WI - Kornilov's Military Dictatorship?

If the pre war Tsarist office corps survives in a large part, wouldn't that imply changes to WWI that would butterfly away a lot of the specifics in the Revolution at least?
I think that the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies would have to survive for that to happen which would have to happen with something like Russian command adopted a more defensive position on the Eastern Front and not launch its OTL offensives. I don't know about the Russian Revolutions of 1917 but a lot would be changed - perhaps the Bolsheviks attempt an earlier coup if the Germans decide to send Lenin earlier than IOTL and they'd probably be crushed with most of the pre-war Russian army intact.
 
I think that the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies would have to survive for that to happen which would have to happen with something like Russian command adopted a more defensive position on the Eastern Front and not launch its OTL offensives. I don't know about the Russian Revolutions of 1917 but a lot would be changed - perhaps the Bolsheviks attempt an earlier coup if the Germans decide to send Lenin earlier than IOTL and they'd probably be crushed with most of the pre-war Russian army intact.
The situation could be unfavorable enough that the Bolsheviks sit still.
 
How successful would they be, though? Wouldn't they be more disorganized than the Bolsheviks?
Various revolutionaries could probably replace their losses faster than the Tsarist pre war officers (whose replacements probably wouldn't be of the same caliber). But since they're disorganized, the Civil War would probably turn into a war of attrition, and then the ethnic minorities will get antsy.
 
Various revolutionaries could probably replace their losses faster than the Tsarist pre war officers (whose replacements probably wouldn't be of the same caliber). But since they're disorganized, the Civil War would probably turn into a war of attrition, and then the ethnic minorities will get antsy.
How would the ATL Russian Civil War be?
 

The Avenger

Banned
If Kornilov launches "coup" with support of Kerensky, then it isn't a coup or military dictatorship, just Russian equivalent of Ebert–Groener pact.
Ebert, even though leftist, was keenly aware that German revolution could spiral out of control, so he came to an agreement with military establishment. That agreement amounted to "military establishment accepts new republican government and constitutional assembly, and government agrees to stop any further revolutionary activity".
There was no evidence that Kornilov wanted to seize power, he just wanted to crush Soviets and end "Dual Power", seemingly at instigation of Kerensky. If Kerensky didn't back off at last moment, Provisional government would gain full control of country.

Ebert allied with right-wing militia to defend french-style republic, whereas Kerensky released and armed those who wanted to replace it with soviet style republic. With "leader" like this at helm, there was no chance that Bolsheviks won't launch their coup.
If Kerensky doesn't backstab Kornilov, Bolsheviks stay in jail, and no further revolution takes place, or at worst is suppressed over week or two, like in Germany. Russian army won't disintegrate if government doesn't purge officer corps in aftermath of Kornilov affair.
Excellent post!

Also, in this TL, the Bolsheviks probably get shot rather than stay in jail. Indeed, you don't want a Bolshevik jailbreak!

In addition, AFAIK, Russia's problems with military discipline began with the Petrograd Soviet's Order No. 1. Of course, maybe Kornilov could get rid of this order and re-instill discipline in Russia's military.
 

The Avenger

Banned
To continue the analytical tool of a Weimar comparisons, enough Mensheviks may survive the civil war to scrape together the popular support for a shaky, somewhat leftist, but relatively democratic state. Ex-Menshevik supporters could be the Russian equivalent of the Weimar era SPD.
I think geography is the best rule of thumb to analyze the social conditions necessary for democracy in post-1900 Europe TLs. Representative government had its deepest European roots in the British isles. Parliamentary rule can last in the UK come hell or high water, and the same is generally true for Scandinavia and the low countries (with the exception of outside shocks like a foreign occupation).
The farther East and/or South you go from the UK, the less developed ready for democracy (w/ the perennial exception of Switzerland). On the spectrum of readiness for democracy, if Weimar can be seen as "catching up" to the UK then Russia would be playing catchup with Germany. Compared to Germany after Prussia, post-Czarist Russia as a whole would likely be even more agrarian, aristocratic, and undeveloped than the Junkers' strongholds in Prussia.

Agreed with your analysis here.

That said, though, do the Mensheviks continue Russia's participation in WWI in this TL?

Democracy in Russia at the stage seems like it could only be a brief experiment. Without the bolsheviks, a developmentalist dictatorship on the model of Ataturk or Deng Xiaoping seems like a more realistic medium to long term government for Russia in an 1900s AH.

A developmentalist dictatorship in Russia is still 1,000 times better than the Bolsheviks, though! :)

Also, democracy can be reestablished in Russia after this dictatorship collapses. :)
 
What exactly makes you say that it was too late? After all, the German Freikorps managed to crush the Communists in 1919--and that was after a German defeat in WWI!

The situations were quite different. Germany had a much larger and more powerful middle class than Russia; the Russian army consisted overwhelmingly of peasants-in-uniform who had been radicalized by Bolshevik propaganda; and Russian moderate socialists in 1917 would have made common cause with the Bolsheviks against any right-wing coup attempt. (In fact, in part it was precisely the experience of Russia, and the fact that Ebert and Noske were determined not to share Kerensky's fate, that made the SPD so firm in putting down the far left in Germany.)
 
