WI: Koxinga lives longer, invades Luzon

This one has been muddling in my mind for a bit.
What if Koxinga, notable Ming loyalist, admiral, and a pain-in-the-ass to the Qing, had lived longer?
I hear he was making threats to the spanish in the Philipines. Would he have gone there? And could he have succeeded in kicking the spanish out?
Would he have estabilished direct rule of Luzon as a province of the Tungning Kingdom or would he have preferred to keep it as an independent puppet kingdom?
And, finally, how does this affect the Spanish Empire and China?
 
This one has been muddling in my mind for a bit.
What if Koxinga, notable Ming loyalist, admiral, and a pain-in-the-ass to the Qing, had lived longer?
I hear he was making threats to the spanish in the Philipines. Would he have gone there? And could he have succeeded in kicking the spanish out?
Would he have estabilished direct rule of Luzon as a province of the Tungning Kingdom or would he have preferred to keep it as an independent puppet kingdom?
And, finally, how does this affect the Spanish Empire and China?

We can't know, but it seems to me the value of Luzon to Koxinga is to increase his strategic depth when the Qing comes for Taiwan. The Tungning Kingdom might have survived on Luzon had he succeeded.
 
Zheng Jing (Koxinga's son) OTL was going to invade the Philippines until the rebellion of the 3 feudatories caught him by surprise so it seems pretty plausible that Koxinga was serious about his intent to invade. We know that the Spanish on the islands were terrified since there forces were so weak and few. Apparently they had to withdraw forces from the war with the Muslims in the South. I'd have to research the subject more deeply in order to be sure but it seems pretty plausible that he could take the Philippines.

There isn't really a way to treat it as a puppet kingdom since the structures of the "state" are too weak. Probably Koxinga would simply replace the Spanish with his own administration. I'm not sure how colonially the islands themselves will still be treated given the vastly shortened distance between Taiwan compared with Spain. The Philippines certainly won't be as neglected and wasted as they were OTL with the Spanish pretty much solely using them as a trading post for Chinese products and American silver. In fact, the biggest short-term difference this makes to Tungning is in food production. The single greatest weakness of Tungning OTL was that they just didn't have enough people to work the land (which led to destructive famine). While Zheng Jing was able to remedy this in a few years, he needed to rely on soldiers made to work the land. This caused severe problems when he raised his army and attacked the Qing during the 3 feudatories revolt. Even though he had a fair amount of success in the beginning, the lack of food took its tole and was probably the single biggest reason for the mass defections to the Qing (instrumental in the conquest of Tungning incidentally). Conquering the Philippines means access to a bunch of workers in fairly productive land who can easily be put to work growing food to eat. I still don't think Tungning can dislodge the Qing, but they can avoid being so exhausted that they can't prevent an invasion. They put up a pretty good fight even in OTL after all. Also, as @Richard V says, it would increase Koxinga's strategic depth. Some of the elite in Tungning wanted to flee to the Philippines and conquer it when the Qing invaded Taiwan. However, they were too exhausted at the time to do so. Of course, with the increased food production they probably won't need to flee but it's nice to have options.

In terms of the Filipinos themselves, they fill a convenient subordinate role in the economy which the ethnic differences are going to play into. Tungning was basically a premodern ethno-state and they thought of themselves as the true inheritors of China against the "Barbarians". On the other hand, who knows what could happen in the future.

The Qing will be far more cautious with a Ming-loyalist state right next to them. Even if they accept vassalage as Zheng Jing was angling for (and offered by the Qing), they're far too dangerous to ignore. The Qing will probably maintain their awareness of the world and foreign affairs as well as military knowledge. Of course, they still have structural issues which I think makes it unlikely they'll survive the 19th c in this ATL but the world will be impacted by different Qing policies in the meantime.

The Spanish will have to get their Chinese products through Taiwan. I'm unsure as to the impact of an independent, long-range seafaring maritime power on Spanish America but it certainly won't be the same as OTL.
 
This one has been muddling in my mind for a bit.
What if Koxinga, notable Ming loyalist, admiral, and a pain-in-the-ass to the Qing, had lived longer?
I hear he was making threats to the spanish in the Philipines. Would he have gone there? And could he have succeeded in kicking the spanish out?
Would he have estabilished direct rule of Luzon as a province of the Tungning Kingdom or would he have preferred to keep it as an independent puppet kingdom?
And, finally, how does this affect the Spanish Empire and China?


Koxinga or his son would have invaded Southern Luzon and Visayas not Northern Luzon..and transfer Tungning there due to the chinese population being concentrated in Southern Luzon and Visayas..and the Spanish would have sold Northern Luzon and Sulawesi to the Portuguese due to their revolts..I think one mistake by the Spanish this scenario could have been the reality..
 
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