western Liao (Kara-Khitai) to all develop good leadership at the same time. And if the Mongols, being newly unified, begin to face major and successive defeats on each front, then its not to see how the horde begins collapsing due to infighting.I really doubt that Mongol expansion was going to be stunted because of some change in leadership (or advisorship, in the case of Kuchlug) in a neighboring state.
Warfare is almost built into the DNA of a Mongolian horde. Succession in a horde could go from father->son or brother->brother and the way this was largely decided was through acclamation of the horde populus, i.e. the major clan/family chieftains in a horde. And the way for a succession candidate to get and maintain said acclamation was either through prestige, or through bribes (i.e. control of the money-distribution segments of government). Both of which are most easily achieved through plunder of neighbors.
In a newly-unified horde such as the Mongol state, Genghis Khan would have needed to 'prove' that this new political arrangement is beneficial to his subordinate chieftains. As such, aggressive expansion on the part of the Mongols would have been pretty inevitable as the Mongol leadership sought new sources of plunder for distribution to the nomad elites. Whoever was in charge of the Kara-Khitan would have scarcely mattered.
Kuchlug took over the Kara Khitai after he fled from the Mongols. If he's in Balasagun at all, it's probably because there's a unified Mongol polity involved.