WI Kublai waites for the right fleet

When Kublai Khan invaded Japan for the second time in 1281, he sent over 4,000 ships. He required the invasion be mounted in a year. As a result, new ships were hastily built and seemingly of shoddy quality. There were some sound and very advanced ocean going ships, but the balance was commandeered riverine vessels.


Let’s assume a few things…Kublai had a Chinese advisor who knew which side his bread was buttered on. This advisor strongly recommended that the invasion of Japan be delayed until proper ships could be gathered and built. That would probably have taken about 3 years. Kublai agreed.


As a result the devastating typhoon, the Kamikaze, was avoided. The preparations of the Kamakura Shogunate were extended over an additional two years, perhaps leading to fatigue and weariness. Kublai, having sent 2 additional emissaries who were beheaded has perhaps found additional emissaries with a death wish for a third or fourth mission and is imperially pissed.


What happens if the Mongol invasion is able to land on the Japanese mainland? The Japanese have still not been adapted to the Mongol concept of war as a team effort. They will learn quickly, but for now they are still struggling with it.


***OK, let’s also forgo the argument that the Chinese could not build Ocean going ships. Their naval architecture was far in advance of anyone else at the time. The premise here is that Kublai has built proper ships for the mission and not commandeered every river ferry on the Yangtze.
 
The Japanese of Kyūshū were in fact better organized the 2nd time around. Besides the defensive wall they built at Hakata Bay, there were efforts to coordinate the defensive forces more cohesively in group action. The Japanese did take the effort to learn the lessons of the 1st invasion. Before the typhoon struck, the Japanese efforts were effective enough to deny the invading forces, in their initial attacks, a real beach head.

Having a more seaworthy fleet will give the fleet of Kublai a better chance of surviving and probably allow the invasion more time to succeed, but there are no guarantees that the invasion will get off the beaches.
 
whats easier might be to kill the typhoon ... a Typhoon hitting Hakata Bay as it did is a 'once-a-century' happening.
 
Even with better ships, there's still the problem of the Mongols suddenly trying to shift from being horse archers to amphibious marines. The Japanese' best bet would be to fight the Mongols on the beaches at close-quarters which the samurai excelled at while the Mongols tended to fight at a distance.
 
Even with better ships, there's still the problem of the Mongols suddenly trying to shift from being horse archers to amphibious marines. The Japanese' best bet would be to fight the Mongols on the beaches at close-quarters which the samurai excelled at while the Mongols tended to fight at a distance.

The final battle of the conquest of China, which resulted in end of the Song Dynasty, was the naval battle of Yamen in the waters near Hong Kong. On 19, March, 1279, the a greatly outnumbered Mongol fleet attacked the Song fleet and, employing tactics borrowed from land warfare and adapted to the naval environment, dealt a crushing blow to the Song Dynasty. This resulted in the deaths of virtually the entire court, including Emperor Huaizong, who was drowned when Lu Xiufu, the Prime Minister leapt into the sea taking the seven year old emperor with him.

During the conquest of China the Mongols had also gained some experience with amphibious assaults, although in a riverine environment.

My point is that the Mongols were no longer strictly a land army unable to function on a maritime field of battle.

The Japanese had learned some lessons from the first invasion. They had built a 25 mile long wall around Hakata Bay over a five year period. I expect the Samurai had also learned that the Bushido code was not followed by the Mongols and had adapted their tactics accordingly, but I expect that they were still not comfortable with the new style of battle.

Kublai, in the meantime, set up a Ministry for the Conquest of Japan in 1280. They developed the plans for the following year at the Khan’s urging. He wanted a quick revenge for the insults he had suffered at the hands of the Shogun.

The Japanese were able to field 40,000 samurai and other fighting men. The Yuan forces, divided into 2 Invasion fleets, was made up of Chinese, Korean and Mongol troops. The first to arrive was the fleet of about 900 ships and 40,000 troops which had sailed from Korea. The second fleet, which arrived almost 2 months later, consisted of around 3,500 ships and 100,000 men. The intention had been for the fleets to arrive about the same time.

But for the “Divine Wind”, The Japanese could well have been over-run.

The leadership of the second invasion in OTL largely survived because they were on the best ships, the ocean going ships which were able to ride out the typhoon. A huge part of the vessels involved were commandeered river craft or hastily built ships of questionable quality.

If the Ministry had been able to prevail on Kublai to wait for a proper invasion fleet to have been built, another 3 or so years, resulting in an invasion in 1283, how would that have impacted events?

In this case there would have been far more ships that were purpose built. They would have had deeper hulls that were appropriate for blue water. There would have been far fewer river craft and other vessels unsuited to the task at hand.

As it was the Japanese may have survived the day only due to a deus ex machina.
 
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