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The Avenger

Banned
The situations were quite different. Germany had a much larger and more powerful middle class than Russia;

Good point.

the Russian army consisted overwhelmingly of peasants-in-uniform who had been radicalized by Bolshevik propaganda; and Russian moderate socialists in 1917 would have made common cause with the Bolsheviks against any right-wing coup attempt.

Was there any hope for a middle ground? After all, there was a risk of the revolution being undone by a right-wing coup, but there was also a risk of the Bolsheviks taking Russia out of the war and establishing their own dictatorship in Russia. Specifically, could the moderate socialists have tried to create their own power base within the Russian military?

(In fact, in part it was precisely the experience of Russia, and the fact that Ebert and Noske were determined not to share Kerensky fate, that made the SPD so firm in putting down the far left in Germany.)

That's very interesting.

Also, as a side note, if I was a Russian peasant in 1917, I'd probably be attracted to the idea of continuing the war until the very end. I mean, sure, I could die in the process, but this war would result in territorial expansion for Russia--something which could strengthen it later on. I mean, if I survived the war and Russia will finish the war in one piece, then I'd like to move to, say, Trebizond in my retirement years and watch that area become part of a Russian Sun Belt. :)
 
The situations were quite different. Germany had a much larger and more powerful middle class than Russia; the Russian army consisted overwhelmingly of peasants-in-uniform who had been radicalized by Bolshevik propaganda; and Russian moderate socialists in 1917 would have made common cause with the Bolsheviks against any right-wing coup attempt. (In fact, in part it was precisely the experience of Russia, and the fact that Ebert and Noske were determined not to share Kerensky's fate, that made the SPD so firm in putting down the far left in Germany.)

And of course the Freikorps were a relatively small minority. Most of the German army melted away and went home as soon as they were safely back.

The Freikorps sufficed to crush scattered Spartakist risings, but they would have been wholly inadequate to resist the Entente had hostilities been resumed. And similarly, whatever forces Kornilov could mobilise against the Bolsheviks would have been far too few to continue the war against Germany.

Also the German Revolution was a largely urban affair. Right wing forces were able to march across country generally unopposed and frequently welcomed. Richard M Watt's The Kings Depart gives a good account of it all. In Russia matters would have been (and OTL were) quite different.
 
They only need to avoid making a separate peace, though. After all, it's the effort that counts!


Effort to do what?

If the army is melting away or engaging in a civil war, it an do nothing against the Germans. So does it really matter whether the Russian government (whether under Kornilov or under whoever has overthrown him) signs a piece of paper or not?
 

The Avenger

Banned
Effort to do what?

If the army is melting away or engaging in a civil war, it an do nothing against the Germans. So does it really matter whether the Russian government (whether under Kornilov or under whoever has overthrown him) signs a piece of paper or not?
Good point!

Now, what happens afterwards? Does Russia's periphery still try to secede?
 
Agreed with your analysis here.

That said, though, do the Mensheviks continue Russia's participation in WWI in this TL?



A developmentalist dictatorship in Russia is still 1,000 times better than the Bolsheviks, though! :)

Also, democracy can be reestablished in Russia after this dictatorship collapses. :)
The Mensheviks would probably still continue the war, the industrial capacity of the former pale of settlement was too important to lose. Plus, influence over Straits are still up for grabs if they continue Czarist co-operation with the allies. Resolving the Polish question would be especially difficult if the Russian government had the strength to re-take its pre-war territories, or gain Galicia.
 

The Avenger

Banned
The Mensheviks would probably still continue the war, the industrial capacity of the former pale of settlement was too important to lose.

What if Germany offers a more generous peace deal where Russia only loses Poland, Lithuania, and Courland, though?

Plus, influence over Straits are still up for grabs if they continue Czarist co-operation with the allies.

How much did the Mensheviks actually care about the Straits, though?

Resolving the Polish question would be especially difficult if the Russian government had the strength to re-take its pre-war territories, or gain Galicia.

I think that Russia would give Poland independence while taking eastern Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia for itself if it continues the war.
 
What if Germany offers a more generous peace deal where Russia only loses Poland, Lithuania, and Courland, though?




How much did the Mensheviks actually care about the Straits, though?

I think that Russia would give Poland independence while taking eastern Galicia and Subcarpathian Ruthenia for itself if it continues the war.

The Mensheviks might benefit from losing Poland. No government wants to lose face by surrendering territory, and the nationalists will howl about defeatism, but the end result would be a more cohesive Russia. Russia could bring the Belarusians, Ukrainians into a coherent nationality around Pan-Slavism and the Orthodox Church, but Poles wanted no part of Russian rule after a century of forced assimilations and crushed uprisings. Any attempt to re-assert Russian rule in Poland postwar would be a more extreme version of post-WW2 anti-Soviet resistance in western Ukraine and the Baltic States.

However, I think Galicia is too much of a poison pill for outright annexation. The region resisted Soviet rule well into the '50s, and stronger national consciousness there helped "infect" the rest of Ukraine with separatist sentiment from Moscow's standpoint. During the Polish-Soviet War, the Soviets briefly planned a Galician Soviet Socialist Republic separate from the Ukrainian SSR. If I was a Russian adviser, I'd leave Galicia as a separate country, a Russian client state can still serve the same purpose of strategic depth as outright annexation. An independent Galicia would likely have a similar relationship with Russia as Belarus OTL.
 
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