WI: Korean War at 1979

[MonAngel]

In your post you disregarded I. the Sino-Soviet split, which has become quite severe by now; II. the fact that NK has pre-emptively started the attack, which is important when making treaties post-war; III. and that the artillery are positioned to attack the SK forces along the DMZ, not for Seoul(the capital city is their objective to reach by infantry, not artillery). Thus the outcome may be different from what you imagine.

Soviet and PRC doesn't have to buddy-buddy. Their relationship were very bad (Mongolia had large Soviets troops tasked to storm Beijing in event of conflict). But one thing is clear. Both Soviet and PRC doesn't want to NK communist regime collapsed or weakened(Kim family can be replaced with more competent one). Even so for PRC they don't want NK to fall under Soviet. So PRC is determined to shore-up NK. Again they doesn't need to fight. It is just establish old status-quo.

They might be OK with NK condemned but they won't accept borders are re-drawn. This is during Cold War Era and one of the most sacred rule was keep status-quo and not re-draw borders. Internal regimes can be replaced but no border adjustment, specially if its country from First or Second World.

And Korean crisis will precede Afghan intervention. So Soviet intervention could be butterflied altogether.

EDIT: Because of Kim acted stupidly, my scenario involves UN troops taking control of DMZ. So some idiot didn't lead to WW III.

 

[Forcon]

I just cannot see SK and US forces retreating only 5km. Given that South Korea had just come out of a dictatorship (Unless I got the date wrong) and the US military was in at its post-Vietnam worst, the North Koreans probably get all the way to Wonju before the US has the forces in place to counterattack. If the US does not interfere (almost ASB), the North Koreans will take all of South Korea. If China intervenes, I expect that the result is the same as the first Korean War-Chinbese victory's all the way to the old border, followed by stalemate.
Whatever happens, this is a great oppertunity to get the USSR and China back together again.

 

[THE KING IS DEAD]

I just cannot see SK and US forces retreating only 5km. Given that South Korea had just come out of a dictatorship (Unless I got the date wrong) and the US military was in at its post-Vietnam worst, the North Koreans probably get all the way to Wonju before the US has the forces in place to counterattack. If the US does not interfere (almost ASB), the North Koreans will take all of South Korea. If China intervenes, I expect that the result is the same as the first Korean War-Chinbese victory's all the way to the old border, followed by stalemate.
Whatever happens, this is a great oppertunity to get the USSR and China back together again.

Hi, I'm going to be a custodian on this thread while he's away (this thread lived, this thread lives, this thread will live). Here's the part of OP that might shed light on the military plan.

Concerned that the US withdrawal from Vietnam might lead the DPRK to question American commitment to defend South Korea, Hollingsworth altered the focus of OPLAN 50-27 to a forward-based offensive strategy. The goal was to convince North Korea that an invasion could bring an end to its regime. The new posture moved most allied artillery, tanks,and infantry forward toward the Military Control Zone (MCZ), which runs five miles south of the DMZ. General Hollingsworth announced plans to strike north after these forces defeated the invasion. He assigned two brigades of the US 2nd Division to seize the North Korean staging city of Kaesong just across the DMZ, and promised around-the-clock raids on the North by B-52 bombers and a "violent,short war " to capture the capital of Pyongyang.